My Sports Trading Journey

Lays for Saturday 28/1

2012-01-28T13:00:00.001Z

Today’s lay selections:
1330 Cheltenham– Royales Charter
1345 Leopardstown - AupCharlie
1435 Cheltenham - Time For Rupert
1500 Lingfield – Nubar Boy

Friday 27/1 Results

2012-01-28T01:19:00.000Z

P&L to a liability of £100

1710 Wolverhampton –Garstang 2nd BSP 11.00                      £10.00
1810 Wolverhampton – Spin Cast 6th BSP 5.90 3rd fav            £20.41
1910 Wolverhampton – Not Til Monday 8th .BSP 8.00          £14.29

Less 5% comm = £42.46 Cumulative = £59.77

Lays for Friday 27/1

2012-01-27T12:32:00.002Z

Today’s lay selections:

1710 Wolverhampton –Garstang curr 6.00
1810 Wolverhampton – Spin Cast curr 8.60
1910 Wolverhampton – Not Til Monday curr 6.00

Thursday 26/1 Results

2012-01-27T02:32:00.001Z

Not quite a clean sweep today but the last was a very unlucky race. Cut the Cackle had the momentum and was always likely to win as they approached the final furlong but was cut across and had to check before going wide and then gained very quickly and only just fell short on the line.

These things are always likely to happen and will no doubt even themselves out.

P&L to £100 liability. I am not suggesting to lay for this amount or even to lay at all. It is just a marker to monitor the performance.

1525 Warwick – Ockey de Neul 3rd BSP 5.60                            £14.71
1555 Warwick – Sizing America 9th BSP 12.50                           £8.70
1935 Kempton – Rightcar Won BSP 4.75 (highest in play 16)    -£100.00

Less 5% comm = -£77.76   Cumulative = £17.31

Lays for Thursday

2012-01-26T12:11:00.001Z

I am out and about today so just a quick post with today's lays. Please remember that these are not selected by me and should only be followed to see how they perform as they are sent to me from an old friend who backs horses only but says these are the strongest to lose.

Today’s lay selections:
1525 Warwick – Ockey de Neul curr 4.4
1555 Warwick – Sizing America curr 11.5
1935 Kempton - Rightcar curr 4.2

Warwick - Good to Soft-Soft in places on Hurdles course.
Kempton Park - Standard

No Place to Hide

2012-01-26T00:17:00.000Z

Just a quick update on the those lays I put out earlier today. All five were not only winning lays but the selections were never in serious contention and none were even placed.

14:20 Lingfield - City Legend 7th BSP 7.80 3rd fav liability to £100 = £14.71
15:20 Lingfield - Sumani 6th BSP 3.60 fav liability to £100 = £38.46
15:30 Hereford - Bull Market PU BSP 13.00 liability to £100 = £8.33
16:20 Lingfield - Ermytrude 4th BSP 4.50 2nd fav liability to £100 = £28.57
19:40 Kempton - Pharoh Jake 6th BSP 11.00 liability to £100 = £10.00

Less 5% commission = profit of £95.07

Trading Update

2012-01-25T11:40:00.002Z

It's been four weeks since my last post and my commitment to blogging every day is easier said than done. Even though I am not currently in a 9 to 5 job there just aren't enough hours in the day.

I review the next three days fixtures and prepare the newsletter around 7.30am which takes a good two hours. That leaves me about three to four hours to do other daily stuff such as shopping, doing the normal chores of daily family life and relaxing and catching up with what I have recorded on sky plus. Then I am back in front of the laptop for three to four hours trading the horses. The last race is usually around 4pm which is the time when my wife arrives back from work and the kids from school. I then have a few hours with the family before the evenings football starts and I am usually at the console from 6.30pm for four hours. It's incredible how quick the day goes. It will be Christmas soon!

My general trading has been coming on leaps and bounds. Horse racing especially as I combine my own style of trading with Robbo's service over at Trading Football. His single back to lay approach is really paying off and the guy never seems to sleep as he is trading football in the evenings and tennis throughout the night. On top of this he has time to maintain his blog at http://robbotradingpro.blogspot.com/.

With so much going on at the moment I don't have time to join the TF community for the football and to be perfectly honest I do miss it. Bingo, Ads and Robbo are super people with a great service and have very knowledgeable senior traders working with them. I wouldn't be trading any football if it weren't for them but I wouldn't change what I am doing in my life right now. It's hard work but thoroughly enjoyable.

The Homer Family picks have been maintaining there usual strong strike rate since the middle of December after an awful four weeks following the launch.The introduction of the Extreme HomerDog has been particularly encouraging. This strat is supposed to have a lower strike rate with a larger payout as the home side is by far the underdog. There is nothing that you can gain from the stats to justify the selection other than they are at home but the strike rate is on a par with all it's siblings with profits for a low CS result an average of £50 compared to the others that have a low score CS average of £23. A great example was a game last week between Doxa Dramas and mid table Aris Salonika. Doxa are rock bottom of the Greek league and had scored one goal all season. Their stats were P12, W0, D3, L9. Doxa opened the scoring midway through the first half but were eventually beaten 1-3. We don't care who wins the game as long as the home team makes some sort of effort to score a goal. At 1-0 the trade was greened up for a £40 profit and on to the next game.

Picks aside, the daily list of qualifying games consistently have more wins and scratches to losers so whilst there could be consecutive losing trades, at the back of your mind you will always know that the true average will come to the fore.

The results on the right show the P&L if you traded the same games as me on single stakes.

I bumped into an old friend about three weeks ago at a wedding. Hadn't seen him for a couple of years. He has always backed the horses and had claimed to be very good at it but I never thought much about it. I told him what I was doing and how Betfair works etc. He told me that he backs at the bookies but not interested at all about anything online as hasn't a clue about computers and has no interest in it at all. He knows his horses and what was really interesting was when he told me how he makes his picks and the way he rules horses out. I asked him had he ever thought of picking good priced horses to lose and I was shocked to hear that he had never even thought about it so I asked him if we could keep in contact and that whenever he did his selections could he let me know the best horses that he was very confident would not have a chance. He didn't even have an email address so would call me but I have since sorted it out for him.

Now I know nothing about horses apart from the fact they have four legs and make lots of mess that I have to avoid on approach to QPR! He tells me the major contributor to his selections is the going and that he does his selections early in the morning but often changes them if the going changes and doesn't submit his bets until later in the day. He has been sending me a few selections a day from the last 10 days and there have been just two occasions where the horse has won the race and prices have been under 5's. What I find really interesting is that in most of the selections the horse has not even been in contention with 2 to 3 furlongs to go. They often disappear in the back straight. It has certainly been profitable for me.

So I thought it would be interesting to put the selections up here and we will see how they continue to perform. I will only put selections where Betfair price is no more than 16. To get better prices the lay can be made against the SP with a maximum price set or alternatively waiting for a better price in play.

1420 Lingfield– City Legend currently 5.7 to lay
1520 Lingfield - Sumani currently 4.5 to lay
1530 Hereford – Bull Market currently 9.0 to lay
1620 Lingfield - Ermytrude currently 3.6 to lay
1940 Kempton –Pharoh Jake currently 12.5 to lay but there is a big gap as the back is 10.0

Lingfield -Standard
Hereford - Soft
Kempton - Standard

As he doesn't lay horses he has no staking plan but for now let's see where this take us. However to have some kind of marker I will record as a £100 liability to SP.

So that's another thing that will keep me busy!

Turkey is not just for Christmas

2011-12-24T04:53:00.002Z

The Homer is starting to pick up again with 7 wins and 1 scratch in the last 9 trades. Three of these were Turkish league games with teams that I can barely announce. It was surprising how high the liquidity was for these games. It was not tremendous but certainly more than enough to trade. Perhaps it was because there were not too many games on at the same time.

I traded a Portugal game for the first time. I decided to trade it as I had a considerable green from scalping 0-0 and the fact it was a cup QF game and the other three ties all finished as overs. Unfortunately it was all over in two minutes and the game was a scratch. The final score was 2-2.

December trades at single stakes is currently showing a profit of £94. Not fantastic but a welcome change to November.

I would like to take this opportunity to wish you and your family a very happy Christmas.

December Update

2011-12-15T10:11:00.000Z

It has been 10 days since my last post but it only seems like yesterday. I seem to be far busier than when I was working and can't believe that Christmas is almost upon us. I know I said that I would be posting every day but it really is an impossible task at the moment.

Above is my P&L since last time (P&L blog bashers look away now) and as you can see I have been treading water. Positives are that as the first two days were very good, the monthly profit is £253. Negatives are that £23 over the10 days is not going to pay the bills!

I have updated the Homer traded results page and December is more or less running level. It is an improvement on the struggle in November but not anywhere near the fantastic performance before then. So what's gone wrong? I took the day off trading to concentrate on evaluating my results. Is it just unlucky or was my previous six months of success just a lucky streak? I think I may have a contributing factor and it's in England!

Between May and September I traded 23 English league games:

16 profit

1 scratch

6 losses

Between October and today I have traded 27 English league games

10 profit

3 scratch

14 losses

I have traded a total of 86 games since the beginning of October and the English games has counted towards 34% of those. It is the only country where losses are more than the wins. My best success was between May and August where English games were few.

How many English games did I trade between May and July? The answer is zero.

If I remove the English league my trend continues as normal. My overall no loss strike rate increases from 69% to 72%.

Having said all that I have examined many statistic sites and cannot find a trend that differs in the English league so perhaps I am just trying too hard and picking far more English fixtures than I should to make the weekend far more interesting for members. I will certainly be cutting down in the future. I am certainly not relaxed as I used to be and this could also be affecting my judgement.

I am currently testing a new variation. Extreme HomerDog. This is where the away team is by far the favourite and a winning trade should give a profit around the forties against single stakes ROI should be at least 75%. I have traded three with two winners of which one was the FG and one loser.

The horse racing has been hit and miss too. I have been upping my stakes which has only meant that instead of winning and losing £5 to £20 I am now winning and losing £10 to £40. I traded 146 races over the past 10 days and have come out with a profit of £83 or £1.76 per race. This is a mixture between pre-race and in running. I just can't get out of the 'round in circles' mode that has affected me since I started trading horses nearly five years ago. I invested in some pre race training a few months back which I have not focused on as I have been so busy with Homer but will be devoting time towards it especially as I now have time to trade in the afternoons.

I will give the trading until the end of January and if the results do not show significant improvement to sustain a decent living then I will be looking for a more stable income.

Boxing Clever

2011-12-02T23:13:00.001Z

December has got off to a super start with profits across Horse Racing, Football and this evenings Boxing match which I had no intention of getting involved with.The football P&L is a little lower then the months Homer P&L to the right due to a losing non Homer trade.

I was watching the WBA middleweight clash between the champion Sturm and outsider Murray. Sturm got off to a good start but Murray was slowly coming into it and by the end of the ninth round I had them level. I had a look at the market at that point and Sturm was trading around the late 1.30's and the draw was 42's. First thing I did was look to see if I was watching the fight live or was my Sky Plus running behind! No, everything was in order and I just couldn't believe how the market and priced the fight up. To say there was value was an understatement!

I don't know too much about the Boxing market but my eyes are in good working order. So I placed a lay of £50 on Sturm and popped a tiny £1 back on the draw which added to the amount from the lay. Perhaps in hindsight I should have lumped on but I wasn't totally comfortable as this sport is one that I rarely get involved with.

At the end I thought that Murray had just done enough to win but was extremely pleased to find that the fight was a draw and a nice £90 profit. You can see below that even after the fight had finished Sturm was 1.25.

Round in Circles

2011-11-30T22:49:00.000Z

Running a service on my own plus trying to get a good days trading behind me is far harder than I could ever have imagined. I seem to always be on the go and spare time is at a premium. This is why there have been a few days without a post. However I am thoroughly enjoying myself and wouldn't have it any other way.

The screenshot above looks like I have had a fairly placid last few days but it has been far from that. The horse racing includes two separate £100 losses. I always make sure that when I back in a chase or hurdles, I stay in the trade for as little time as possible. In these cases I was extremely unlucky as both fell a few seconds after I opened the trade.

It was a similar situation with the football. Having multi staked with two losers on Saturday and then a loss on the Swansea game on Sunday, I then staked very heavily on the Liverpool v Manchester City which brought me back towards profitability. I then cemented the come back with three winning Homers on Monday.

£100 over five days is not going to feed the family but at least it is not a loss. I did not post today's P&L as I started writing this earlier in the day but now its late here it is.

So let's see the final scores on the doors for November.

Traded Matches 27

Profit = 11 Minimum ROI 27.87%, Maximum ROI 57.81%

Scratch = 3 Average ROI -2.64%

Loss = 13 Minimum ROI -9.30%, Maximum ROI -45.33%

Overall P&L if using single stakes = -£81.53

Average P&L across all 27 matches = -£3.02

Average Liability = £60.67

Average ROI = -3.87%

A loss every 2.08 matches.

Longest winning run = 4

Longest losing run = 3

Another Green Day

2011-11-25T09:55:00.001Z

Another Horse Racing session with the guys at TF combined with my own strategy which resulted in a profit of almost £50. However at one point I was up £80 but got caught in between trades when a horse fell. I have upped my bank quite considerably not only for the horses but for scalping from the PMT tool too so that I can open more than one lay trade at a time. I am looking for an average daily profit of £80 but will not force any trades just because I am short. Over the two days I am at an average of £73.

There were no Homer picks from me for yesterday but there were four qualifying games. Three were guaranteed winners, the other match would have been either a winner or scratch depending on the route that was take after 0-2.

A Clear Mind and my Daily Challenge

2011-11-24T00:09:00.001Z

Now that I am unemployed for the first time in my working career, I have a weird feeling of complete release. As if I have had a weight lifted off my shoulders. I can now fully focus on doing something that I truly love to do and perhaps this totally relaxed state will aid my trading. How I perform over the next month will decide whether I can take that step into trading full time.

I have therefore decided to put myself in the spotlight and record my P&L each day. If I have a truly dreadful day then you will see it in all it's glory. The fact that I am committing myself with my results may hold me back from making any stupid decisions.

This afternoon I tackled the horse racing and used a combination of Robbo's excellent in play advice over at TF, together with my own pre-race and in-play strategies. It didn't start well as I lost £24 in the first race but then I picked things up nicely throughout most of the rest of the card until I lost £25 over two races near the end. The end result was a profit of almost £40.

I then moved into the evening session with a HomerDog of Leverkusen v Chelsea. Yet again HT was a disappointing 0-0. I had scalped the 0-0 so decided to exit with a scratch rather than continue to 55 minutes. For the members who hadn't scalped, they implemented the exit rules and the trade was saved thanks to the last minute third goal. ROI -3.75%

I managed to make a profit from the game after I laid the current score at 1.24 which gave me some satisfaction. This enabled me to accumulate just short of £100 for the day. This is the sort of daily result that is needed consistently if I am ever going to consider making this a full time occupation.

A Weekend To Forget!

2011-11-23T02:06:00.001Z

Trading is all about taking the rough with the smooth but making sure that the smooth is more dominant to obtain long term success. Having had a relatively smooth ride these last seven or so months my Homer family picks hit rough waters at the end of October and are still traversing through them. That is not to say that the strategies are heading towards Niagara Falls, indeed they are still producing result after result. Over the weekend MarketMatcher highlighted eight Homers. I picked three which all lost. The other five won. However despite this temporary difficulty my picks still have a no loss strike rate above 70%.

For the members who have followed me through TF they recognise that this is a temporary blip but for those who are brand new to the strategy it is more difficult to accept and I can appreciate that. How many times do I keep saying that you can do the all the homework you want for any football strategy but you have no control once the game kicks off. Let's bring the results up to date since the successful Colombia HomerDog.

Friday 18/11 Kaiserslautern v Leverkusen. HomerDog. This was 0-0 at HT. The away team scored on 54 minutes which is the worst time for the away goal. This game finished 0-2 despite 24 shots on target in what was a very entertaining game. ROI -41.02%.

Saturday 19/11 Sunderland v Fulham. Homer. This had a lively first half and the home team were unlucky to have scored but while goals were being scored all around the Premier League, this game petered out in the second half to finish 0-0. ROI -36.70%.

Saturday 19/11 Fiorentina v AC Milan. HomerDog. The perfect pick with the home team's great goalscoring record at home and Milans recent scintillating form. Milan had a perfectly good goal ruled out for offside which would have set us on the way but it was not to be. I staked heavy but paid the price. FT 0-0. No home goals in the three traded games.ROI -39.92%

Sunday 20/11 Elche v Deportivo. Homer. I wasn't planning on trading this as liquidity was low but I received a few emails from members asking for me to stake it. That drove my interest and a handful of us were at the console for the 11am kick off. A goal in the 20th minute secured the profit. It ended as an overs result. ROI 27.87%.

Sunday 20/11 Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano. Homer. This was as poor as a game can get with two sides who would struggle to beat a lower division Sunday pub team. Osasuna had been scoring at home but seemed to be still affected by the week before's 7-1 away defeat to Real Madrid.Yet another 0-0. ROI -38.42%.

Sunday 20/11 Hamburg v Hoffenheim. HomerActive. This is the first time I traded this strategy with a group. We got on in the 20th minute. The goal came 5 minutes later. FT 2-0. ROI 28.14%

Tuesday 22/11 CSKA Moscow v Lille. Homer. The home team needed the home win to secure qualification and had been scoring for fun at home. However, just like the previous picks the form was out of the window as Lille dominated. The 0-2 score meant another loss. ROI -45.33%.

What was ironic was some members against my advice traded the Homer Granada v Mallorca and secured the profit only for the game to be abandoned after 61 minutes due to the linesmen being hit in the face by a brolly! Perhaps the weekend was never meant to be.

Weekend - 7 Trades. 2 wins, 5 losses and just 3 home goals. At single stakes that is a loss of £95.

Overall - 201 Trades. 125 wins, 17 scratches, 59 losses.

The in-play console which I only introduced by overwhelming demand by the members has worked well. It is only used during Homer fixtures exclusively for those strategies.

Now that I am officially unemployed, I am going to start trading the horses in the afternoon and will report on my progress.

Stay positive. Onwards and upwards.

A Geeks Toy supports Children in Need

2011-11-20T18:45:00.001Z

It's Children in Need weekend and that means that the team at A Geeks Toy have organised various fundraising activities to support this important project. Please pop over to their forum to see what activities are in play.

Talking about 'in-play', AGT will be upgraded on Monday to include this new feature.

The application is already rich in important features. The current version 1.2 beta has new functions such as Stop Loss, Dutching, Bookmaking and the Multibet tool.

In addition, the application will soon be available for the Betdaq markets.

But there is one feature that dwarfs all others......the application is totally FREE!!!!

A Geeks Toy Pro.....Probably the best Betfair Trading Software in the world!

Can't Wait Until the Weekend

2011-11-17T07:00:00.001Z

This morning I have released my newsletter which contains picks and a watch list for the fixtures on Friday evening through to Saturday evening. There are three firm picks subject to movements in price and nine others on the rolling watch list.

