One Game Weekend

A combination of family arrangements, Homer admin duties and a poor match selection meant I only traded one game on the weekend which was the HomerDog Wigan v Fulham. It was an unfortunate loser and the first Dog loser in ten Dog trades.

Whilst the result was frustratingly expensive and disappointing the most important fact was that I knew that the pick was right and offered great value. Opinion is what trading is all about. It is not about selecting a game just because the prices fit. As long as you are selecting a game for the right reasons and can justify it to yourself then that is all that counts.

As you can see below the game was dominated by Wigan with 68% ball possesion. 16 goal attempts with 9 on target compared to Fulhams 6 attempts with just 4 on target. It really was a smash and grab performance by the Londoners!  I managed to stay in until about 65 minutes as the market was strongly suggesting an equaliser rather than 0-2. In the end Fulham added another but the third scratch goal never came. ROI 32.46%.

I liked the look of Sunday's Osasuna game but had so much on that I simply didn't have time. That would have been a winner. The least said about QPR the better!

The response to the offer of the strategies and service has been nothing short of overwhelming. I asked for registrations first so that I could be sure to have enough numbers to make it worthwhile and there is no problem on that score! Thank you all very much for your interest. Now the hard work begins as I spend the next couple of weeks organising myself so that I can deliver a quality service. I will send out details of what the service will bring and will only look to collect the fees when I am fully ready to go. I am passionate and determined about this project and I am sure we can all work together to make it a resounding success.

Homer Results Spreadsheet Video

Below is the Homer Results video walthrough. This comprehensive analysis lists and splits results data by family strategy and league. It is supplied free when purchasing the strategies or joining the daily service. The video is best viewed at full screen.

 

Single Stakes HomerActive

I entered the markets for Bray v Dundalk on 31 minutes. The goal came in the 50th minute. The liability was £50. the profit £28.69 for an ROI 57.38%.

Homer News

Bringing my exploits up to date, on Tuesday whilst most sane people were trading the Arsenal cup game I traded a very different Arsenal team. Arsenal FC V San Lorenzo in an Argentinian league match. I was drawn to it as the prices were very good. It kicked off a little earlier than the UK games so I was wary of the chance of poor liquidity which meant it was only using single stakes which for me I class as a fun trade. As it happened the markets were reasonably okay but whilst there was excitement and positivity in the TF chat room as the UK games were reaping profits, my little trade went down the pan!  The home goal came in the 75th minute which was far too late.  There is not much you can do when a game plods on well into the second half with no goals. The more you scalp of the 0-0 pre-game the longer you can progress but going too deep into the second half will see unders close to 1.01 with that full liability realised you will also be putting at risk the scenario of an away goal which would put you in serious trouble as 0-1 is not covered and the later the away goal the lesser the impact on the unders price. That home goal on 75 minutes was far too late and the only benefactors would have been the non-disciplined gamblers who whilst breathing a big sigh of relief this time will only find their bank empty over the medium term. ROI -39.00%.

On Wednesday I traded the HomerDog Stoke v Liverpool. I felt that with Stoke's home record plus teams that will not be the same come the weekend that it was worth a go. I was heading to my first strat loss since I had secured the trading parameters to start recording the results and was saved thanks to a first half added time goal. Liverpool then brought the big guns on in the second half, took control and won the game ROI 36.79%.

Yesterday I lead the Homer of Espanyol v Real Betis in the chat room and unfortunately the game played out the same way as on Tuesday. 1-0 towards the end of the game and ROI -37.49%. So two consecutive Homer defeats with a happy Dog in between.

I quickly got my money back as I jumped on a greyhound tip made in the chat room and pencilled in a possible HomerActive Ath Bilbao v Ath Madrid. Liquidity wasn't great but it was just about okay to safely trade. The idea is to enter the market on 20 to 25 minutes whilst the score is still 0-0. The 1-0 was about 7.4 on 20 minutes which is about right and then it suddenly jumped up to 8.4 with a fair value available. I immediately took that price and a few seconds after I was matched it dropped down to 6.8. Well that set me up for a well above average profit if the home goal arrived and it finished unders. Bilbao scored around the 70th minute which was about 5 minutes before I was due to exit. I then had the opportunity to lay some of that lovely 1-0 to boost the unders profit but to be honest the game was poor up to that point and I didn't think there were two more goals left in the game. How wrong I was as it ended 3-0 and the standard overs profit. ROI 35.40%.