For those who are members of Betting System Notes, Saturdays Homer selections will not appear on MarketMatcher until 48 hours before the match is due to kick off. Purchasing the Homer Family strategies and subscribing to my daily service will ensure that potential Saturday Homer Family fixtures will be highlighted at least 54 hours before kick off as I will examine each and every game. I rarely pick French or Scottish games but ALL games with potential Homer pricing will be highlighted together with my personal opinion on the fixture.

If anyone who has subscribed to the daily service has not received the newsletter then please contact me via email so I can investigate.

Colombia v Argentina. The Perfect HomerDog

2011-11-16T04:40:00.001Z

It has been an extremely hectic week since the strategies have been released but now the peak is over I can now focus on the blog. I can now give a brief review of the opening three official picks and update the results on the right and on my spreadsheet under the 'Homer Results' tab.

However, firstly big thanks have to go to Bingo and Robbo who both gave a scintillating performance with their advice on the afternoons horse racing over at TF yesterday. They advised the entries and exits points on most of the in-play racing and came up trumps every time. It was clear that this wasn't guesswork. Both had done meticulous research as they justified their picks. It was a great alternative to the football in a week where the fixtures for trading have been poor.

The first official pick since the release of the strategies was Friday's HomerDog of England v Spain. I rarely get involved with friendlies but thought that England and the corresponding CS prices were grossly overpriced and it was worth a look. It was clear midway through the first half England's intention was to defend at all costs as if it was some kind of experiment to prove to their critics that they can defend against the best in the world. However this was at the cost of having no attacking strategy. It was as if Capello told the team that scoring wasn't important. The unders dropped quicker than a lead balloon and we were faced with an unbelievable scenario of the MLE at 37 minutes. The MLE has always been reached at half time at the absolute earliest so this was a unique situation. With so much going on I did not have any time to scalp and so exited at 37 minutes and a loss to start the service. ROI -38.11%. Those that had a full 0-0 scalp would last to 50 minutes and would have been rewarded by the 47th minute goal. I cannot emphasise enough how important it is to learn and successfully execute the scalp. In the end the basis of my pick was right as England came out winners.

On Sunday saw the Homer trade of Deportivo v Celta Vigo. This game provided a small profit as the 4th minute 1-0 ensured that the insurance kicked in. It was however a disappointment that the strategy wasn't give the opportunity to be used in full. ROI 31.33%

Yesterday I picked the HomerDog of Colombia v Argentina. Argentina have been struggling away and I felt it was a good opportunity for the underdog to at least get on the score sheet if not win the game. I prepared properly for this trade and was fully scalped on the 0-1 and half scalped on the 0-0. This left me in a very strong position but could still lose if the game remained 0-0 up to 60 minutes.

The home goal came very late in the first half which just shows what a fine line there is between winning and losing. As it was so late the market it settled at greatly reduced prices in addition we had a fantastic unders price of 1.47 enabling everyone who was chatting on Facebook to green up for a £30 profit to single stakes. ROI 57.81% The game ended 1-2 so anyone who left the trade open won £18.50.

Over the three games we have had three very different scenario's that has produced two greens and one red. At single stakes the fees for the Family of Homer Strategies document is well on it's way to being covered.

There have been no opportunities to introduce the HomerActive but I am sure we can find one or two games over the busy weekend. It is not the easiest to trade but I am sure it will be an interesting experience for members.

I will also be doing various videos of my trading and how I use A Geeks Toy to scalp, monitor and exit trades.

Brown Pants Factor

2011-11-14T17:08:00.001Z

There is no such thing as free money and don't the layers that have spent £43,000 to win £43 just know it!

Amelia Lily who was one of the X-Factor favourites, gave an average performance in the very first week and paid the price. Naturally her price reached the Betfair ceiling and nobody could have predicted that not only has she returned to the show but she is the favourite at 4.3. Had anyone backed her for £10 at 1000 can now green up for £1,200.

No Spin With Me!

2011-11-11T21:41:00.001Z

First and foremost, with me there is no spin. None whatsoever!

I am not taking any credit for the fact that I know some of you, including myself, came away with a profit of £60 or more for the HomerDog pick of Estonia v Rep. Ireland.

Having launched the service yesterday I was keen that despite no official picks today, the members should trade a game for quarter stakes just to get used to the concept of these unique strategies. I advised not to use single stakes which would risk £20. The average potential profit was £28 but the strategy also has a scenario which could result in a profit of at least £60. I selected this fixture because the under 2.5 was at a ridiculous 1.46 so the liabilities would be kept to a minimum. There was no way I ever thought that the match would turn out like it did.

To be honest, I was concerned to learn during online chats that some members used single stakes. Incredibly the MLE was reached just as the score went 0-2 so some members had exited and others were preparing to exit. Closing the trade was the correct decision and those that did ended with a scratch trade. For the one's that were fated to be still in the trade found themselves heading towards the scenario which was timed perfectly to give members profit of anything between £55 and £75.

There were a couple of members that used their trading software providers training mode and there were also a couple that got themselves in a pickle and lost a very small amount but the idea of micro trading was for the very purpose of understanding the strategy and the maths behind the MLE and making the mistakes when the stakes are tiny.

Had I not been helping out on facebook chat I would have traded out about 30 seconds before the second goal. There will be no record against my stats.

The HomerDog really is the jewel in the family. Not a home goal in site and the biggest win a single stakes Homer family member has ever produced.

So well done to the winners. Unlucky to the scratchers but a big learning experience for all!

Homer Strategies Now Available & Competition

2011-11-10T15:54:00.001Z

Just a short post to advise that the Homer Strategies are now available as well as the monthly subscription which is free in the first month.

To celebrate the launch and my first HomerDog pick I have a super competition which is open to all subscribers of the daily service.

Email me with the time of the first goal in the England v Spain game up to 15 minutes before kick off and the nearest time will win lifetime access to Betting System Notes which has the fantastic MarketMatcher tool. If you think the score will be 0-0 then state 'no goal'. In the event of a tie a random draw will be made.

If the winner is already a BSN subscriber, they will receive a refund of the subscription fee of £39.99.

Tomorrow

2011-11-09T09:24:00.005Z

The last few days have been manic and I haven't had any time to bring the blog up to date.

On Sunday evening I traded the Homer Rayo Vallecano v Sociedad. Like in the Everton game the home goal was scored not long after 9 minutes but enough time to execute the lay which ensured a winning trade. ROI 31.36%.

It is so important to get that lay in by the 10th minute at the latest and not to hang on to gain those extra few ticks. There is no excuse if the max price has been reached but if the price is a few ticks short then make the decision to either close the entire trade for scratch or take the high price and accept that a winning position will result in a small profit if either of the three CS scores are the final result. An overs result will not be affected by the high lay price.

The FT score was 4-0 which meant that I was paid on the overs result so had I entered my lay at a very high price it would not have had any bearing on my profit.

I will continue with the blog but my focus and priority will be with the Homerites that join the daily service which starts tomorrow. I don't want to sound cliche as it is not meant to sound like the boring hard sell slogans that we see time and time again but if everyone commits to joining that has already registered then there is no way that I will add to the numbers. I am already in 'knocked for six' by the response.

I will add the paypal links to the "Purchase and Subscription Service' tabs and links will be automatically emailed to download the PDF Strategy document and the Excel Spreadsheet. I will look out for any email queries throughout Thursday and aim to respond as quick as possible. I will also activate chat on facebook for more instant help. I advise anyone who joins the daily service to hook up with me on facebook just to have the instant chat facility if you need to get hold of me quickly.

It will be a slow start as there are only a limited amount of secondary league competitive matches coming up over the next 7 days. I never trade friendlies or first leg matches so that will rule out all the weekend International games but hopefully the second leg playoffs midweek will have some opportunities. This period is not necessarily a bad thing as it will mean that Homerites can spend time understanding the strategies and get back to me with any queries.

I am sure we can find the odd low stake fun trade to practice on.

Out of the Blocks in November

2011-11-06T10:04:00.000Z

The weekend arrived on the back of four straight losses, I have not experienced this sequence since I started recording the results in May and have to admit I was feeling a little under pressure going into the pick Newcastle v Everton which I suppose is only natural.

Now there is something to really worry about!

The pick was a 'no brainer' as the prices were generous, Newcastle being the form team while Everton had been struggling in their away games. I went into this game having scalped 0-0, 1-0 and 2-0 thanks to the marvellous PMT tool so was in a strong position from the start and was due to receive a bumper profit had it ended as unders with the usual three CS scores. This time the result mirrored the form and it was pleasing recording my first green in November although the 2-1 overs result produced a standard. ROI 30.00%. At just single stakes the profit was exactly £18 which is almost double the monthly subscription to my support service. If you are interested or just want to know more please complete the form in the left column.

Trading is all about the bigger picture and the no loss strike rate remains consistent at over 70% and as long as teams play to their current form and do their jobs properly the Homer family will always be profitable.

Daily service to start Wednesday 9/11

Detailed Strategy Breakdown £19.99 onepayment

Homer incorporating HomerLow

HomerDog

HomerActive

Daily Homer Picks and Support £9.99 permonth

Threeday rolling game watch. I highlight every game with the Homer family potential.Which one’s I am likely to follow and which games I will reject. Be prepared asthe match draws near. Saturdays matches will be highlighted the Wednesdaybefore.

Receivemy trading Homer picks with justification. These will be knownwell in advance as a natural progression of the rolling game watch.

Receivemy picks stakes. These will be mailedat least six hours before kick off and will be based on single stakes.

FreeHomer Results Spreadsheet. Record your progress and see your results, strike rateand analysis by country.

PostTrade Analysis. Isummarise the matches I trade.What went right and what were the difficulties..

HomerResults. I listthe results of all games where the prices qualified for each Homer strategywhether picked or not.

Workin Progress. Read my thoughts as I develop two Homervariations. HomerActiveDog & HomerExtremeDog. These strats will be availablefor free for members

Facebook. This will be where I will be available forlive one to one support. I will be available during all the games I pick andwill advise in my daily emails what other times I will turn chat on. My facebook ‘friends’ will beamended for only paying members.

Notes. There will not be achat room as I continue to support the Trading Football service and haveabsolutely no intention to compete against their first class service. I willtrade the occasional Homer in their roombut I will not be releasing stakes until shortly before kick off. Members of myservice will receive stakes and advice at least six hours before kick off. Iwill not be trading the Dog or Active strategies in their room.

StrategiesOnly. The cost for the strategies without the dailysupport but with the free spreadsheet is£29.99.

Support. Email me with anyHomer related queries to handyandyblog@yahoo.co.uk

PAYMENT CAN BE MADE FROM TUESDAY LATESTON MY BLOG AT http://mysportstradingjourney.blogspot.com/

I WILL SEND OUT A MAIL WHEN IT’S READY.

Homer Kicks off Wednesday

2011-11-05T05:05:00.000Z

If you are interesting in joining this exciting venture, please register in the left column.

You can now access my facebook page without having to give a TF alias.

The 0-2. What to do!

2011-11-02T07:29:00.001Z

It was almost a certainty that having decided to launch a service, my results have shown three consecutive losses with the main Homer strategy dipping below 70% for the very first time. It is currently 69.80%. The last time I had a hatrick of reds was towards the end of June. Losses are inevitable and I am not going to sweep them under the carpet and only spin the good times like other sites. In the last nine games traded I have won just three but I have had losing runs twice before and I am not going to be negative about it. The losing runs are never as long or as frequent as the winning ones' and most importantly the overall position is strong with an overall no loss strike rate of 72.34% which is one loss in every 3.62 games. The other positive is that October ended as a profit at single stakes at £104.72.

One of the features of the daily service will be a post trade mini report of all the games I traded. The thoughts and choices I faced during the 90 minutes. However there is nothing that can be done in a game with no goals other than starting the game with a massive green 0-0 scalp and drip laying during the last third of the game but even then you are vulnerable to the away goal. The first half of Crystal Palace v Portsmouth was so dire that the prices far exceeded their usual position and I exited leaving zero on overs with a £26 loss that was £3 over what is acceptable. In theory I should have traded out on 42 minutes but with HT so close I decided to carry on. The second half had improved and in the end there were eight shots on target but the three goal escape never looked like coming close. ROI -41.79%. To compound the bad day I lost internet connection just as the second half started and it didn't return for three hours.

I had pondered the HomerDog of Doncaster v Middlesbro but rejected it due to the home teams five goals in eight home games. Typically they opened the scoring on 14 minutes which would have ensured a profit.

On Monday I traded Stoke v Newcastle. Unders drifted out before kick off so I decided not to trade it but changed my mind when it reversed. At KO the unders price was 1.85 but the CS prices didn't lend that much support for a decent profit. 1.65 was the point where I was going to enter the market and I estimated it would take 15 minutes to get there leaving me vulnerable for 5 minutes. However as the game went through it's early phase, unders reduced significantly and at nine minutes was 1.67. In hindsight I should have taken a position as I was only 2 ticks away from my preferred entry point but decided to hang on and leave myself exposed when the game entered the 11th minute. Frustratingly the price hovered between 1.66/1.67 and I was punished by my poor decision making when Newcastle scored in the 12th minute with the price at 1.66. There was no value in risking the trade when short of a price by just 0.01 and I was left kicking myself. At that point I had no option but to trade out with an ROI of -46.39% but my liability was low as I had not executed the lay.

The strategy gives firm exit points for the 0-0 and 0-1 but the 0-2 is a scenario where there is no right or wrong way. It comes down to personal choice. This was the quandary for traders as Newcastle made it 0-2 on 38 minutes. So let's assume that traders fired in their lay with single stakes at 1.67. As the second goal was scored the CS was lost but the unders was strong enough at 4.7 to make an immediate exit with a tiny profit. At half time it had reduced to 4.2. It was a very open first half so naturally the carrot of just one more goal for a full profit was a very tempting one but a decision needed to be made before proceeding any further.

a) Do you exit at half time with a guaranteed scratch?

b) Do you stay in the market at the point where you hedge the unders so that unders leaves a max loss of £23 while one goal and overs will be scratch? This would have been when the price reached 3.25 and would be somewhere between 52 and 55 minutes. The goal arrived in the 76th minute so this would have resulted in a scratch.

c) Do you stay in the market until the max loss of £23 is guaranteed with or without a further goal? That would have been when the price hit 1.96. In this game price was reached at 70 minutes and the goal came in the 76th minute so would have been a loss.

My philosophy is to stay in at all times until the max loss is reached. So for me I was always destined to lose.

I use Soccer Mystic to help me analyze games and work out scenarios with prices at certain points in the game. It is a good tool to use when in the middle of a trade as it will help you define when exit points are to be reached and what happens to the prices if a home or away goal is scored. I have added a section about the product. It is a free tool from within the Bet Angel software.

The full October analysis is as follows:

Traded Matches 28

Profit = 15 Minimum ROI 29.68%, Maximum ROI 57.38%

Scratch = 3 Average ROI -2.13%

Loss = 10 Minimum ROI -32.46%, Maximum ROI -47.03%

Overall P&L if using single stakes = £104.72

Average P&L across all 28 matches = £3.74

Average Liability = £52.63

Average ROI = 7.94%

A loss every 2.80 matches.

Longest winning run = 4

Longest losing run = 2 (yesterdays game is November)

Below is my results split by country. Where the strike rate is above 50% it is shown in green otherwise it's red. I have left all the popular countries/leagues in the grid so you can see which one's I am yet to trade.

Of the stats where the games traded are above 10 matches, It is interesting to see that above the average of 72% is Ireland 90%, Sweden 86%, CL&Europa 83%, Germany 80%, Brazil 79%, Japan 75% whilst below the average is England 64%, Internationals 65% Argentina 62%. All of these are profitable.

There are just three countries under 50%. Spain Scotland and Iceland with only 14 games traded between them.

One Game Weekend

2011-10-31T16:17:00.001Z

A combination of family arrangements, Homer admin duties and a poor match selection meant I only traded one game on the weekend which was the HomerDog Wigan v Fulham. It was an unfortunate loser and the first Dog loser in ten Dog trades.

Whilst the result was frustratingly expensive and disappointing the most important fact was that I knew that the pick was right and offered great value. Opinion is what trading is all about. It is not about selecting a game just because the prices fit. As long as you are selecting a game for the right reasons and can justify it to yourself then that is all that counts.

As you can see below the game was dominated by Wigan with 68% ball possesion. 16 goal attempts with 9 on target compared to Fulhams 6 attempts with just 4 on target. It really was a smash and grab performance by the Londoners! I managed to stay in until about 65 minutes as the market was strongly suggesting an equaliser rather than 0-2. In the end Fulham added another but the third scratch goal never came. ROI 32.46%.

I liked the look of Sunday's Osasuna game but had so much on that I simply didn't have time. That would have been a winner. The least said about QPR the better!

The response to the offer of the strategies and service has been nothing short of overwhelming. I asked for registrations first so that I could be sure to have enough numbers to make it worthwhile and there is no problem on that score! Thank you all very much for your interest. Now the hard work begins as I spend the next couple of weeks organising myself so that I can deliver a quality service. I will send out details of what the service will bring and will only look to collect the fees when I am fully ready to go. I am passionate and determined about this project and I am sure we can all work together to make it a resounding success.

Homer Results Spreadsheet Video

2011-10-30T11:05:00.000Z

Below is the Homer Results video walthrough. This comprehensive analysis lists and splits results data by family strategy and league. It is supplied free when purchasing the strategies or joining the daily service. The video is best viewed at full screen.

Single Stakes HomerActive

2011-10-29T00:01:00.000+01:00

I entered the markets for Bray v Dundalk on 31 minutes. The goal came in the 50th minute. The liability was £50. the profit £28.69 for an ROI 57.38%.

Homer News

2011-10-28T15:51:00.001+01:00

Bringing my exploits up to date, on Tuesday whilst most sane people were trading the Arsenal cup game I traded a very different Arsenal team. Arsenal FC V San Lorenzo in an Argentinian league match. I was drawn to it as the prices were very good. It kicked off a little earlier than the UK games so I was wary of the chance of poor liquidity which meant it was only using single stakes which for me I class as a fun trade. As it happened the markets were reasonably okay but whilst there was excitement and positivity in the TF chat room as the UK games were reaping profits, my little trade went down the pan! The home goal came in the 75th minute which was far too late. There is not much you can do when a game plods on well into the second half with no goals. The more you scalp of the 0-0 pre-game the longer you can progress but going too deep into the second half will see unders close to 1.01 with that full liability realised you will also be putting at risk the scenario of an away goal which would put you in serious trouble as 0-1 is not covered and the later the away goal the lesser the impact on the unders price. That home goal on 75 minutes was far too late and the only benefactors would have been the non-disciplined gamblers who whilst breathing a big sigh of relief this time will only find their bank empty over the medium term. ROI -39.00%.

On Wednesday I traded the HomerDog Stoke v Liverpool. I felt that with Stoke's home record plus teams that will not be the same come the weekend that it was worth a go. I was heading to my first strat loss since I had secured the trading parameters to start recording the results and was saved thanks to a first half added time goal. Liverpool then brought the big guns on in the second half, took control and won the game ROI 36.79%.

Yesterday I lead the Homer of Espanyol v Real Betis in the chat room and unfortunately the game played out the same way as on Tuesday. 1-0 towards the end of the game and ROI -37.49%. So two consecutive Homer defeats with a happy Dog in between.

I quickly got my money back as I jumped on a greyhound tip made in the chat room and pencilled in a possible HomerActive Ath Bilbao v Ath Madrid. Liquidity wasn't great but it was just about okay to safely trade. The idea is to enter the market on 20 to 25 minutes whilst the score is still 0-0. The 1-0 was about 7.4 on 20 minutes which is about right and then it suddenly jumped up to 8.4 with a fair value available. I immediately took that price and a few seconds after I was matched it dropped down to 6.8. Well that set me up for a well above average profit if the home goal arrived and it finished unders. Bilbao scored around the 70th minute which was about 5 minutes before I was due to exit. I then had the opportunity to lay some of that lovely 1-0 to boost the unders profit but to be honest the game was poor up to that point and I didn't think there were two more goals left in the game. How wrong I was as it ended 3-0 and the standard overs profit. ROI 35.40%.

So a mixed few days which leaves the months profit if at single stakes £109.98. I only trade at single stakes when liquidity is low.

You may have noticed that I have added a banner to the left where you can register your interest in purchasing the Homer. I am not putting up any flashy 'squeeze' page or telling you how wonderful my system is. I see them all the time and I just find them patronising. Hurry as there are only 3 left and the price is going up tomorrow sort of thing. I have said before that the Nugget Crew over at TF introduced me into how to make a decent attempt and trading football. They helped me to think for myself which is how I got into devising my own original idea. It wasn't an overnight production, it evolved over time until I was happy to introduce it to the TF members as a genuine thank you. The single Homer strategy is also available at BSN due to the close association with TF.

However, the important price criteria did not produce enough picks to trade many games on a daily basis so I was developing other Homer based strats to compliment and it wasn't easy to find the right balance. I have spent so much time with testing, generating the facebook group, being in the chat room for most days, chatting on facebook, generally being available to answer any queries and keeping up with this blog that I feel that it's time to reward myself for the time I have been helping and sharing with others. The Homer interest has grown into something that I could never have imagined and I have to take a step back and think of what is right for me.

What I plan to do is to introduce a service to have two options. The first is to make available the Homer, HomerDog and HomerActive as a comprehensive PDF document with free lifetime access to any other Homer family strategy that I make available for example the HomerActiveDog which I am working on and will be available to offer support. I will also be supplying the Homer results spreadsheet which will have all the formulas set up and very easy to maintain for those who are not familiar with Excel. It will be an unprotected spreadsheet unlike my ResultMaster product which is fully protected from copying etc. I plan to make this available for a one off £29.99.

The other option is to enhance what I have been doing on facebook for the TF members and that is to send daily emails which will give details of the upcoming games which one's I am monitoring and why. What games I am going to avoid and why. The all important staking. I will provide a four day rolling position on the upcoming games. Naturally a four day lead time will be used as a guide only so that subscribers can plan well ahead and know what I am thinking. I will also discuss the development of any other strats that I am looking at and make videos available to support the strats.

This is a big commitment from me and one that I assure I will not be taking for granted. If I am going to have paying subscribers I am going to ensure that the information is delivered accurately and timely and that you are getting value for money. There will be no more last minute instructions for games that I trade for the Homer and HomerDog. This will be true for most of the HomerActives but there are occasions when a game does not start as anything near Active potential and then develops into one as the game progresses. I will fire emails out to all subscribers when that happens so there will be times where there will be a last minute panic. I will also be supplying the Homer results spreadsheet. If anyone is interested in this offer I plan to make the PDF strats available for £19.99 with a modest monthly subscription of £9.99.

I will discuss the possibility of adding the HomerDog and HomerActive to MarketMatcher (BSN) but only the Homer strat will be available there as it is now. I strongly recommend that you subscribe to BSN for a one off payment of £39.99. The banner is on the right. I will continue to support the excellent TF and play an active part of their community as usual.

We all see across the Betfair forum the mention that if a system is any good it won't be shared as you lose your edge. Not necessarily. The three strats will not be affected when trading the premium leagues as there is enough cash to go round. HomerActive is only advised to be used for the premium european leagues. For the secondary leagues Homer and HomerDog will be fine.

This strategies are not a guarantee of future profit but my results has shown that the strike rate has been consistent.

At this stage please register your interest on the left so that I can gauge the numbers. Obviously if there is not much interest then I won't proceed with the monthly subscription. Having said that I put the banner up an hour ago without this post and I am already getting response. If I do proceed I will make a formal list of the subscription benefits before making it available for purchase. I expect to launch after I have tied up a couple of things in the next couple of weeks.

The Biggest Win on Sunday

2011-10-24T21:45:00.000+01:00

The fourth consecutive profit came on Saturday afternoon thanks to Aston Villa v West Brom. ROI 30.24%. This was followed by a scratch in Fulham v Everton as the early away goal meant a quick end to the trade. ROI -5.64%. October is now coming together as the last 14 games have produced just 3 losses. The profit at just single stakes is exactly £136.

The complete Homer family strategies and detailed picks will be available here. Details will follow in the next few days.

However, the Sunday belonged to Queens Park Rangers and the magnificent display against their bitter rivals. The atmosphere was tremendous and the victory was very sweet!

Risk & Reward

2011-10-22T08:19:00.000+01:00

Three wins in a row and October is looking much healthier.

Thursday saw Tottenham v Rubin Kazan. I don't trade Europa group games as these are often dour affairs with teams full of second string squad players but I had a play around on the PMT tool which is something I should be using more considering I am paying monthly for it. I managed to gain free green on the under 2.5, 1-0 & 1-1 so it didn't cost me that much more to add to the CS backs. That wonderful free kick ensured an ROI of 41.34%.

On Friday I continued my testing of the HomerDog on St.Patricks v Derry. The home team sat one place behind Derry but the prices suggested that the away team was by far the strongest. I opposed this view and was rewarded by the home goal on thirty minutes. Things got even better when Derry equalised which was the highest green. I laid some of the 1-1 off towards the end so the overs could be bumped up in case of another goal. That was an ROI of 48.06%. The HomerDog is now at 7 wins and 1 scratch since I have been confident enough to start recording the results. I have of course tested it far more over the past few months. I will make the strategy and parameters available very soon along with the HomerActive.

Late last night I noticed a nicely priced Homer opportunity for a 6am game of Yokohama v Urawa. It was 4th against 16th in a league with eighteen teams. Liquidity was very low and I took that as the reason for such pricing. However I put my alarm on for 5.30am to review the prices and was pleasantly surprised to see the prices retained at much higher liquidity. It was one of those really strong opportunities that doesn't appear that often and I committed to the trade. The home goal arrived on four minutes and I was able to end the trade from the insurance at an ROI of 36.84%. In monetary terms at single stakes the liability was £30 and the profit was £11. As it happened the game finished 1-2 so perhaps there was a reasonable explanation to the generous home pricing.

The average single stakes across the entire Homer family is £54.52. If I only include games where the lay was matched the average is £57.84. When I state the return on investment it is based on the initial liability as that is what is committed from the bank but of course in real terms the strategy is risking just £23 with a profit of anywhere between £18 (78%) and £30 (130%).

This is why when the prices are in the zone this strategy is a no brainer. It is also a very safe trade for those that want to know where they stand before they make the commitment to risk their bank. In very simple terms at single stakes you either win £23ish or lose £23ish. At four times stakes it's almost £100 either way. So as long as the discipline to exit is set in stone the strategy only needs a no loss strike rat of 50.01% to be profitable. The strike rate is currently 73.60%.

As far as discipline is concerned why continue past the max loss exit point and put more and more of your liability at risk against the same amount of profit you would have had the chance of winning from the start. At 90 minutes with the score 0-0 you risk losing up to nearly three times more and would win less than average as a 1-0 goal at the very end will not leave any value in topping up it up as the 1-0 has the lowest green.

Frustration

2011-10-20T13:33:00.000+01:00

On Tuesday I picked Millwall v Brighton for the standard Homer and was disappointed that such a lively game was deadlocked at 0-0 by the time I had exited. On watching the highlights I was astonished to see a miss by Millwall from three yards out and with the goal gaping. You just can't trust players to do their jobs these days. I almost escaped with a scratch but the third goal never came. That player should be paying me compensation for my loss! ROI -36.92%.

Even more frustrating was the HomerActive potential in the game Southampton v West Ham. It was 0-0 after 20 minutes and the prices were excellent, especially the 1-0. I started working out my backs when the match suspended. I thought to myself that it was very unlucky to have just missed out on a good opportunity due to a goal but the game was not suspended because of the goal. It remained suspended for fifteen minutes by which time the key prices has passed and the CS liquidity was poor from then until the end of the game. Southampton scored just before half time which would have given me an above average profit so you can imagine I was not best pleased.

On Wednesday I traded a HomerDog for the game Olympiakos v Dortmond. I don't usually trade CL group games but Olympiakos were bottom and had to really go for it and I was hoping they could nick that home goal during the first half. My assumption was right but they scored too early for the trade to be fully launched and I was paid up from the insurance. ROI was 48.76% but that was high because the lay had not been fired. At single stakes the liability was just £30 and the win was just under £15.

I had also thought that Leverkusen v Valencia was a good shout too and that would have been a full HomerDog profit but I was only ever going to trade one match at a time under test.

The final Homer trade of the evening was an Active on Marseille v Arsenal. The first half was very lively so I jumped into the trade on 25 minutes and was unlucky not see goals before half time. However the second half was another story as the game disintegrate into a boring scrappy affair and the loss was then easy to determine. ROI -47.03%. Thankfully I managed to pull back the loss with a lay of the current score as the game entered added time. I always do this when I am facing a loss as it is very cheap and last minute goals are more frequent than you would think.

I have now recorded 16 Homers this month of which 8 have been winners, 2 have been scratched and 6 losers. Not as good as September but it can't always be rosy as we cannot stick the ball in the net so have to rely on overpaid professionals doing their jobs properly. For me the most important aspect is that I have been happy with my picks and that the family of strategies continue to show a positive trend over the longer term. The month is still in profit although £32.93 is nothing to shout about.

Now that we are approaching the end of the year I am going to add year 2013 to the ResultMaster spreadsheet and send the new version as a free update to all purchasers with clear instructions, perhaps even a video, on how to migrate the existing data over to the new spreadsheet.

Weekend Roundup

2011-10-17T08:36:00.000+01:00

Dogs and Actives were put to one side as three standard Homers were traded producing one of each of the possible results. Saturdays EPL trade of Stoke v Fulham finished 2-0 but the opening goal came too late. The escape of the third goal never materialized and a loss of -36.92% was the result.

Sunday's Rome derby of Lazio v Roma was the next trade. This was an evening match which followed the afternoons main Serie A fixtures that produced seven from eight 0-0's. The eighth game was 0-2 therefore not one home goal was scored before the big game in Rome. Roma took the lead on five minutes so the trade was immediately over with a scratch which produced an ROI of 6.55%.

The final trade was the early morning match Lanus v Velez which had a tempting unders price of 1.65. Argentinian games have always been the most successful for me and thankfully this continued. Lanus took the lead on 35 minutes then Velez equalised just before half time. It remained 1-1 which had the largest green and on 80 minutes I Iayed some off to bump up the overs which turned out to be the right move when Velez scored a late winner. This was an above average ROI of 41.89%.

October 2011 Results

My weekend Homer P&L was quite a bit down as my Stoke stakes were much higher than the others but overall the weekend was profitable with an opening lay of Jenson Button in the Korean Grand Prix. I didn't have to do much after the start to secure the profit. I had a successful CS Jobby (TF members will understand) on Newcastle v Tottenham. I also put in a speculative lay of Webb Simpson half way through his round at the PGA golf. He was one stroke off the lead at the time but his price was lower than the leader so I took that as value. My thoughts were that Thompson would go on to win but in the end he dropped out and it was Crane who came from absolutely nowhere to win in a playoff with Simpson. Crane stood at the 8th tee eight shots behind the leader with a Betfair price in excess of 200 and birdied eight of the next ten holes.

I have refereed Sunday league football on and off for the past twenty years so I was disturbed to hear about a serious incident at Saturdays non league game Chesham United v Redditch United in the Evo-Stik Southern Premier league. These incidents are extremely rare but does not help the general situation of the lack of referees at local level.

Brief Entry

2011-10-14T18:43:00.000+01:00

I recorded the third profit in a row on Thursday. It was a HomerActive just for single stakes on Malmo v Hacken. Four of us traded it whilst in the TF chat room. We started the trades on 24 minutes and the important home goal arrived in the 60th minute. The ROI was 37.41%.

Walking the Dog

2011-10-12T08:22:00.000+01:00

I have now updated the spreadsheet so that the results are split between each strategy. This is particularly important with the Homer proven and others in test. I have added the HomerActiveDog although I don't plan to do anything with it for a little while.

My current focus is on the HDog and Mondays trade of Oldham v MK Dons went perfectly. I have been waiting for the scenario of a late goal to assess the following price movements. It is definitely worth trading out at 1-0 which is not the case for a Homer. The ROI was a generous 51.59%. In monetary terms I had £60 of liability with an exit loss of £23 and profited with just under £32.

The 0-1 in a HDog trade will cause more problems than a Homer. The market is expecting that the away team will win so the 1-1 will not be as low. Naturally a second goal will push the overs to the fore in the same way as a Homer but if the score remains 0-1 there needs to be something to soften the blow. I think I may have found it. It is pleasing that I have had no losses since I decided that it was stable enough to record the results, however I am not getting carried away after just six results especially as there have been many losses during it's early testing. It is just as important to see how losing trades play out so the exit points can be reinforced.

I was thinking yesterday about trading the HDog with the game Denmark v Holland but decided to have a day without trading. That was a shame as the game played out nicely and would have been a good profit.

As far as the Homer is concerned I am not comfortable with the revised staking I introduced a few weeks ago as it leaves the 1-0 short particularly if the goal comes just before the max loss exit because the post goal 1-0 price will need more topping up than the usual. It has also given situations where the max loss has been acheived a couple of minutes before HT. One of the answers is to increase the minimum price parameters but that would make match selection which is already sparse, even less which is not desirable. Trading is about offsetting the good with the bad. If the answer was simple we would all be millionaires but the reality on trading exchanges is that where there are winners there are losers. I suggest for the time being reducing the lay from £52 to £50 and perhaps shave a bit off the FG.

The Weekends Thoughts

2011-10-10T06:00:00.000+01:00

Now that I am satisfied with the Homers long term performance. I want to spend more of my time developing the Dog and reinforcing the Active strategy. I am wary that the Dog is very much work in progress but recently I have been prepared to announce my picks, add them to my overall results and offer them out to a handful of hard core Homerites on the understanding that the strategy is not the finished product nor is it proven. I have been looking at this concept since July and whilst the early phases had mixed results with more losses than wins there has been a gradual improvement as time has gone by.

MarketMatcher has been an essential element in my experimental process. With so much research needed this tool has saved me hours of valuable time and given me the incentive to continue to develop new ideas. Don't under estimate the power of this very simple tool, especially the custom search. If the developers can just add a facility to save custom searches it would be the icing on the cake. Click on the Betting System Notes banner in the right column for more information.

I am at the stage now where I am happy with the price parameters of the Dog but still trying out slightly different staking methods to extract the best value possible. Naturally it will be more profitable than the Homer across the three CS's although the overs result will be the same .Over the long term we know that the market get's it right therefore it is reasonable to expect that a HomerDog will not have the same win ratio as the Homer. This means it is essential that the picks are sensible and that the CS winning trade extracts more profit than the Homer whilst leaving the max loss exit the same as the Homer. I am trying to make the profit gap between greening up and letting it run the whole game as close as possible as it is in everyone's interest to secure an acceptable profit as soon as possible to free up the bank.

Whilst the Homer and Dog are rigid, the Active is far from it. There are many in play strats out there with one or two trades but I do not know any where a complete strat containing at least four different trades are fired into the market well into play. It is such an instinctive strategy that you may not have ever thought of trading the game until you see a scenario at a particular moment. For me this moment was last night with the game Almeria v Real Valladolid. MM confirmed the game had the Homer pricing but I was concerned that all the prices were on the very edge of qualifying and that an end to end game would result in the overs not reducing significantly enough that could leave a difficult risky situation. Some TF members decided to trade the Homer and the unders reduced nicely for them. I continued to monitor the markets when after twenty minutes I noticed a scenario that I had never seen before. The unders were reducing nicely but the 1-0 and 1-1 were not moving. There are always games where the away team is dominating in a game at Homer prices but that 1-0 still reduces but at a slower rate. This gave the opportunity of a HomerActive that would have looked totally impossible at KO. I got on it and there was significant liquidity to offer it up complete with staking to all members in the chat room. Quite a few jumped on with me and the goal five minutes before half time secured the profit not only for the Active but for the Homer too. The final score was 1-1 which gives the biggest profit across the CS. For the Active traders a score of overs would have given a much higher profit as the price was 1.45 instead of the Homers 1.70.

The summary of the weekends trades are as follows.

Friday 7/10 Czech Rep v Spain HomerDog. Spain scored on 2 minutes so the insurance kicked in and the trade ended there with a scratch. ROI -7.31%.

Sunday 9/10 Albinoleffe v Livorno HomerDog. The pick was chosen with the objective of a good performance of the home team. It was far from that scenario as Livorno took them apart and were soon in a 0-2 lead. The important third goal came soon after the restart. ROI 29.68%.

Sunday 9/10 Gimnastic v Cartagena Homer. These were the bottom two teams. Both has played six and had still to chalk up their first win and had managed just seven goals. This is a classic Homer pick as two very poor sides up against each other normally results in goals. How wrong could I be as the final score was the dreaded 0-0. ROI -37.52%.

Sunday 9/10 Almeria v Real Valladolid HomerActive. ROI 41.03%.

Now that I will be using the Dog and Active more, I will keep a record of the strategy by type in addition to the total record.

As far as other trades are concerned I had a nice lay of Hamilton in the F1 on the basis of his recent reckless form and the added possibility of letting his team mate Button through if required. Hamilton's early puncture and his aggressive personal battle with Massa secured the profit. I also put in a lay of the Notts.County v Hartlepool score as the game entered added time which was also a great success.

Bad Luck or Fate?

2011-10-06T08:20:00.001+01:00

I had one of those evenings which trading deals out to me occasionally. A day when losses are inevitable no matter what happens on any course or any stadium!

I decided to trade some of the Kempton evening races and went about my trading in the usual way. The fourth race of the evening was the 7.10. It was 1m 4f which is the minimum distance that I trade in running. I allow myself one minute of scalping in a race that on average lasts about two and a half minutes. I was happy with my overall market position when suddenly my Geek software just disappeared. I was left holding my mouse and staring at my desktop. I had left some backs in the market which I only ever do when it's a flat race and knew what they would be swallowed up leaving me with a considerable loss if the favourite went on to lose. My backup is an Ipad running 3g but by the time I had the market up, my backs had been taken and the race was all but over. I am sure it was not a general problem with the software as I was one of it's first users and it has never done that before. I have also been using the current version for a while.

Was it just bad luck or fate! I would have been unharmed had the race been a hurdle or a chase or decided to close pre-race or after the first minute. The race was called 'Back or Lay at Betdaq.com' so perhaps it was a message!

Things did not get better when trading the Homer of Cittadella v Modena. To be honest after the episode with the horses I really wasn't in the right frame of mind but I had the 0-0 scalped and got the prices I wanted across my backs. It was 0-0 at HT but the scalping gave me the advantage to continue to about 55 minutes. Bad luck or fate raised it's ugly head yet again. I exited on 55 minutes only for Cittadella to score 30 seconds later. I had left myself with a scratch possibility but the FT score of 2-0 ensured that I made a loss. ROI -38.64.

I was unapproachable for the rest of the evening!

The Fine Line

2011-10-04T08:03:00.000+01:00

It is a very fine line between winning and losing and this was highlighted in Saturdays trading. My first pick to kick off October was Wolves v Newcastle. At HT the score was 0-2 so the trade was was at zero and it allowed me to continue to 75 minutes before reaching the acceptable loss. Unfortunately the important third goal came far too late and I had already exited with the loss. However things could and should have been very different. Wolves dominated the first half and were awarded a free kick midway through it when the incident clearly took place yards inside the penalty area. The ROI was -36.51%.

The second pick was Inter v Napoli. This certainly didn't go to script and I was extremely lucky to come away with a profit. HT was 0-1 with Inter down to 10 men. The loss at HT was lower than normal as the unders price took into consideration the red card and that more goals were expected. Napoli were in total control but by 55 minutes there were no further goals and I had reached my exit point. As I was about to exit Napoli scored to make it 0-2. I had lost the entire CS but my unders had increased significantly so that the entire trade was a scratch. To exit at this point would have been an acceptable move but I trade to the max loss and I figured that I could go to around 75 minutes before exiting. The scenario then played out exactly is it had 20 minutes earlier. I was ready to exit but before I could place my trades Napoli made it 0-3 and the Homer was landed with an ROI of 31.62%. Another fine line between winning and losing and a fair result that one was a win and the other was a loss.

The final game on Saturday was a HomerActive game Fluminense v Santos which three of us traded via PM in the TF chat room. We started entering trades on 25 minutes and we were able to secure a really low unders price before Santos scored on 33 minutes. 7 minutes later it was 1-1 and we calculated that we would be far better off closing all our positions so at HT we had done so and had achieved a large ROI of 48.98% for 15 minutes work. HomerActives are more profitable but decisions to trade them are made whilst the game is in play and are higher risk because prices are not very stable especially when liquidity is below average.

I didn't do any trading on Sunday or Monday but I suggested that Swansea v Stoke was a good one to get on. The unders price was just below 1.60 at the start so the strat to use would have been the HomerLow. The early goal secured a profit. The FT score of 2-0 would have given traders an above average profit.

As far as QPR are concerned, the least said about that the better!

My facebook is now full of friend requests where no TF alias has been stated. These requests will never be accepted.

September Summary

2011-10-01T06:55:00.001+01:00

On Wednesday I traded the HomerActive on Middlesbro v Leicester. It was a lively game with the home team dominating possession and missing so many chances. The final score of 0-0 meant a loss with an ROI of -37.12%. It was definitely the right pick but unfortunately Middlesbro didn't read the script!

I did not do any trading on Thursday or Friday and so ended a very successful month for the Homer family. The final results for September were as follows.

Traded Matches 23

Profit = 17 Minimum ROI 20.05%, Maximum ROI 90.12% Average ROI 36.05%

Scratch = 2 Average ROI 3.91%

Loss = 4 Minimum ROI -34.98%, Maximum ROI -38.30%, Average ROI -37.04%

Overall P&L if using single stakes = £259.35

Average P&L across all 23 matches = £11.28

Average Liability = £55.96

Average ROI = 20.70%

A loss every 5.75 matches.

Longest winning run = 11

Longest losing run = 1

Please see the Homer Results tab to view the results by match for September 2011.

Update Since Last Friday

2011-09-28T07:16:00.000+01:00

I was thinking about where I want to go with this blog. It was supposed to be a diary of my sports trading which was dominated by my up and down horse racing exploits in the early days. Then after a few months neglect I seem to be posting regularly but this has not been a concious effort, I have just been recording the success I am acheiving with my strategy.

I am surprised but appreciative with the numbers that continue to follow the blog but having read back all my entries this year is it really interesting to see post after post about the Homer? It is for me but I don't think it is for most. I also think it gives the impression of arrogance which in actual fact is the last thing I want to portray. Perhaps it's just the excitement that after years of struggling I have actually got something solid to build on.

I mentioned previously that I was going to trade the horses less and focus on the parts of trading that I am consistently good at. With the main evening racing over it was always going to happen anyway but strangely I really miss getting stuck in with those ladders. It has always been stressful and frustrating but I still feel drawn to it however it is going to be very difficult to find time for a session or two on weekends or the odd late meeting on weekdays but I am going to try to make the effort.

Anyway, so where is all this waffle leading?

Well as usual I don't really know other than to say that I will make it more interesting by including all my other sports trades although my Homer progress will always be the main topic.

So let's bring things up to date on the Homer front.

Sat 24/9 Derby v Millwall - What a strange set of prices that was. At the time Derby was 4th and Millwall was 16th. Friday's MO price for Derby was 2.50 but throughout Saturday morning the price drifted and at KO was 3.20 whilst Millwall was 2.60. How could that be? It just didn't make any sense! In the past I have left these games alone but Derby's CS prices were very meaty so I would have been foolish to have ignored the opportunity. The trade was the HomerDog the result was 3-0 and the job done! ROI 38.26%

Sat 24/9 West Brom v Fulham - This one was not so good. I had 0-0 scalped which gave me the extra minutes but it seemed more obvious as they game progressed that this was going to end 0-0. ROI -37.75%

Mon 26/9 Norwich v Sunderland - This game played out perfectly for the Homer but I made a staking error when I layed the unders which meant that my profit was short on what it should have been. ROI 20.13%.

Tue 27/9 Derby v Barnsley - Another winner but this was lucky as it could have easily been a loss. Barnsley had taken the lead against the run of play. At HT the single stake loss was only £8 thanks to the 1-1 price which was far lower than it usually is. The exit point is £20 and I was £1 short of that when Derby equalised in the 62nd min. Another 30 seconds and I would have started exiting. The scenario of a 0-1 HT score normally means a potential loss of about £12 which would allow the trade to continue until 55 mins. It finished 1-1 which is the highest green. ROI 39.97%..The profit for September would be just short of £280 if using single stakes.

In addition to the Derby Homer I made two speculative lays. One was laying 2-3 in the Man. Utd game as they seem to score very late regularly and that paid off. The other was laying 1-1 in the Derby game on 89 minutes for minimal liability. Unfortunately that didn't come off.

Back to Reality

2011-09-24T00:22:00.000+01:00

On Wednesday I traded Leece v Atalanta which was all over within the first minute when Atalanta scored a penalty. The insurance ensured the scratch. It is such a disappointment having spent considerable time scalping the 0-0 and working hard to get the best CS prices and then finding it's all over before it has even started. The ROI was 6.67%.

I was scratching around for something to jump on and noticed that the Cardiff v Leicester game had developed into HomerActive territory. I entered the market on 30 minutes and the home goal came two minutes later. This time I didn't mind the quick goal. It was an instinctive move to trade it and thus I didn't have time to post it on facebook so it won't go down on my results spreadsheet.

Thursday's Homer pick was Espanyol v Getafe and what a dire game it was. It really was painful to watch. I had a very strong 0-0 green which kept me in the trade until 60 minutes but nothing could save me. I was even surprised to see that Espanyol managed to find the net at the very end. ROI -38.30%.

On Friday Elche v Almeria had Homer prices but I didn't fancy it and was worried that the second division game would not have enough in play liquidity. It would have traded exactly as Leece with the away goal scored in the very first minute. It would have been interesting to trade at the end as there were two goals scored in the third and fourth minute of injury time.

I purchased a three month subscription of the PMT (Pre Match Trading) tool when it was launched at the start of the season but I have been so wrapped up with these Homers that I haven't given PMT the attention it deserves. The reports I have been hearing have been excellent and I will be making a concious effort to use it over the weekend. For anyone that doesn't know about this tool it predicts which way the prices are likely to move over various football markets. Check out the video below.

Woof!

2011-09-21T07:54:00.001+01:00

I have mentioned previously that I have developed a family of Homer strategies. Apart from the main strat which is where the vast majority are picked from, I also have the HomerActive and HomerDog. To be honest the strong success of Homer over the past few weeks has meant that I have rather neglected it's smaller siblings.

The HomerActive has a very similar structure to Homer but it starts in play from anywhere between the 20th and 30th minutes where the score is still 0-0. There is an element of risk as the trades are not executed at the same time. It can also be a bit frantic as the prices are rapidly on the move but the rewards are higher and the max loss is the same as Homer. There is only a very rough idea pre-match which games may lead to an opportunity but the decision to pick will be made around 15 minutes in play and even then it could be scuppered by a goal. The structure is not black and white, every Active trade is slightly different to each other which makes it very difficult to document it. Only top league games with plenty of liquidity can be traded as a group as otherwise there will not be enough cash in the market to go around

The HomerDog is a strat that I have been testing on and off over the past few months. It's main objective is for a home team goal where the away team is a strong favourite. It is not often that I find a game where I strongly feel that the MO prices are wrong and it's this opinion that can lead to a HomerDog opportunity. The game that stood out a mile for me was Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough. Crystal Palace were approx 3.3 and Middlesbrough 2.3. I assume Middlesbrough were priced low as they had won six out of six league and cup away games including a 1-0 win at Selhurst Park last weekend. However Carling Cup games normally lead to large team changes and this is exactly what these two teams did making the stats for each teams recent form irrelevant. As you would expect with a big underdog, the CS prices were much higher. 1-0 was 12.50, 2-0 was 22's. I offered the trade in the TF green room and a few jumped on with me. Unders was much higher than the maximum entry point so we took extra cover on the FG with the aim of executing the lay on 20 minutes. We could afford to do this thanks to the very high CS prices. In the end the home goal came in the 18th minute which was just short of the lay but gained a profit from the FG and CS with an ROI OF 39%. It was picked on facebook so is added to the results spreadsheet.

I am nearly ready to document it and hopefully it will be included in MM at some point.

100 Not Out

2011-09-19T19:45:00.000+01:00

Two from two winning picks on Sunday continued the success in September and took the profitable matches to 100. Septembers profit to single stakes has now passed £250.

Sun 18/9 Rangers v Celtic ROI 31.21%

Sun 18/9 Udinese v Fiorentina ROI 35.98%

Other games that TF members traded profitably which I steered clear of were Sunderland v Stoke and Napoli v AC Milan.

Septembers First Loss in Thirteen

2011-09-18T07:50:00.001+01:00

After a traumatic week I was able to get back in the swing of things on Friday evening and decided to trade Indepiendiente v Colon. The CS prices were not the best so I asked for higher prices and got matched for all but the 1-0 an hour before KO. I had also scalped the 0-0 and was waiting for the lay side to complete it.

Meanwhile I had been notified by a tweeter that there was a competition running for a hospitality ticket at the Wolves game with a seat in the Directors box. I entered but naturally didn't think that anything would come of it. You can imagine my surprise and excitement when I discovered I had won. I was then busily making the arrangements before realising that not only had my traded game been running for fifteen minutes but that it had gone 0-1. My immediate panic was whether the 0-0 scalp lay had been matched as I would have suffured a massive loss had it not. Thankfully the newly introduced 'keep bets' in the football markets had saved me as I had been matched in play. I wasn't so lucky with the 1-0 which by now was obsolete. I had also failed to place my lay of u2.5 so I needed to use the 1-1 to exit which I was able to do with a very small loss.

There were no more goals in the game so had I traded the game properly it would have resulted in the strats acceptable max loss of 35% ROI so I have recorded it as a loss. The strat was never developed to go for thirteen games without loss so a red is to be expected. In fact red runs will occur now and again (as shown on my results tab) but as long as the long term trend maintains it's profitability then I will be comfortable.

I tweaked the stakes at the beginning of the month to give a slightly greater reward for an overs result and for the early goal before the lay but it has increased the max loss of single stakes from £20 to £23 giving an ROI of 35%. I will monitor this over the course of the next couple of weeks to see if the extra rewards are greater than the extra max loss and will make further stake changes if necessary.

I never trade a game involving QPR as I find my heart rules my head when it comes to decision making. However, the Wolves v QPR match had decent Homer prices and many would have thought that it was a reasonable opportunity to get involved. Every football strategy has an achilles heel. For the Homer it is to have a score of 0-2 if the CS market has not been exited after the first goal and where the unders lay has not been placed. Unfortunately this game highlighted the possibility and shows why it is critical to lay off the 1-1 as quickly as possible after the 0-1. In this game QPR scored their second two minutes after their first so hopefully most people were able to exit in time. The FG softens the blow considerably but the reality is that the full CS liability is lost and what was an approx small profit of £5 at 0-1 becomes a £15 loss at 0-2. It doesn't sound much at single stakes and is less than the strats acceptable max loss but you are left totally helpless with just 10 minutes of the game played rather than the larger opportuntity of the entire half. This has only happened in just two of my picks.

Thanks to Mark from Sportingbet.com for looking after me at Wolves. The hospitality, never ending food and drink and of course the win were all first class. It was a fabulous day out. I never would have known that Beverley Knight is a Wolves supporter!

Had all of my September picks been followed using just single stakes which is having an initial liability of of approx £64 to exit at a max loss of £23. The trading bank would be £220 higher. This is after deduction of commission.

I am in the mood for some Horse trading this afternoon. Will try to multi task with the footie

Hope you like the new background!

The Run Continues But Is Now On Hold

2011-09-13T22:59:00.000+01:00

There were four picks announced on Facebook over the weekend that were all winners.

Sat 10/9 Everton v Aston Villa ROI 30.85%

Sat 10/9 Coventry v Derby County ROI 23.35%

Sun 11/9 Birmingham v Millwall ROI 30.91%

Sun 11/9 Espanyol v Athletico Bilbao ROI 31.23%

I was a little anxious with the Espanyol game as I had already committed to a couple of the prices at multiple stakes but could not get a successful scalp pre-match. I don't like staking so high if I do not have cover on the 0-0. The game didn't fill me with positivity as goal mouth action was very limited. Thankfully Espanyol scored towards the end of the first half to keep this excellent run going which is now at eleven consecutive profits averaging at over 30% ROI and thirteen picks without a loss.

The ratio of losses against total matches picked is currently exactly 25%. So for every four games traded there is just the one loss.

I have not experienced one losing Homer trade in twelve this month.

Unfortunately I have a sudden and important personal issue which is going to take up most of my time over the next few days. During this time I will not be looking out for any Homer picks or adding to this blog. My time with the TF community will be very limited but hopefully I will be back in the thick of it at the weekend but that cannot be guaranteed.

Lo to Hi in Shamrock

2011-09-10T14:42:00.001+01:00

Let me make it clear. In last nights game between Shamrock and Sligo, anyone who did not scalp pre-game the result was a scratch plain and simple.

The game reached HT at 0-0 with little goalmouth action. The correct decision was to exit as per the strat description leaving the possibility of an escape if three goals were scored in the second half. However I also presented an option for those who were prepared to take a risk for an additional £15 loss. That was to close the CS which was showing a loss of £3 and leave the unders untouched and perhaps start to trade out if two quick goals materialised.

Shamrock scored on 60 minutes and to my surprise there were quite a few excited members stating that the Homer had succeeded. To be honest I was shocked as I realised that some members did not exit at all. The whole basis of making any kind of long term profit is to be totally disciplined. What is the point of having an exit strategy which some members choose to ignore. They had got away with it and went away with a £19.50 profit but they had risked the full liabilty of £65 to acheive this. It's not trading, it's gambling.

For those that chose the riskier option of closing the CS but leaving the unders market open, the 60th minute goal didn't make much impact so there was little option but to continue to leave the unders market open. Shamrock then had a player sent off which was not a good thing as you would expect them to park the bus to protect their lead. As far as the rest of us still in the trade were concerned it was almost certain curtains for the trade.

On the 80th minute Sligo equalised and unders rose to the price it had started at and the trade could be exited for a scratch, however everyone who had decided to risk that extra £15 decided to continue. One minute into injury time and Shamrock were down to nine men as another red card was issued. The last kick of the game Sligo scored and pandemonium broke out with the realisation that traders on single stakes had just won £46 an ROI of 73%.

There is nothing wrong with taking that extra risk and accept a higher loss but what is not acceptable is to continue blindly and risk it all.

For me and anyone else who had scalped the 0-0 it was a strong profit. As I had scalped 0-0 I was able to continue until 55 minutes when I closed the CS for a £10 profit. By this time unders had reached 1.05 so there was absolutely no point in doing anything with it and I had resigned myself that 3 goals would never be scored in the last 35 minutes and that it was likely that the trade would be my first red in 9 games. The rest is history as I collected the full overs profit plus my CS profit. An ROI of 90%.

Quickie

2011-09-06T23:38:00.004+01:00

Just a quick post to say that the Estonia v Northern Ireland Homer pick was a winner. ROI 37.1%. That's eight consecutive trades without a loss and just one scratch.

Not a bad result when the market had under 2.5 at almost 1.52 pre match.

I am under no illusion that this positive run won't go on forever and there will be a time again when Iosses will take up a large section of my spreadsheet but I am so pleased that the long term winning trend of my picks has been consistent throughout. I would be happy with a no loss strike rate of 60% but 74% is more than I ever imagined.

I don't just trade Homers as there simply isn't enough of them that I pick. You just can't trade every game where the prices fit. Research and constructive reasoning is required to give the best chance.

Football trading is definitely where my heart is.

A Geeks Toy Pro - Well Done

2011-09-06T11:37:00.001+01:00

Having used AGT Pro since it's conception, I have always sung it's praises. Whilst not having all the trading features that competitors offer it had enough for most traders. The fact that it performs faster than all the opposition I have tried, it rarely crashes and that it's free has always given it the edge.

However, things have now changed big style. Paul over at Geek HQ has just released a beta version which is available for all to use which introduces an extensive amount of new features shown below:

1. The stop loss is finally here!

2. The stop loss includes a trailing stop, where the loss position decrements 1 tick for every tick the market moves in your favour.

3. A new menu option has been added to the Tools & default staking menu called “Use Global Tools”. When switched on, the tools behave as currently & apply to new bets placed on all markets. When switched off, a new Tools Toolbar appears at the top of the ladder & right of the grid which enables you to set tools at selection & market level.

4. Cancel Tools on Market Hedge - When switched on, this option will cancel all tools active on all bets in the market when the whole market is hedged using one of the various options.

5. Cancel Tools on Selection Hedge – When switched on, this option will cancel all tools active on all bets on that selection when the selection is hedged.

6. New MACD chart added to the streaming charts.

7. You can now change the shortcut keys for the ladder and bet controls. This can be opened via the main info bar menu.

8. Support has been built in for the Betfair live video page which maximises screen real estate. It can be launched via either the Main Info Bar menu, or when a market is available to watch on Betfair video, a TV icon will show next to the countdown clock which you can click.

9. A new multi bet placement window has been added which can be opened from the Main Info Bar menu when a Market is open. { Dutch flag. } This window allows you to place bets on one ore more selections using the following popular methods in either stand alone or combinations of….

• Dutching / Bookmaking

• Back / Lay the field.

• Stop Entry ( Price conditional entry }

• Place bets at a specified time.

• Drip Feed

10.Keep bets are now supported in the Correct Score markets

11. Multi language support.

12. Paul promises additional new features very soon.

Please note that as this is a beta there could be some bugs around but I have used it for the past couple of days and it has been working perfectly.

Ladies and Gentleman, the decision to choose AGT is now the biggest no brainer out of all no brainers! This software is a very serious player in the Sports Trading sector. It is now very rich in features and would proudly stand side by side with it's competitors similar products. However, it can step one pace forward from the rest due to the fact that it is free.

It's free and there is no catch! It is not often that this statement is true!

Hop on over to the AGT Forum for more details and instructions on how to download the software..

No Homers yesterday but I did dabble in a couple of trades which were both successful.

There is one pick for today which is on facebook. If you would like to link up with me you must quote your Trading Football chat alias otherwise you won't be able to gain access. They have a free 14 day trial so if you subscribe using the banner on the right, you can gain access.

Excellent Weekend

2011-09-05T00:47:00.000+01:00

I traded three successful Homers which were announced on facebook and one successful HomerActive.

Scotland v Czech Republic ROI 30.40%

Braintree v Lincoln (Active) ROI 36.21%

Lanus v Estudiantes ROI 35.18%

Rec de Huelva v Celta Vigo ROI 46.8%

HomerActives are almost impossible to pick in advance. The circumstances have to be just right mid game plus on many occasions there just isn't enough liquidity to share the trade with many.
I am wary of aftertiming not only with the Active strat but any other Homer that I decide to trade last minute outside the TF community. So to ensure complete credibility I will show the game up on facebook as I jump into the trade. I will only include these games in my results if it is shown on fb and that the score is clearly acknowledged as 0-0 at the time.

The concept is still the same. It is just started mid game.

Still waiting for the first loss this month.

I also continued trading the horses and came away with £86.89

0-2 and what to do.

2011-09-03T10:32:00.001+01:00

I did not take part in any Homer trading from Monday to Thursday as the fixtures and liquidity were awful.

I used the Israel v Greece game as a fun trade to do a little tinkering. What started as a Homer ended as a CS Jobby (a proven TF strategy) which enabled me to finish the game as a scratch.

Belarus v Bosnia was my main pick as posted on facebook. I invested heavily in the game and exited shortly after the score went to 0-2 which was in the 25th minute. Had the second goal arrived after the 40th minute my situation would have been at scratch so I would have continued until I had reached the max loss point but because the goal came early I was satisfied with my profitable position and took it, particularly as my stakes were high. My ROI was naturally lower than average at 20% This is something that I would not have done 12 months ago when I was taking gambles rather than sensible decisions.

The strat mainly progresses through the first half with little intervention but 0-2 is the one scoreline where serious decisions need to be made. Provided the lay has been matched before any goals are scored, a 0-2 score up to 40 minutes will usually mean that entire trade is in profit. Naturally the earlier the 0-2 the greater the profit. Whether you immediately take the profit, wait to HT and then take the scratch or push on for that third goal is entirely personal choice. There is no right or wrong way to proceed as long as you exit when faced with the acceptable max loss.

Today's pick has been posted on my facebook page.

Darren over at Betting System Notes has released a video demonstrating the features of the MarketMatcher tool. I have reproduced it below and ask that if you are interested in his service, please subscribe via the banner on the right.

A Hard Slog for £50

2011-08-30T06:46:00.000+01:00

As you can see below, I spent over four hours trading the horses across 51 races. It was a hard slog in which I had to start again mid session having made a loss of £39 on one race. In the end I came away with profit of just over £50 which isn't a bad wage for four hours work but when you look at it as £1 per race it really is a disappointing result. You will notice that I dabbled in a couple of WC events too.

There is nothing that jumps out of todays inplay football games. There are plenty of them but they are mostly the paint trophy games which I doubt will have much money going through those markets. Will take a closer look later in the afternoon.

Horse Day

2011-08-29T12:02:00.000+01:00

I traded three games yesterday. Newcastle v Fulham. I heavily invested in this one but was worried that I had not scalped enough 0-0 to cover me for much of the second half. I had not reached my max limit at HT thanks to the 0-0 scalp and calculated that I could go on until 52 minutes. Thankfully Newcastle scored just after HT and I was able to manage my position for a significant profit.

I was leading the trade in TF and for the one's that didn't have the 0-0 scalp I advised to close the CS position but to leave unders as they were as the price was far lower than normal and there was not much to be gained by reducing the overs profit to a scratch. The goal came and I advised to back half of the unders lay. The second goal was scored a few minutes later members were able to exit at a nice profit. There were some members who followed the exact rules and they scratched when overs was reached. ROI 28%

The next game of WBA v Sunderland was traded via the webinar. This was a loser and we traded out at HT with an ROI of -30%.

I traded the final game on my own. It was Colon v Union. The game ended 0-2 but I had greened up soon after the first away goal for an ROI of 35%. This is a good example to show that the home team doesn't need to score to collect a profit. In fact this was my highest ROI % of the day.

Today I am putting all my focus on the horses. There are so many meetings in the afternoon that I expect liquidity will be down and hopefully a few big traders will decide to spend the day with their families which will be good for me as I trade better with less money floating about. I will put the entire horse P&L for the day up on here.

Saturday Disappointment

2011-08-28T08:12:00.002+01:00

Traded one game on Friday. Ingolstadt v Rostock which was successful ROI 33%.

However yesterday I suffered the same two game loss that I experiences the previous Saturday.

Swansea v Sunderland ROI -31% - This was the second week running that Swansea let me down with another 0-0 result.
Granada v Real Betis ROI -11% - This was small as I had scalped the 0-0 and could have gone on well into the second half but decided to exit at HT.

Despite my setback the August stats are still encouraging.
Picks 40, Green 28, Scratch 3, Red 9
No loss stike rate 77.5%. Loss every 4.44 picks.

I found a very interesting statistic. Bearing in mind that I trade multi games most days, the only times where I have lost two games (never lost more) in one day are:

SATURDAY 27/8 traded 2 games
SATURDAY 20/8 traded 2 games
SATURDAY 30/7 traded 2 games
SATURDAY 18/6 traded 3 games
Thursday 16/6 traded 2 games

Perhaps I should choose Saturdays as a day off!

An Excellent Evening

2011-08-26T02:36:00.000+01:00

The evening certainly didn't pan out as I was expecting. I was going to trade the horses but I just couldn't leave the football markets alone even though I wasn't interested in the Europa competition. I just had to take a quick peek at MarketMatcher which had three Homer selections. The one that caught my eye was Dinamo Tbilisi v AEK Athens. AEK were 1-0 ahead from the first leg so Tbilisi needed to get a goal if they wanted to progress. I posted the pick on my facebook page with details of Tbilisi's recent home performances which were very encouraging.

However, I didn't expect them to score inside the first minute. Under normal circumstances the profit (although not a big as when the lay is executed) was secured but Betfair did not suspend the markets immediately after the goal so they then suspended it for the next 35 minutes while they sorted through and eventually voided all the bets that were made after the goal. During these 35 minutes another goal to either side would have resulted in a loss of the overall trade. Thankfully this didn't happen and we eventually traded out in a far better position giving the TF members a large 72% ROI.

Because I had to keep my eye on the Tbilisi game while it was under suspension, I couldn't switch to the horses. By the time I had exited my position I was not in the mood for the horses.

There were two other Europa games where the prices qualified for the Homer which I didn't fancy but others took the plunge.

Sion v Celtic - The home team scored in the 3rd minute but the Celtic red card spoilt the usual post goal CS prices. However the profit was acceptable as like Tbilisi the lay wasn't executed. 27% ROI.

Birmingham v Nacional Madeira - The home team scored in the 15th minute and added a second before HT. The FT score was 3-0 which secured 25% ROI.

I then turned my eye towards Salzburg v Omonia Nicosia. Salzburg were 1-2 down from the first leg but a goal would see them take the advantage by the away goal. Salzburg was too strong a favourite to be a Homer pick but with the game at 0-0 on 38 minutes the prices all fell onto the Homer radar and I was able to trade the HomerActive. Salzburg scored in the 51st minute and my profit was secured with an ROI of 51%. HomerActives will always be a higher profit but can only be picked instinctively mid match.

The final Homer pick was the 12.15am game Palmeiras v Vasco da Gama. This was a Brazilian Copa 2nd leg match. The first leg was a 2-0 win to Vasco da Gama so Palmeiras needed to push for a goal to get back into the tie. The prices were just on the minimum that is acceptable but I decided to proceed with the many TF members who were still in chat and awake! We were rewarded with a home goal on 13 minutes. The game ended 3-1 and we took away an ROI of 25%.

Five Homer family trades were available and all five won. Only the three matches that I traded will be added to the spreadsheet. I will be putting my picks on Facebook only but will report on their outcomes on here and on twitter. I have put one up for tomorrow already so If you want to be a part of my facebook community please link up with me with a message of your TF chat alias. Unfortunately if I don't see 'friends' occasionally in the 'green' room then the link will be removed.

2011-08-25T10:57:00.002+01:00

I traded two games yesterday.

Jubilo Iwata v Vegalta Sendia FT 1-1 loss -31.04% ROI.

Udinese v Arsenal FT 1-2 won +34.9%.

I don't fancy all those Europa games so will be having a session on the horses tonight, just like old times.

Udinese v Arsenal

2011-08-24T10:05:00.001+01:00

Below is a screenshot from MarketMatcher. It has correctly stated that the Udinese v Arsenal game has all the Homer parameters. However this is just a selection tool. You must do your own research to decide whether the game has a good chance of the strat succeeding. I never play games from the Portugal or France leagues but MM will still offer you the opportunity to trade them. Even if you don't have specific strategies, what a handy tool this is to see all the markets on one page.

We all know that Udinese need to score but will they start the game with all guns blazing or will their tactics be sedate in the first half to ensure Arsenal don't score before taking risks after HT?

I am undecided!

If you have your own strategy then use the custom feature for MarketMatcher to find those games instantly. One payment of £39.99 will give you lifetime access to Betting System Notes including this tool and details of proven strategies.

Late Night Profit

2011-08-24T08:33:00.000+01:00

Having returned from QPR's woeful performance, a few of us got on the late night Supercup between Botafogo v Atletico MG to trade the HomerActive. It was the first time that this strat was lead through the main chat. We jumped on in the around the 30th minute and were rewarded with a home goal just before HT.

Just going to tidy up the video I did last week and pass it to the Nugget Crew for their approval so hopefully it will be available to TF members by the weekend.

Just reviewing my August results.

Total Homers traded = 32.
Winners = 23
Scratches = 3
Losers = 6
No Loss Strike Rate = 81%. That is one loss every 4.33 matches

More Results

2011-08-22T22:06:00.000+01:00

What a night at TF. St.Patricks was a winner thanks to the late first half red card which gave us more time to stay in the trade beyond HT and pick up a nice profit.

A few did the HomerActive on Man.U. v Tottenham and came out smiling!

One trader went against my advice and traded the Portugal game
SC Olhanens v Vitória Setúbal and that won too.

Plenty of profit to share around for TF members. Including the nuggets recommended trade on the Man.U. game which came up trumps. Trading doesn't have to be selfish and arrogant.

Splashing the Cash

2011-08-22T17:14:00.004+01:00

Someone is wanting to show off their £100,000 bank size. There was only £500,000 matched before the off!

3 Wins from 3 Picks and a Rant!

2011-08-22T02:04:00.000+01:00

My two early morning picks on Facebook were both successful.

13.30 Norwich v Stoke

14.00 Wolves v Fulham

I also traded Vasco de Gama v Fluminense in the TF chat room late in the evening for which it was successful to a 37% ROI.

That takes the Homer results for August to 28 Homers, 20 Profit, 3 Scratch, 5 Loss.

I have received a few negative comments which has left me a little bewildered and very irritated. If I had any intention of trying to sell this strategy I could perhaps understand some of it, but I am not and have no intention of doing so. This is my blog of my Sports trading journey and here I am at last suddenly making a decent amount of money on this journey (not the same journey as Jacks you understand) and quite proud that I have found something myself that works. I tested it quietly for weeks and was getting green after green and it was only after a few months when the green trend continued that I started to think I might have something that works. The win and loss are more or less the same so as long as there are more wins it's going to be profitable so I am sharing it with the TF community and have documented the results since it became an approved TF strategy.

I am documenting it for all to see as it is possible to make a success at trading. Read it or don't read it but abusive comments are totally unnecessary and it would be a shame to consider taking the blog down.

I do not just use the Homer as it is only applicable to a handful of games per week, I compliment it with other proven TF strats that I have learnt from the Nugget Crew. So if I am to be accussed of anything it can be for promoting their service. Yes Bingo and Ads run a business and I am sure they make a tidy sum for doing so........and you know what, they deserve it and good luck to them, they work hard for their members and want them to succeed but members also need to help themselves and work hard to improve their skills.

They changed me and others so if you want to see for yourself, they have a free 14 day trial. It makes absolutely no difference to me what you do but if you decide not to then that's your choice but please don't moan to me about it!

I Have Had Better Days

2011-08-21T09:19:00.001+01:00

Well that was a disappointment. Both picks lost and the Sunderland game didn't do much better either. However with 3 losses from 23 games in August before yesterday, I can't really complain.

I mentioned on facebook that I would be trading the San Lorenzo game last night but decided not to when the 1-0 plummeted to 6.6. The game would have been a winning Homer.

Homer EPL 20/8 Picks and Opinions

2011-08-20T07:23:00.001+01:00

There are three qualifying EPL matches.

Naturally it is much too early in the season to evaluate any kind of form to make a strong judgment. Unfortunately we can't put the ball in the net but I feel my picks give the best opportunity for trades to be successful.

12:00pm Sunderland v Newcastle

Last time these teams met at the Stadium of Light their were no goals in the first half. There is no real evidence to suggest not to pick this game but at this stage of the season some opinions are made just with gut feeling. Mine is that this local derby will be a scrappy first half affair with limited opportunities but that is just personal opinion. Avoiding.

12:45pm Arsenal v Liverpool

If you are picking a Homer game to get value from the potential profit then this is the game. Two of our CS scores have strong prices. I have done a CS single stakes evaluation which show greens at the very high end of Homer profitability. Arsenal have their injury problems but are always strong at the Emirates. Much is expected of Liverpool this season now that KD has a full season at the helm but they continue to be unpredictable away and have leaked three goals in each of their five away friendlies. Away EPL defeats to Aston Villa, West Brom and West Ham towards the end of last season reinforces their unpredictability. Strong Pick.

15:00pm Swansea v Wigan

Swansea score goals at home and today they are against a team that were lucky to escape the drop last season. Despite Swansea's large defeat to Manchester City, they will be fired up for their first ever EPL game in front of their home fans. Their last eight home Championship scores were 3-0, 3-0, 1-1, 3-2, 3-0, 1-1, 4-1, 4-0. Homer prices will give above average greens but not close to the Arsenal game. Good Pick.

For more detailed information about the Homer and it's progress, please follow my Facebook page. You will need to be a full member of the Trading Football Service and supply me your chat alias in order to gain access.

Click on the right for a free Trading Football 14 day trial or immediately apply for full membership to gain access to their strategy page including a detailed document of then Homer strategy with HomeLow variation. Their banner is on the right.

Or make a one off payment of £39.99 before the price rises to Betting System Notes. Their banner is also on the right.

Please note that this is the only week I am putting my picks on my blog. From next week I will only be publishing my results.

If you have any queries, please email me.

Address is handyandyblog@yahoo.co.uk.

Stay green.

Four from Four Homers

2011-08-18T15:20:00.001+01:00

7.45pm Maccabi v Genk ROI 35%

9.05pm Colon v All Boys ROI 35%

11.40pm Atletico v Cruziero ROI 39%

1.15am Racing Club v Godoy ROI 24%

Strike Rate 74%

Homer sweet Homer

2011-08-16T13:02:00.004+01:00

I have had a few complaints about the marble effect behind my posts. It should have been a solid blue and has been fine up until recently. So I have now made a few changes to make it more readable.

My football trading has been going well, particularly the blistering performance of my Homer strategy as you can see below. The great factor in this strat is that the home team doesn't necessarily need to score for a successful trade. Take yesterdays Argentina league game between Atletico and Arsenal. At half time the score was 0-3 and the Homer was already a winner.

I don't trade Portugal league matches as they tend to be defensive games that are often still 0-0 at HT but even yesterdays game between Leiria v Academica was a winner!

You can follow my picks on Facebook but you will need to be a Trading Football member and then supply me with your chat Alias. Click on the right for a free 14 day trial. If you want access to a detailed document of the strategy then subscribe monthly to Trading Football or a one off payment to Betting System Notes. Their banners are on the right.

MarketMatcher -A MUST tool for all Football Traders

2011-08-07T13:27:00.003+01:00

MarketMatcher is a fantastic tool from the Betting System Notes website that selects games to trade by either using the successful preset strats or by selecting custom price parameters. It used to take me around 20-30 minutes to study a large weekend card but with MarketMatcher it shows you in an instant.

I was lucky enough to extensively test the tool before it was launched yesterday, particularly the Homer and I have total confidence in it's accuracy.

Even if you just back normally rather than trade, just select liquidity as 1 and select games for the next 24 hours. It will then list all the Betfair inplay games and it will be much easier than the Betfair site to click each game and see the Match Odds, Correct Score, U1.5, U2.5, U3.5, U4.5 all together on one screen. It really is a marvellous tool.

The Betting System Notes website also has a tool for recording your football strategies so that they can be easily accessed as and when you need them. The tool comes with many strats already set up whether or not you are subscribed to any football service. If that isn't enough there are regular updates of sports trading news, videos and other tools.

There is no monthly subscription. There is just one off single payment of £39.99 to give you access to all the features. There are more tools planned which will be free to all members.

Click the banner on the right or the links in this post to take a look for yourself on what is on offer.

The Family of Homer Strategies

2011-08-04T09:07:00.002+01:00

Over the past 4 years I have traded many sports but my primary market has always been pre-race Horse Racing. I have made a profit from the horses but not enough compared to the hours I have put in More recently I have been trading in play which has been successful but to be honest it's too intense to be enjoyable.

I have always traded the Football markets as a secondary sport but I was always useless and losing money on a regulate basis. I used to mainly use the popular Lay the Draw strategy for small stakes but there was never a concrete structure to it to ever contemplate any decent income from it.

Then about a year ago I accidentally came across the Trading Football Markets service run by Adster and Bingo. I decided to join but was sceptical like most noobs would be trying to get on the trading bandwagon. I quickly realised that this was a decent reliable service. They trade games in their chat room but not just for lemmings to follow. They explain why they make their in play decisions and they encourage members to think for themselves.

Bingo and Ads have always been supportive but there were also a couple of others that are sadly are no longer members that used to regularly coach me late at night (when there wasn't the numbers at midnight like there are now) when they weren't trading themselves and often getting me out of a massive hole I had dug for myself. I learnt a lot from them and one year later I am making consistent profits having for the first time last month profited at over £1,000 on just my football trading.

I have developed a family of strategies called Homer listed below

Homer

HomerLow

HomerActive (previously named Homer30)

HomerDog

I tested and tweaked the Homer over a number of weeks which is now regularly played within the TF chat room. It has proved very successful. The full details of the strategy and it's HomerLow variation is posted on two sites. Trading Football and Betting System Notes. Both can be accessed by their banners on the right.

Betting System Notes is a great website which focus's on successful strategies. It includes software where you can access details of proven strategies and add others to it. It is also about to launch a new product that is a must for all football traders. I have been lucky enough to be testing it myself. There is a one time charge to access all their services. Head over to them via the banner on the right to see for yourself.

HomerActive and the brand new HomerDog will be added to the TF and BSN over the next week or so. There will also be videos explaining the strategies.

So what's in it for me? Nothing apart from the green that I am steadily building. I genuinely just want to give something back to the TF community and show that there are a very small amount of trading services that really care about it's members and genuinely want them to become successful. If it wasn't for TF I wouldn't be in the position I am.

The proof of such a good service is the fact that most experienced members have never left to continue to trade on our own. As far as I am concerned trading a football game without sharing it in TF is like eating a Big Mac without the meat!

So what has all this got to do with my first paragraph about the horses? Well I have decided to make Football my primary sport for trading. I am going to show my faith in my own strategies by trading the main leagues at much higher stakes and compliment them with the already proven strategies that Bingo, Ads and senior members have introduced with a view to becoming a full time trader.

You can follow my Homer Picks on my Facebook page. I am Handy Andy with a picture of my profile. You must be a TF member so please send me a friend request stating your chat room alias.

There are many football strategy products that are being introduced for the start of the main season but with most you are just given an ebook to get on with it yourself but with TF you are never alone.

Stay green.

8.20 Hamilton - A Real Mystery

2011-07-16T10:20:00.005+01:00

I am really scratching my head on this one. As the race entered the final furlong I put in a £100 lay of the current leader Comedy Act at 1.15 which didn't get matched and as the horse was being headed I moved onto the next race.

I am scalping the next race when I notice my bank balance had significantly increased. It was £270 higher than it should be so I examined my P&L and found this.

The above shows that I placed my back for the eventual winner, French Hollow at 20.17 which is before the start time but I never entered the market pre race. Furthermore when I put my lay into the market whilst in play, the grid was empty. Anyone would have noticed £270 on one selection with £100 red on all the others. I have been trading horses for four years so I know when a grid is empty!

In the past four years I have occasionally left back or lays in the market and paid the consequence but have always remembered what stupid mistakes I had done. However with this race the only time I entered the market was to put in the lay.

To be honest not knowing exactly what happened is really annoying me especially when I could have very easily lost £100. I will take any profit handed out to me from the twists of fate but it is tainted by the fact that it just doesn't make any logical sense.

I have changed my password for peace of mind but know that it couldn't be anybody hacking in unless it was my guardian angel deciding that I deserve a few more pennies in my account.

What will happen to the elite?

2011-06-30T08:00:00.005+01:00

I have decided to try to continue to post at least once a week but make the content more than just my P&L performance.

Let's start with the recent Premium Charge rises which will only affect a ‘small’ number of successful customers who have acheived lifetime profits of over £250,000. For customers who were profiting from the very start of Betfairs existence that would mean that to reach today's milestone they only needed to profit at an average of £60 per day. When you look at it from that perspective, the quarter of a million doesn't look that impossible to many people. Us bog standard traders know that it 's far easier said than done. Nevertheless should these elite few be penalised for profiting perhaps as low us £25,000 a year? I am sure they would argue that they have been instrumental in making Betfair what it is today.

I admit that I am not the brightest spark and I apologies in advance if I make naive comments but surely a PC of up to 60% of any profit is going to force the elite to move to Betdaq. What choice do they have? I cannot see how they can accept giving away more profit than they will earn.

I know there is always talk of a mass move and that nothing ever happens but isn’t this going to force the issue or will the loss of the elite make minimal impact to the liquidity. Is this what Betfair want?

I understand that the more a customer trades the more points they get and the less commission Betfair will receive from the constant winners which is disproportionate to the average customer base and that existing losing customers are leave Betfair quicker than expected when they find that they just cannot cut it as a trader but don’t they need to balance that with the risk of assisting other exchanges to grow?

From a selfish point of view, if the Elite do disappear from the scene it may make trading the ladders much easier. I know I find trading the ladders a whole lot easier on Sundays when I am sure that most professional traders take time off with the family. If it puts extra green in my pocket at the expense of the elite then that’s payback for all the times I have been screwed when the ladders go against me for long enough. It will also evolve over time to elevate a new elite group who will have a few years to enjoy the fruits of successful trading before reaching the upper limit.

I would really be interested to read comments from others on this.

Now, from successful traders to one particular person that I cannot get my head around. John from Betafir Profit and Loss. I respect anyone who takes the time to blog and with John you really get the feel of what is going on in his mind and his heart. When you read the comments from many people they may criticise John but it is almost always constructive rather than abusive. He gets criticism quite often in the blogging world too and it is done to genuinely try to help him rather than to kick him when he’s down.

John was very successful up to the end of September 2010 and showed his P&L for the previous 3 months at around £12k but since then things have gone downhill quite rapidly. In the last few months John has been sending the same message again and again. He says he is continuing to lose as he simply doesn’t have the large bank he needs to profit. This is simply not true and he has been told that more times than I can remember. If he has an edge to a winning strategy it doesn’t matter if he puts £2 or £200 on it as the end result is a win. His £12k profit he made between June and September 2010 may result in £600 this time round if he adopts the same strategy. Then he has a decent bank to move forward. In the last three months that he has been moaning about his bank he would have recovered his position to at least have more resources to step up. While John continues to take the view that a small bank will not work for him he will continue to lose. Psychology is all part of the trading game. If you are not in the right mindset you cannot possibly be successful in the dog eat dog trading world where there is such a fine line between success and failure. In his last couple of posts he is complaining about his small loss in the last three months but he fails to comment that in his last week of the three months he has won £226. He must stop his negative thoughts of how things used to be in the past and concentrate on being positive and moving forward. John doesn’t have any other income so he is under even more pressure to succeed which can also lead to unreasonable and rash trading decisions.

I and many others want to see him turn things around. Firstly he needs to be positive. Review his historical P&L for one last time and understand what went wrong then reduce his sport portfolio to concentrate on his strongest markets. He then needs to draw a line and start with a fresh page forgetting the past. I don’t want to read anything referring to how things were good last year. He needs to have a clear strategy on each market and keep to it. If he was successful in 2010 through strategy rather than being lucky then he will continue to profit. Bank size is totally irrelevant as he can reduce his stakes to scale but if he wants to start with a higher bank then the harsh reality is to find a job however junior it may be.

Us occasional bloggers are not all losing money!

2011-06-22T13:30:00.016+01:00

I have been spurred on to add to my blog by a few factors. The biggest one is by Cassini at Green all Over and his extended post this morning celebrating his 250,000 hit. It is a big acheivement to keep blogging to the extent that he has over the past three years but I take umbrage to his sweeping statement that bloggers who have not lasted the course are losing money. He may have the time to devote many hours to blogging but some of us make lifestyle changes that make it very difficult to continue.

The other factors which I have been surprised at include the many messages asking me to come back and the fact that despite not posting for two months, I still receive thirty separate hits a day.

Whilst I was blogging I wasn't able to devote my time to really knuckle down on the football trading. I used to be in the TF chat room a couple of nights a week but now I am logged in on most days after the evenings racing has ended. I have developed my own successful Homer strategy which I log on my new facebook page and compliment this with some of the TF's established strategies. I cannot tell you how TF has totally changed how I trade football games and they are the best service by far if you want to get into football trading. Both my Horse Racing and Football trading has improved greatly and my profits are now consistent which I have been trying to reach unsuccessully over the last four years.

Blogging was an important part of my daily life whilst I was struggling trading but I have reached the point where the hour or two spent posting is better spent sharpening my trading skills. If I continue posting showing profits I am only going to be accused of showing off anyway and that has never been my intention so I am seriously considering calling it a day blogging.

I have said recently that I now trade inplay on races that are over 1m 4f which has really worked well and the reason is a bizarre but simple one. I never watch the race. I just react to the price movements. If I watch the race I am seeing and reacting to events that I am well behind on so there is no way I can ever maintain any kind of profit. Not watching changes things for me. I cannot describe what these price movements are but when it is about to drop down it reacts in a certain way and I am right most of the time and when I am wrong I set myself a price to get out. I have been caught out a few times but not so much as to wipe out a large portion of my profits.

One other thing. As I have been using Geek for a long time, I decided to take a free trial out with Fairbot and Gruss just to see what the competition is like. I have even traded a whole evenings card using the two trialists and I was back using Geek as they don't come close. Bet Angel is as good but I can't use it as it is too slow.

....oh and if anyone decides to make stupid comments, sign in with your name or don't bother!

Making Progress

2011-04-28T21:34:00.000+01:00

Apart from the small football loss in the early hours of Monday, I had a rest from trading. It was an emotional rollercoaster at QPR and I didn't feel like doing much when I got home other than chill.

We were nine minutes from being champions when Hull decided to spoil the show with their only shot on target. However when our game finished we were promoted so long as Norwich didn't get a very late goal. Of course we all know what happened in the sixth minute of injury time which put a dampener on the afternoon. Pundits have been saying how we are as good a promoted but I don't agree. We are six points ahead of Cardiff with a 13 goal difference which could reasonably be overturned. We never beat Watford at Vicarage Road which if other results don't go our way will leave a rather nervy last game at home to Leeds.

The small break must have done me some good as I has a marvellous Tuesday evenings trading. I was juggling between the horses and a couple of early snooker frames of the evening session. I also traded a successful Homer in the Stoke game and put a lay on the draw in the Man.U game just as they scored and was disappointed that it wasn't matched.

I broke all the rules by laying a greyhound to win £25 or lose quite a bit more. But it was no ordinary greyhound. This one was called Miss Betfair and it came last.

Homing In On Profit

2011-04-25T10:35:00.002+01:00

Another horse huff and puff session with lots of effort without reward. You can see from the image below that I lost close to £70 on the closing races. I seem to regularly have a good start only for it to be undone towards that end. It must be due to fatigue that results in loss of concentration.

Most of the snooker profit was gained yesterday when Higgins was playing Mcloed. Higgin's price at the start of each frame was an incredibly low 1.45 so there was plenty of room to manoeuvre thoughout each frame.

The football was an experience as I successfully led the Trading Football community through trading an Argentinian game between Arsenal and Gimnasia using the Homer strategy. The winning result showed a 32% roi. It really was a responsible and pressured experience until the first goal, as it was not just my cash at risk. I also led an unsuccesful trade at 12.15 in the morning where there were about 30 others burning the midnight oil. The exit was at half time and meant a small loss of £10 but any players that decided to stick it out were rewarded as the final score of 2-1 meant that one part of the strategy which was the U2.5 lay at 1.68 came home.

The TF community has really grown over the past couple of months with some great characters old and new. It's such a pleasure entering into discussions with other members without any fear of abuse. Everyone supports each other and we are a close bunch which is suprising in such a virtual world.

So £32 has been gained over the past couple of days. Not alot but at least it's in the right direction.

Off to QPR soon for the game with Hull. A win will guarantee promotion and the championship so will be an emotional afternoon if all goes to plane. Just hope we don't get bitten in the bum by losing points after the hearing next week.

Who Needs The Horses

2011-04-23T11:05:00.007+01:00

A day when everything goes to plan is very rare but I acheived it without any horse racing and finished the day with a satisfying £123.

I wasn't even trading all day. The morning was spent trading a handful of snooker frames, earning £53 followed by an afternoon out with the family. I traded two football games using my newly named Homer. This is the strategy backing 1-0 1-1 2-0 and laying u2.5. The main criteria is to find a game with a fairly strong home team with a low u2.5 price. I sometimes take a risk and place the back bets while waiting for the u2.5 to drop to at least 1.80. I make sure that I pick a game that will reach 1.80 within 5 minutes of the start. It is a guaranteed winning strategy if the home team scores at any time.

I chose the Nottingham Forest v Leicester game as they both needed to push for the win. I layed u.5 6 minutes into the game and a few minutes later Homer was landed as Forest took the lead. With ten minutes to go and the scores at 1-1 I layed the current score to win an extra £15.

My other game was Sligo v Bohemians. I recommended this game in the Footbal Trading chatroom but I don't think anyone else traded this game. U2.5 was a staggering 1.46 pregame and absolutely perfect for the Homer. Sligo scored early in the first half and the job was done. Better still, the game ended 1-2. I layed 1-2 with 15 minutes to go but there were no more goals. I should really accept my win and not be greedy to try and make extra gains.

Generally I put at risk about £70 to win £30. I will look to increase the risk over the next few weeks.

Hearts v Motherwell looks great for Homer. U2.5 is currently 1.73 on Betfair. Hearts are out on their own in 3rd place and I am hoping for a typical relaxed end of season game where goals will easily arrive. After note: I have noticed that this is not in play.

Good luck to QPR as they take on Cardiff live on BBC1 later today. I never trade a QPR game but I am expecting goals in the is one.

There is plenty of racing today but I won't be trading them intensively. I will just dip in and out.

Thy Cup Runneth Over

2011-04-22T00:46:00.000+01:00

I couldn't resist that title after having more than a chuckle watching the Real Madrid player drop the Spanish Cup trophy from the top of an open top bus only for it to fall beneath the wheels. It must have been a smashing night!

I do like reading Peter Webbs Bet Angel blog and I have a lot of time for his opinions and thoughts but one of his recent posts really challenged me! It challenged me into thinking what the hell was he going on about. So much so that I had to read it three times over to make sure that I didn't miss anything. I am sure there was nothing to miss. His last sentence said "so that's what I aim to acheive in 2011'. Please can someone explain to me what it actually is that he wants to acheive because I seem to be incapable to grasp what he's trying to say. Perhaps my educational background leaves me lacking in understanding. Click here to see for yourself and then answers on a postcard.

Over the past four days I have profited by pennies under £100. That's just enough to push me back into the green. Football let me down as I traded the wrong side of the Tranmere v Notts.co. game. I could have settled for a loss of about £20 but did a couple of speculative gambles which didn't come off and ended up down by £58. I am making steady progress going in play on the horses and have even dabbled in the Australian version.

Happy Sunday

2011-04-18T07:30:00.008+01:00

A profitable weekend which leaves me just £63 down for the month but it could have been so much more. Saturdays steady progress was undone when I lost £88 on one race. I only have myself to blame as the only two losses over £10 were in races of 7f which I shouldn't have been trading in play. I was down pre-race and thought that I could make it up in play. I must keep to my own rules of never going in play under 1.5 miles. The IPL ensured I ended up in a green position.

Sunday was much better as I reached three figures for the first time in seven weeks. It started early in the morning when I was suprised to see Vettels very low price of 1.5 a few minutes before the start. I layed him for £100 and was very happy to see him struggle off the start. The price shot up to 4 but then settled to around 2.7 before I started to take the profits. In the middle of the race it was interesting to see his price fall to well under 2's when he was still in third place. I should have gone back into the market but I settled for my £46 and moved on.

I traded a handful of horse races and was dispappointed at my final result of £9 as I managed to lose £25 in the last race. It was a good day with the Football. I layed 0-0 with about 15 minutes to go. I secured the profit thanks to Arsenals late penalty and saw a good opportunity when Liverpool had their free kick just as time was almost up. The price for 1-1 was 13's and I thought that it was too high as the FK was in a very good position. It was surely worth putting a measly £2 on it even if it was almost the last kick. The FK didn't come off but naturally I was delighted to see a penalty awarded a few seconds later and that it was converted. To finish the day I successfully traded my signature strategy (I must think up a name for it). Laying a low priced U2.5 with correct scores of 1-0 1-1 2-0. As you can tell my stakes are generally small for Football and I need to have more scores go against me so I can work my way out of them with minimal loss before increasing them.

Lucklily I steered clear of the featured game at Trading Football which was Bolton V Stoke. Nobody could have predicted 0-3 after 30 minutes and while the service tried to get the best out of a bad situation, it is a reminder to everyone that whilst we enjoy the best fruits of success, these sort of games pop up now and then that no stats can predict. The real test is how you manage the position when it all goes against you and Bingo whilst accepting a loss was inevitable, led the troops to as minimal a loss as possible.

Huff & Puff

2011-04-16T09:07:00.003+01:00

£93 may seem a satisfactory result but when it has been acheived over the course of 11 hours and 48 races, £20 of which was a late night US race it is disappointing. At least I have made a significant reduction to the month's red but I would have been happier with an average of £4 per race. £200 would have been a good return for all that huff and puff.

I lost a little on the football but to be honest they have all been gambles rather than trades over the last few days. All I did yesterday was lay the current score late in the Norwich game. I need to get back into the routine of actually trading the games and what better way to start than with the Manchester Derby

There is plenty of other sport this weekend. World Snooker starts today and I will be dipping in and out of the frame market. Sunday there is the Chinese Grand Prix and the Marathon. IPL continues and it is interesting to see that out of the completed 13 matches, 10 have been won by the team chasing.

Red Alert

2011-04-15T10:17:00.002+01:00

Well, so much for the miracle at Tottenham!

The last couple of days have been a bit of a mixed bag. I am comfortable with my in play horse strategy for the races over 1.5 mile. What I am falling down on is that I try to dabble in the sprints which is just not the correct thing to do because it is a 'luck' thing rather than my clearly defined longer race strategy. I am off work today so I am going to do the marathon 50 races and just pre-race in the sprints and see where that take me.

My football exploits over the last couple of days have not been great. I thought that the LDU game would produce lots of goals seeing as it was a group qualfier decider that both needed to win. In the end I was thankful for the tiny profit across the markets because I fell asleep midway through the first half. Not a great strategy to take! Then there's the Tottenham game where my dreams of a nice grand was just that...a dream!

I did an SHS on the Braga game on 60 minutes. If I followed the strat correctly I should have been out before the end but I decided to let it run thinking that Kiev would go all out for the goal they needed leaving themselves exposed at the back but they never really pushed hard and the goal never came.

My P&L this month does not make good reading but I am an eternal optimist and I am determined to pull it back. As you can see from the monthly summary I need to make £17.49 per day for a green month.

Almost There

2011-04-13T13:24:00.005+01:00

A narrow win at Barnsley by Warnocks blue and White army means that we are eleven points clear of third place with 15 points to play for. Our vastly superior goal difference is worth an extra point so a win on Monday at home to Derby and we are back in the promised land.

It has been an unbelievable season. It has not always been the Taarabt show, the whole squad has worked very hard and played as a team. However the best signing has been Neil Warnock. His team selection, tactics, and man management skills cannot be faulted. I am sure that if the result goes our way on Monday it will be an emotional night!

I only hope that Blackpool can survive the drop so that we can be assured of some points and welcome the legend that is Holloway back to Loftus Road for a Premier Leage Game.

As for the trading. It was a total disaster. I did a combination of pre race and in play during the twilight meetings and I lost over £100 overall thanks to leaving a bet in the market. Same old same old! Why can I never leave a lay in, at least I would have more of a chance. The bet was on the favourite and of course the jockey gets wind that Handy has left a bet in so let's go slow to teach him a lesson! So that's about £250 down for the month. Happy days!

A friend of a friend knows someone who hears voices foretelling the future. I don't know if that is after he has had 10 pints and a bottle of Jack down the local but his advice is to lay the arse off Real Madrid to qualify coz it's deffo going to happen. I will be sticking a £10 liability on at 1.01 and if it comes off I will strip naked and dance around my webcam for all to see!

To Fix Or Not To Fix

2011-04-12T07:55:00.001+01:00

Having secured an all round profit inside 12 minutes of the Liverpool game, my attention was focussed on the Serie B game between Modena and Atalanta. The draw pre-match was 1.9 with 83% of the match odds on the draw. 0-0 started at about 4's with most of the money on 0-0 with hardly any cash on the other draws. This scenario has appeared in Serie B games over the last couple of weekends and the final result has been the anticipated draw.

Very early in the second half Atalanta scored but incredibly the draw price was still lower than the leading teams price. I thought along with a few of my Trading Football buddys that here was a nice easy earner and backed draw and sure enough with about ten minutes left Modena equalised. Naturally the draw crashed to the floor as if it was the last minute and I reduced my red a little on Atalanta but didn't green up fully as the game looked like (it was on Betfair Video) it was heading for the draw that everyone expected. However you just know that when Handy is involved in a game things are never as simple as they are supposed to be and in the last minute Atalanta scored. There was just enough time for Modena to hit then post but it ended 1-2 and I lost £18 and at the same time confirmed that just because a price is particularly low, it does not mean that the game will end that way. Next time I will steer clear. There's never a dull day in Handyland!

That gambling loss ate into my earlier trading profit which meant I ended the evening with a loss because I also had a bad session with the twilight and US horses.

Liverpool v Man.City Trade

2011-04-11T20:00:00.002+01:00

Under 2.5 at 1.76 is good enough for me to lay. I am complimenting this with correct scores 1-0 1-1 2-0 so if Liverpool score I win without any sub trades. If it's 0-0 after 30 minutes I will look to reduce red. If Man City score first then I have the lay of U2.5 and 1-1 to use to amend my position.

12 minutes work - Job done

A Mixed Day

2011-04-11T00:39:00.002+01:00

It was a very mixed day on Sunday but in the end a hard earned £70 which is greatfully received after a very poor start to the month.

When my Horse Racing session started I was already just over £100 down thanks to poor decisions in the Grand Prix and the early morning Spanish second division game between Xerex and Betis. Every horse race was traded entirely in play and I was more than satisfied with the end result. I then lost a little more in the football markets as I tried a BS on the Villa v Newcastle game. However, the evening ended with a nice profit on the Masters as I layed McIlroy as he stood on the 1st tee.

Opinion

2011-04-10T14:03:00.012+01:00

No matter how many temporary email addresses I set up and delete, the system and software emails keep on coming. I tend to take a little look to see if there really is something that can benefit me but 99% of the time it's just deleted. There were two unique products that landed in my inbox recently which caught my attention.

BetTornado for the iPad

The introduction of the BetTornado app couldn't have been timed better as I had just received my new iPad. It has been put together from Juicestorm with whom I used to follow in the days of their radio broadcasts. The application looks very smart and professional. It uses a verticle scrolling ladder w with various features neatly positioned. The hedge feature is a particular welcome addition.

It is a useful application to place bets/lays on the move but I wouldn't recommend using it on fast moving markets such as in play Horse Racing as scrolling the vertical ladder to catch up with the current price can be rather like trying to catch a fly. Also it is not immediately obvious when a market turns in play. It definately needs some kind of audio reminder. In any case, anyone with an iPad should judge for themselves as it's free.

Market Monitor

This puzzles me greatly. I think the software is dangerous to anyone trading the horses in play especially the newbies starting to trade in the dangerous in play markets yet all I ever come across are positive reviews. Am I the only one with an opposing view or is everyone on an affiliate commision?

The software gives a visual indication by way of a horizontal bar of the odds of each of the runners which is an interesting view if you are not actually watching the race but the major flaw which is absolutely fundamental is that you can only make a bet or lay with the current price. There is no way you can put an advanced trade. You don't have to be Einstein to know that the prices can be very volitile towards the end of a race so if you decide to lay a horse flashing up at 1.20, by the time you release your finger with that £50 lay, the price could have jumped to 3, 4 or even higher and you are left with a liability of £200 instead of £10 with the horse getting a second wind and winning the race. You are better off using the standard Betfair grid on their website because at least you can choose from three prices. It is interesting to see that the inplay examples only use £2 and in one example £2 is backed to win 8 pence

It is available to buy at a staggering £3 short of £300 and is not available on a monthly subscription. My response to that would be that if it was available monthly nobody would buy the second month! Why pay £297 when Geek is free!

I would be interested to know who are the 'small group of traders' that are using this software and also which in play product was selling at £2,000 recently? The software has been developed by Mark Baker who is the well respected man behind the excellent Laybot Pro which is why I am even more suprised at the finished version of MM. To be fair to him, he has put together many comprehensive videos (including samples of in play action which clearly shows the volatility) thus making it clear just what you are purchasing. I can also tell that he is passionate about his product which just adds to the craziness of it all. If MM can have added some kind of limiter where it won't place a lay over a user defined price then at least it will cover the major calamity of accidentally laying at a grossly inflated price in error.

I have put up two different links. One is here and the other is in the MM title. Like I said at the beginning, all I have seen is praise for this product so please let me know if it's just me or are there others with my same view. Is there anyone who has bought the product and happy wth it? Please let me know.

If you disagree with me then my two links will undoubtably mean lots of extra sales for MM which will all go to Paul as you will not be suprised to learn that I am not an affiliate.

ADDED - 17.10 Ludlow, perfect example of what could happen. Theatre Diva went down to under 1.10 then instantly shooting out to 3-4's (which could have been the actual price by the time the lay was clicked) before winning the race!

Anyway, I am trading the horses in play this afternoon using free software and will see whether I can get some profits out of the last round of the Masters this evening.

Remember Me!

2011-04-05T23:50:00.000+01:00

As most bloggers who have regular jobs will testify, it takes dedication to regularly publish posts and at the same time so easy to down tools and disappear into the abyss of blogging history. I didn't plan to stop posting, it just wasn't a priority and the longer you leave it, the harder it is to focus on restarting it.

It has been three months since my last post and during this time I have been receiving quite a few comments and emails. At first it was mainly negative abuse towards my selling pitch but more recently I have received comments and direct emails encouraging me to restart it.

With the evening racing nearly upon us giving me more trading opportunities, I have decided to make a determined effort to regularly post again. No talk of spreadsheets (note I have removed my last post about it). It will focus purely on my emotional highs and lows of that fantastic drug that is sports trading and my opinions on any relevant pieces of news that may crop up.

During these three months my Horse strategy has totally changed. I was fed up with the stresses and strains of the pre-race markets where I was making small profits only to make some kind of cock up such as going in play or accidentally leaving bets in the markets. Yes I was green at the end of each month but for all the emotional effort and turmoil it was just not enough. So I decided to meet my nemises head on and work on an inplay strategy throughout my available weekends. It's been an interesting time with some very hair-raising moments. I was hit big in one race where I had layed the third place horse who had just started to struggle when the front two fell but apart from that I have come through it relatively unscathed.

What is important whilst trading in play is to keep calm and remember your exit strategy at all times. I now know that the reason I lost far more than I won when I went inplay accidentally was because I was in blind panic with no structure of how I was going to get out of it.

You can appreciate that I don't want to reveal my way of trading other than to say it only applies to distances over 2 miles, preferably over hurdles or fences. I can clearly tell that there are a few traders using the same sort of strategy. It is not laying at very high odds but it does involve reasonably high prices of between 15 and 30 in particular scenarios with many backs and lays. I aim to profit each race with at least £7.50 which adds up to a considerable sum over the session. I still do a little pre race trading during the sprints but it is not so intense as before as I know that the inplay races are going to give me green.

My football trading is consistantly profitable and it really is thanks to the Trading Football community led my Bingo and Adster. I am not in their forums as much as I used to be but I make sure that I contribute at least twice a week and I always read their excellent daily emails which give early tips and strategies for their TOTD (Trade Of The Day).

I have recently developed my own strategy which involves finding a game where U2.5 is priced under 1.7. I lay that market and back 1-0 1-1 and 2-0 giving me a small profit on the CS but a lovely jubbly if there is a goal spree. If the home team score I win no matter what else happens. If it's 0-0 after 30 minutes I look to start reducing losses. I used to put a little bit on the 0-0 as insurance but now I more confident with exit strategies I now would rather take te risk and manage the reds. If the away team score first then U2.5 goes out and 1-1 comes in and there is enough potential profit sloshing around that I can minimise my risk but still give me profitable opportunities.You will be suprised how many of these low odds U2.5's end up as overs.

The strategy that really brings rewards is the SHS but more on that next time. I have been lucky enough to get hold of an iPad2 on it's launch day so I will also give my views on the newly released Bet Tornado app for the iPad and also how an already excellent iBetmate on iPhone is even better when it is magnified to fit the iPad.

I will update my stats in the top right section tomorrow.

More of the Same

2011-01-03T21:01:00.000Z

With an afternoon out with friends yesterday, I managed to fit in an 11.00 Spanish second division game and a handful of early horse races netting me £37.

However my honeymoon with the horses is over as I am back to work on Tuesday and today I have been down at Loftus Road to witness the absolute domination of a poor Bristol City only to draw the game 2-2. QPR had about 30 shots to Bristol City's 3. It would have been very profitable laying under 3.5 at half time with the score at 0-0. Unfortunately I can never get a 3g signal at the ground otherwise I would tinker here and there.

Two days through 2011 and I have surpassed my daily target of £33 on both. I only have to do it another 363 times!

Out with Old. In with the New

2011-01-02T21:50:00.006Z

After a rather disorganised last few weeks I was glad to get down to some good old fashioned trading. Having been given the week off between Christmas and New Year it gave me a marvellous opportunity to dip my toe back into the horses. With so much going on in the house I was always only going to do a few races here and there but it really was a thrill to get in amongst those ladders. Boxing Day saw my first horse trade since November 18th and I started at very small stakes until the confidence came flowing back.

I have traded the horses every day since and have been green each time. Nothing substantial because I traded limited races but a £161.06 profit over 7 days is better than not trading at all.

However, whilst I had green on the horses my football exploits on the 29th December left a lot to be desired. The game......Liverpool v Wolves. The drink.... whisky and coke. There were certainly more top ups than there were goals! Over 2.5 then Over 1.5 then lay Wolves after goal then a very large Bingo special. I was just on auto-pilot with no caution! The lesson is don't drink and trade. I might as well have gone to the cash machine, drawn out £150, tie the notes to a helium balloon and let it go!

On a positive note, my performance since I started the blog has been a steady profit but nowhere near my initial target of what I thought was an easy £33 per day. I should have reached £9,000 but I was well short with £3,845. In reality it is £14 per day. It doesn't sound very much and seems like I have wasted my time but it has amounted to £3,845 which is more than if I didn't bother at all. It just goes to show how difficult this game is and why most people lose over the long term which is why it is important that when you do win, you treat yourself with something to make it all real. If you recall I withdrew £1700 at the end of September and I recently spoilt myself and the family with a Sony 3D TV. It makes it all worthwhile.

One last thing. I have been experimenting over the last couple of days on backing £2 at 80's or higher when in play and hoping to catch a lttle profit if the price comes in. I backed Ashjazar at 80's but caught a price of 140's. Imagine my excitement when the price started to come down. I didn't think it could win and took a little at 24's then 15's for a profit of £29 but it went on to win the race so I would have collected nearly £300 had I hung on!

Until tomorrow.

Off and Running

2010-12-24T06:07:00.002Z

It was such a relief getting back in the swing of things (excuse the pun) last night. I didn't do much but at least it was a start.

I miss trading the horses but now that the days have started getting longer it won't be too long before I can enjoy Windsor each Monday evening.

Reinvigorated and Ready to Return

2010-12-23T07:15:00.004Z

There has been a couple of important personal issues over the past few weeks which has meant focusing less on trading, blogging and general online activity. My routine had been turned upside down and it has really been a case of putting on hold a part of my life that I have enjoyed so much over the past three years.

Things are getting back to normal and last night was the first time in quite a while that I started thinking about getting back into the trading habit. I read my blog from start to finish and was thankful that I had documented my trading life. It has reinvigorated me and reinforced my belief that although it is sometimes stressful, this is what I want to be doing and that the main objective is that the small financial benefits can be shared with my family. I was suprised to see many goodwill messages left for me and I thank everyone for taking the trouble to contact me. I know I have neglected many requests about the availability of the spreadsheet. I will get back to everyone who has contacted me about it. I am going to make it available as a software product rather than a spreadsheet but I still need to do some work on it over the festive season.

So even though Christmas is just upon us I will be blogging with my hapless exploits as regularly as I can. I will update my past few weeks thin results late this evening..

I am very happy to be back.

Out of Hibernation

2010-11-18T22:44:00.001Z

Wow! It's the 18th and my first post for the month. I have no excuses other than I have been focusing on work, family life and football trading.

So what has been happening in the trading world? Well for a start I attended the Football Trading seminar in Bedford last Saturday. It was a great event hosted by Bingo and Adster and a pleasure to put faces against many of the virtual community. There was a lot of useful information on offer as the day was conducted in more of a user workshop and discussion atmosphere. The highlight of the day was Bingo's comical mad panic as it suddenly dawned on him that the previous evening he had put a rather large opening bet on 2-2 in the Aston Villa v Man Utd game and that the game was at 2-2 with 5 minutes to go! He needed to green up before a 5th goal and the internet connection was very slow. He managed to trade out in time and picked up a tidy sum. Well done mate.

We all traded the 3pm matches with most of us opting for the Tottenham v Blackburn game. The strategy paid off with a nice £30ish profit. At the end of the day Bingo asked what each persons profit or loss was. The person who lost the most was suddenly announced as the winner of the Bet Angel Professional prize of a years software subscription which was generously donated by Peter Webb and his team.

If there is another event, I will attend for the social rather than the learning aspect. Trading Football truly is a great service, with great user camaraderie and run by two great guys.

My own trading exploits have been sporadic but I have managed to reach a profit of almost £250.

Finally, The Geeks Toy will continue to be free throughout 2011, which is great news as the new 1.1 version now includes advanced charting and market overviews.

There will be approx four weeks in the year where the software can only be accessed after a donation of £5 to Geeks nominated charity. This marvellous initiative starts this week with all proceeds going to the Children in Need appeal. Check out their forum as there are many fund raising activities on offer including the Plugathon where The Geek has pledged to donate £25 for every blog/website taking part.

The Geeks Toy, probably the best Betfair trading software in the World.

Good Weekend, Good Month

2010-10-31T23:59:00.100Z

It was a solid weekend reinforced by my consistent success in the Football markets.

On Friday I dabbled in the evening meeting without success but that was more than compensated by the nice result by half time from the Southport match.

Having returned from QPR on Saturday, I managed to catch the last few races at Wolverhampton and traded a couple of US races too.

Earlier today I capped a nice weekend with another decent profit.

October ends with a profit of £641 which is pretty good for me considering I traded on only 19 days. There was only one losing day on the football as Bingo and Adsters's strategies continue to do well for me.

With all these profit and loss figures that are constantly in my face it can be easy to forget that this is real money, so for the second consecutive month I have decided to make my months profit a reality by withdrawing so that my bank is now back to £2000.

Charts - Is The Geek now Toying with Bet Angel?

2010-10-28T23:59:00.529+01:00

When I add to my blog I normally just type away without any hesitation about what to say and how to say it but tonight I have been staring at a blank text box, trying to think of the best way to making a balanced view between two excellent pieces of trading software. Of course there are many other trading applications around but we all have our favourites don't we.

The Geeks Toy (GT) and Bet Angel (BA) have both recently taken their trading product to new levels with the emphasis on charting. They have both evolved very differently and originally got my attention for very different reasons.

My comments are purely from a personal perspective so I have added a bit of my history. to understand where I am coming from. I apologise in advance for the length of it.

I have always been looking at ways of making extra income. Like many people I started out trading shares the old paper way and then the whole process was made easier by trading online. However, there were always added costs making the margins tighter plus the need to sometimes take a long term view whereas I am an impatient person. I wanted a way of somehow making quick and easy money online and it wasn't long before I was arbing.

I was very organised and opened up at least 30 bookmaking accounts and although it was hard work, the thrill of creating a situation where I couldn't lose was fantastic. As the months rolled by there were more and more people jumping on the bandwagon and with the onset of services that emailed you with an arb opportunity, the whole situation got much harder. The bookmakers soon got wise as to what was going on and started restricting accounts where it was obvious that customers were arbing rather than just betting and I soon got fed up with hassle. By that time it was near impossible to find unique opportunities. There are many people that still succesfully arb out there but they must be very determined people with patience of a saint!

One of the accounts I was using for arbing was Betfair who were one of my very few unrestricted accounts. I had heard in the arbing circles about how money could be made backing and laying on their markets. There were a handful of services to aid this new way of making money and I tested many of them but Bet Angel stood high above the crowd. They had a top notch website which conveyed total professionalism, the product was sturdy and they had a clear roadmap and had the right attitude towards customer service. Whenever I would have a query, Peter would respond very quickly. The competitors couldn't even come close to the all round service that BA provided.

We all know that with any service maintaining your advantage is hard. Competitors wise up to what the consumer wants and offer similar services, sometimes at cheaper prices. Racing Traders were the new kid on the block but as the months and years rolled by BA just got better and better and in my opinion was always a step ahead in innovation and presentation. They weren't cheap but you got what you paid for.Their charting was worth the subscription on it's own. If you want to be consistent on horse trading then you need decent charts to help you predict when trends start and end.

They started doing trading courses and I attended one nearly four years ago having already been a customer for about a year. It cost about £400 and I thought long and heard about whether to go. I have to say that the decision to attend was the most important trading choice I ever made. It was an excellent and professionally organised day. The things I learnt on that one day are still vivid in my mind today.

I continued using BA and have never been unhappy with anything about them but for me fate took a turn. We moved house a two and a half of years ago from a town which had a broadband speed of 2mb to a village with 0.5mb. At first BA performed okay but as more and more functions were added and more villagers subscribed to broadband, it just got slower and slower. The first sacrifice I made was to change from API to Non API mode. There were a few things that I lost but the speed improved. However with BA's functionality continually improving I was suffering. The village increased the broadband speed to 1.5mb about 18 months ago which helped in the evenings but my main trading was at weekends and the response times were so bad that I just couldn't risk being caught with my pants down with large liabilities. Reading the forums there were many with Saturday/Sunday syndrome. 3pm on Saturday was the worst with the footie gamblers piling into their bets.

Last November, a member of one of the forums someone mentioned trying recently released free software called the Geeks Toy. They said it had no bells and whistles but it does the job and is fast throughout the weekend.

With GT being free I had nothing to lose by trying it out. It was ridiculously fast and I vividly remember my first time using it. The great thing about GT was that almost all of it was customisable and I soon got it to look as close to BA as I could. I did the stupid thing of using the same stakes as I had been doing on BA without getting used to the different way it performs. Having been used to BA for over four years I was still in BA mode and I lost about £200 clicking things by mistake.

So at this point GT had provided me with a quick product but I was trading blind as there was no charting to assist me so overall I was no better off. In addition to this I simply loved BA's unique Guardian facility where you can easily manage and monitor other markets at the same time. I decided to have both applications up at the same time making sure that the calls did not exceed the Betfair limit. At first I had Guardian and charts running at the same time GT but it got too complicated so I just left the BA charts up. The other problem I used to encounter was I had to reset the charts for every race.

By the time I started this blog, GT had evolved with a few 'luxury' features including fill and kill and tick offset. Their features were still well behind the competition but it started to feel like a more professional application. For me, the decision to switch from BA to GT was a necessity rather than the product being offered for free but for the vast majority the contributing factor of GTs huge success is that it costs nothing while providing an excellent and reliable product.

Up to last week GT had a massive achilles heel. No charting. This has now been addressed with the launch of 1.1 Beta. Cran has done a great comprehensive review which I cannot better so please take a look and judge for yourself. The Drifter has also put up a video on You Tube showing his simple setup but you can make it as complex as you like. It is not just the fact the GT has charting, it's totally customisable and the layout can be saved so you don't have to keep resetting it for every race. BA released a new update which amongst other things includes the saving of charts, however releasing it just after GT had just released theirs had put BA slightly on the back foot.

For me the charting has lifted GT into a very serious player in the sports trading software market and remember there is just one person maintaining it. The one feature which would allow me to trade from one vendor has arrived. I have had 1.1 for a little while and have spent time configuring it but the evening meeting at Wolverhampton was the first time I have really put it to the test and I am a very happy camper. The ladder seemed to be running faster than it has ever been.

With or without Stop Loss (which I have been informed is not too far away) I now cannot imagine how I would cope without GT.

Both BA and GT are super products and have their own postives but the GT's massive plus is that it's free, other positives are that it is fast for me on weekends and fully customisable and simple to use. BA's plus is the unique Guardian, excel botting, a Tennis and Football module. If you want to know more just click on Geeks banner above the blog list and BA's banner at the end of the blog list. For some reason BA's banner makes my page mess up if I put it above the blog list.

As the old saying goes, you pays your money, you takes your choice. I will continue to subscribe to Bet Angel so I can play around with it's excel capabilities but my trading choice is firmly with Geeks Toy whether it stays free or not. What's your choice?

The evening racing went well and GT 1.1 helped me reach almost £80

Getting Back Into The Groove

2010-10-27T07:25:00.006+01:00

Trading has been very limited over the past week or so. Business commitments in France between the 19th and the 21st meant no trading in the evenings due to the french gambling restrictions. It makes the evenings very boring. I even had to make do with watching the boring French or German Champions League games rather than being able to watch the exciting Tottenham match with Inter. I was feeling very groggy before I travelled but by the time I returned on Thursday evening I was really layed low (no pun intended) and not had the motivation to do much until Monday night. Looking at the chart above I traded on 4 of a possible 14 days but the positive is that the last red day was on the 9th October.

I am about 75% of the way back to recovery and have got the trading 'buzz' back. I have had a tinker with the footie over the past couple of days and I am slowly getting back into the groove. There has been no trading on the horse front for a while but with limited opportunity during the week it was always going to be reduced.

As you can see from my monthly chart below my footie trading has made over £700 since I started subscribing to the Trading Football service. I am further enhancing my knowledge by signing up to the seminar that the Nugget Crew have organised in the next couple of weeks. If anyone wants more details on this just let me know.

Obviously I have had not had the opportunity to put the finishing touches to my football spreadsheet but will try to complete this over the next weekend. I still have a backlog of the main spreadsheet to email out too.

I will now put some extra effort in ensuring that I post at least once a day.

Back Soon

2010-10-24T23:59:00.002+01:00

I am really sorry for the lack of a post for over a week. I have been on business in Paris where there is no access to Betfair and have been very poorly with a chest infection since I returned. I will make a more detailed entry tomorrow.

Where's Wally?

2010-10-16T08:44:00.001+01:00

Right here!

After four days without a single back or lay, I returned to the lions den trading the two evening meetings netting me a profit of almost £40.

This was all undone thanks once again to falling asleep on the sofa. I decided to get involved with the San Lorenzo v Tigre match which kicked off at the rather odd time of 11.10pm. Everything pointed towards a low scoring game but I decided to go against the grain and further practice my EGG skills.

What a start! SL score within the first five minutes and even if it remains 1-0 after 15 minutes then the rest of my strategy would ensure a half decent profit. Marvellous I thought, except falling asleep was not supposed to be part of the strategy. I woke up with about 5 minutes to go and the score at 2-0 so I was staring at a rather large potential red result. There was hardly anything I could do to salvage the situation other than hope for a goal. I took the opportunity of a Bingo Special to further boost my profit if a goal was scored with minimal risk. There were two golden opportunities for both sides to grab a goal in the added time but it was not to be and the end result was a loss of £60.

I was not happy to leave it there and decided to do a handful of US races which enabled me to get back £22. I won't be doing any trading until this evening as I will be travelling to London to watch the Hoops give the Canaries a lesson in football so as it stands I am £38 down for today and have this evening to turn it round.

Yet again I give sound advice of not trading when tired but don't practice what I preach. Anyway it is the sofa's fault as it shouldn't be so comfortable!

Not EGGstatic

2010-10-14T07:48:00.005+01:00

A combination of work and family commitments has meant that the trading game has had to take a back seat this week. After what was a good start to the month, the inevitable sticky patch and careless moments has dragged me back towards my more usual average.

To bring me up to date, Thursdays evening UK and US racing continued on from the bad session the day before. I was still feeling rough yet I decided to trade so there was no suprise the I ended the night £49 lighter.

Friday saw the first batch of international matches and after much effort on two games I finished with a green of £7.63. I utilised my own EGG strategy on the Wales v Bulgaria game which didn't produce any goals by the 15th minute. I didn't mind this as it gave me an opportunity to practice the next phase of reducing my liability on the 2.5 goals markets and entering the correct score market. In the end I took a very small loss. I also made a small green on Ireland v Russia tinkering about but if I had used EGG then it would have been a far bigger win.

I did a full afternoon and evenings horse trading on Saturday and was only £25 up for all my efforts. I joined the boys for the evenings France v Romania game which resulted in a scratch of 86 pence profit. I used EGG which on balance was pretty stupid but again I came out with no harm done. However the aim is to have some kind of profit more often than not if no goals are scored in the first 15 minutes and I am not there yet. If I can get this strat right I will provide the details.

I was so engrossed in the chat room, my lack of multi tasking skills came to the fore as I put two opening trade bets of £50 at 3.25 and 3.30 on Bushwhacker at the 20.40 Wolverhampton and then went back into chat and completely forgot about them. I had the sound off as the family were watching X Factor so not even the Simpsons (If you have GT you know what I am talking about) could save me. What was so heartbreaking was the horse went as low as 1.15 so the £200 bonus was within my grasp. Had I greened up at 1.15 it would have guaranteed me £175.

Do I ever learn? No!

I got some of the losses back on Sunday when I made £53. I have not traded since.

Looking at my daily performance you can see how successful my football trading has become since I became a crew member on 6th September. Previously I had just been going around in circles.

I have spent the last week or so designing a trading spreadsheet specifically for Football and particularly the FT service. I have been trying to make it maintenance free before compiling it into a program so it looks as professional as my tiny brain can manage and then making it available to purchase at a token price to cover the compiler program costs. It is similar to my general spreadsheet but more automated and has a 'diary' where you can record your traded games with comments. The tabs interact with each other so data entry is minimal.

Four of the tabs are shown below with sample data.

Finally, Adam Heathcote has made a rare entry to his blog. It's nice to see the guy well watered and still hanging around the trading scene so he can pay for his food and rent. That should take him all of 5 minutes per month! However I don't understand why he would start a new venture when he was raking in £300,000 per year trading unless of course he never made £300,000 in the first place!

Doesn't Time Fly When Over 40

2010-10-13T17:29:00.001+01:00

Another six days go by and I wonder where the time goes! I have been in and out of the markets the last few days which includes one of my whoppers. A month never goes by without a Handy Andy Whopper. Leaving (well forgetting actually) a £100 bet in play and the horse goes down to 1.15 before losing!

More later.

Mr Geek - A Mixed Message

2010-10-07T07:00:00.009+01:00

I have been feeling rough over the last three days, so after the late football on Sunday which settled just after midnight I kept away from any trading until I caught some of last evenings Kempton racing. You really need to be 100% well and fully focused to trade the horses and I was very sluggish and wasn't in the zone. I only traded five races and managed to lose £67.06. It was straight forward pre-race trading with nothing going in play so at least I didn't lose my cool over the disappointment.

However, I made it up on the football thanks to a few minutes of the Mickey Mouse cup between Sheffield Wednesday and Chesterfield. I thought there would be early goals and used a strategy which I tested out in the Boca v Lanos game on Sunday night and paper traded two games on Tuesday.

It is called the EGG strategy with stands for Early Goals Gamble. You place a bet on over 2.5 goals and the key is whether goals are scored by the 15th minute. After this time if one or no goals are scored you then trade the correct score looking to reduce the immediate liability. I will share it with the Nugget Crew members once I am comfortable that the strategy consistently works but for now it's in test mode. It is not rocket science as the first 15 minutes instruction is to do nothing. The hard work on the CS starts in the 16th minute when the score is 0-0 but if one goal is scored during the 15th minute there is some ammunition to work with. Last nights game was 1-1 after a quarter of the first half and I just locked in the profit and there ended my football session. Obviously I was very pleased but the core of the strategy is what happens when it's 0-0. We all know that 0-0 is a football traders nightmare so I need to see more of the 0-0 after 15 minutes before I share the strategy. Naturally game selection is critical with a reasonable price for the overs essential but it is safe to say that EGG is strictly not recommended for Italian, French and Portuguese games.

I have a backlog of spreadsheets to email out so if you have been waiting for a week or so I will get to your request over the next couple of days. I was asked by a fellow nugetteer to produce a spreadsheet solely on football. I have produced it largely based on my overall trading spreadsheet but is split by strategy types so that it gives an instant overview of which strats are working and which do not yield the profits. I have added a mini diary tab so that records can be kept on what you actually did during each game. It's nothing fancy but if football trading is your main sport then it works! I am just waiting for feedback before making it generally available.

I logged into GT yesterday and was presented with a mixed message from Mr. Geek!. I hope he doesn't mind me putting up a link to his forum post but I am not sure of the message he is trying to convey so I will let you make your own mind up. Is it that he is just not posting on his forum? Or is he stopping the advancement of his product? It was only a few days ago that he announced that the charting was in test and once that was issued he would concentrate on the stop loss facility. I am getting a mixed message! If anyone can add some clarity to the situation it would be appreciated.

If he is walking away, whilst I personally would be disappointed, no user should have cause for complaint for the free software that he has provided over the past year. My personal message to Mr Geek is that it is a shame if such a great product with a large and supportive customer base is not developed further. We have all had a very long and successful free trial and it's time that you, Mr Geek, made some money out if it and started charging us!

Strong Start Continues

2010-10-04T07:30:00.003+01:00

I did a full session of Sunday racing which resulted in a total waste of four hours as I collected the grand sum of £1.44 over 33 races. Perhaps my mind wasn't totally focused on the job as I was flicking over between the Chelsea game and the Ryder Cup.

Then in the evening was the football. Now I have to be careful what I say here because I do not want to upset anyone that thinks I am plugging you know what too much. So all I will say is that action speaks louder than words as you will see below.

I also had a small win of £13 that carried over to the early hours.

Black Sunday is long forgotten.

Another Green Day

2010-10-03T19:40:00.000+01:00

Just a quick post to say that my football trading continues to be a success along with decent Horse racing profits based on only a handful of races. I spent a large part of Saturday afternoon watching a live QPR stream.

Six Month Ramblings

2010-10-02T19:46:00.002+01:00

When I started this blog six months ago I had planned to acheive a consistent profit of £1,000 per month netting me £9,000 by the end of the year. I have used the phrase 'easier said than done' on a few occasions recently and nothing is more apt than in this case. £33 per day sounds an easy target but the losses soon drag me down and I'm left playing catch up.

Now let's look at the reality. The most important fact is that I am green, that's always a good start. There have been 184 days since the start of the blog of which 141 days were traded. 96 green and 45 red.

11 of the 45 red days were losses of over £100 (24%) whilst I only acheived profits of over £100 on 21of the 96 (22%).

As you can see from my Analysis tab, my daily average is just over £15 and at this rate I will reach £9,000 on the 17th November 2011 rather than the end of this year. To reach my original target I am going to have to make at least £68 every day.

Looking at the shorter term view my performance since the 4th September could have been exceptional had I not succumbed to the frustrations of an IT glitch on black Sunday! The Nugget Crew over at Trading Football have certainly helped me acheive my best football month by far with a healthy profit of £365. The £25 monthly membship and a further £80 on the videos was cash well spent.

I have made no secret that the big loss last Sunday hit me hard and I have been quite low for most of last week and was not interested in any trading or contributing to the footie chat. So on Thursday night I made a conscious effort to cheer myself up and turn things into a positive by deciding to turn some of my overall green into reality by withdrawing for the first time since the introduction of the blog. £15 a day may not seem much but looking forward to doing something with £1747.41 is a different matter. After withdrawing I was left with a bank of exactly £2,000. It make's everything worthwhile and I am now full of beans and ready for the October challenge which incidentally got off to a modest start.

Keeping records is a must for any trader but blogging adds that little extra to help you recall the bigger moments of the past. It was upon looking at my bar chart that I noticed the big loss of over £350 in June. I couldn't remember exactly what happened but a few seconds later I was able to click on the post and it all came flooding back. It was a replica of last Sunday and £550 that could have been best served in my pocket rather than the drain.

The number of daily visitors to my page have always been more than I ever imagined but has particularly grown over the last couple of months. I honestly never thought that a diary of my journey would be so interesting to others. It was never meant to be anything other than a personal diary to aid my discipline. That objective is still questionable but if any of my ramblings has helped people make various decisions in their trading/gambling life then I hope I have helped to make the correct one's for them.

I would like to mention the spreadsheet. With more new hits to my site, the more requests I have been getting for it. The first time I made it available was June and the continued interest over the months has meant that I have been spending time re-adjusting the layout and formulas to bring it up to date in addition to various bespoke requests. The past month has had considerable interest and taking up quite a lot of my time so it is only fair that I charge a small fee for my time. Therefore new requests for my spreadsheet with a start date different to the 1st October will be charged £5. The last version will always be available for free and anyone with reasonable Excel experience should be able bring them up to date. I have some outstanding requests which I hope to complete by the end of the weekend.

I have done some horse trading in between watching an excellent quality stream of the Crystal Palace V QPR match and will report my results in the morning.

Off to the Nugget room!

My Sports Trading Journey

Lays for Saturday 28/1

Friday 27/1 Results

Lays for Friday 27/1

Thursday 26/1 Results

Lays for Thursday

No Place to Hide

Trading Update

Turkey is not just for Christmas

December Update

Boxing Clever

Round in Circles

Another Green Day

A Clear Mind and my Daily Challenge

A Weekend To Forget!

A Geeks Toy supports Children in Need

Can't Wait Until the Weekend

Colombia v Argentina. The Perfect HomerDog

Brown Pants Factor

No Spin With Me!

Homer Strategies Now Available & Competition

Tomorrow

Out of the Blocks in November

Homer Kicks off Wednesday

The 0-2. What to do!

One Game Weekend

Homer Results Spreadsheet Video

Single Stakes HomerActive

Homer News

The Biggest Win on Sunday

Risk & Reward

Frustration

Weekend Roundup

Brief Entry

Walking the Dog

The Weekends Thoughts

Bad Luck or Fate?

The Fine Line

September Summary

Update Since Last Friday

Back to Reality

Woof!

100 Not Out

Septembers First Loss in Thirteen

The Run Continues But Is Now On Hold

Lo to Hi in Shamrock

Quickie

A Geeks Toy Pro - Well Done

Excellent Weekend

0-2 and what to do.

A Hard Slog for £50

Horse Day

Saturday Disappointment

SATURDAY 27/8 traded 2 gamesSATURDAY 20/8 traded 2 gamesSATURDAY 30/7 traded 2 gamesSATURDAY 18/6 traded 3 gamesThursday 16/6 traded 2 gamesPerhaps I should choose Saturdays as a day off!

An Excellent Evening

Udinese v Arsenal

Late Night Profit

Just going to tidy up the video I did last week and pass it to the Nugget Crew for their approval so hopefully it will be available to TF members by the weekend.

Just reviewing my August results.

More Results

Splashing the Cash

3 Wins from 3 Picks and a Rant!

I Have Had Better Days

Homer EPL 20/8 Picks and Opinions

Four from Four Homers

Homer sweet Homer

MarketMatcher -A MUST tool for all Football Traders

The Family of Homer Strategies

8.20 Hamilton - A Real Mystery

What will happen to the elite?

Us occasional bloggers are not all losing money!

Making Progress

Homing In On Profit

Who Needs The Horses

Thy Cup Runneth Over

Happy Sunday

Huff & Puff

Red Alert

Almost There

To Fix Or Not To Fix

SATURDAY 27/8 traded 2 games
SATURDAY 20/8 traded 2 games
SATURDAY 30/7 traded 2 games
SATURDAY 18/6 traded 3 games
Thursday 16/6 traded 2 games

Perhaps I should choose Saturdays as a day off!