So a mixed few days which leaves the months profit if at single stakes £109.98. I only trade at single stakes when liquidity is low.

You may have noticed that I have added a banner to the left where you can register your interest in purchasing the Homer. I am not putting up any flashy 'squeeze' page or telling you how wonderful my system is. I see them all the time and I just find them patronising. Hurry as there are only 3 left and the price is going up tomorrow sort of thing. I have said before that the Nugget Crew over at TF introduced me into how to make a decent attempt and trading football. They helped me to think for myself which is how I got into devising my own original idea. It wasn't an overnight production, it evolved over time until I was happy to introduce it to the TF members as a genuine thank you. The single Homer strategy is also available at BSN due to the close association with TF. 

However, the important price criteria did not produce enough picks to trade many games on a daily basis so I was developing other Homer based strats to compliment and it wasn't easy to find the right balance.  I have spent so much time with testing, generating the facebook group, being in the chat room for most days, chatting on facebook, generally being available to answer any queries and keeping up with this blog that I feel that it's time to reward myself for the time I have been helping and sharing with others. The Homer interest has grown into something that I could never have imagined and I have to take a step back and think of what is right for me.

What I plan to do is to introduce a service to have two options. The first is to make available the Homer, HomerDog and HomerActive as a comprehensive PDF document with free lifetime access to any other Homer family strategy that I make available for example the HomerActiveDog which I am working on and will be available to offer support. I will also be supplying the Homer results spreadsheet which will have all the formulas set up and very easy to maintain for those who are not familiar with Excel. It will be an unprotected spreadsheet unlike my ResultMaster product which is fully protected from copying etc. I plan to make this available for a one off £29.99.

The other option is to enhance what I have been doing on facebook for the TF members and that is to send daily emails which will give details of the upcoming games which one's I am monitoring and why. What games I am going to avoid and why.  The all important staking. I will provide a four day rolling position on the upcoming games. Naturally a four day lead time will be used as a guide only so that subscribers can plan well ahead and know what I am thinking. I will also discuss the development of any other strats that I am looking at and make videos available to support the strats.

This is a big commitment from me and one that I assure I will not be taking for granted. If I am going to have paying subscribers I am going to ensure that the information is delivered accurately and timely and that you are getting value for money. There will be no more last minute instructions for games that I trade for the Homer and HomerDog. This will be true for most of the HomerActives but there are occasions when a game does not start as anything near Active potential and then develops into one as the game progresses. I will fire emails out to all subscribers when that happens so there will be times where there will be a last minute panic. I will also be supplying the Homer results spreadsheet.  If anyone is interested in this offer I plan to make the PDF strats available for £19.99 with a modest monthly subscription of £9.99.

I will discuss the possibility of adding the HomerDog and HomerActive to MarketMatcher (BSN)  but only the Homer strat will be available there as it is now. I strongly recommend that you subscribe to BSN for a one off payment of £39.99. The banner is on the right.  I will continue to support the excellent TF and play an active part of their community as usual.

We all see across the Betfair forum the mention that if a system is any good it won't be shared as you lose your edge. Not necessarily. The three strats will not be affected when trading the premium leagues as there is enough cash to go round. HomerActive is only advised to be used for the premium european leagues. For the secondary leagues Homer and HomerDog will be fine.

This strategies are not a guarantee of future profit but my results has shown that the strike rate has been consistent.

At this stage please register your interest on the left so that I can gauge the numbers. Obviously if there is not much interest then I won't proceed with the monthly subscription. Having said that I put the banner up an hour ago without this post and I am already getting  response. If I do proceed I will make a formal list of the subscription benefits before making it available for purchase. I expect to launch after I have tied up a couple of things in the next couple of weeks.

The Biggest Win on Sunday

The fourth consecutive profit came on Saturday afternoon thanks to Aston Villa v West Brom. ROI 30.24%. This was followed by a scratch in Fulham v Everton as the early away goal meant a quick end to the trade. ROI -5.64%. October is now coming together as the last 14 games have produced just 3 losses. The profit at just single stakes is exactly £136.

The complete Homer family strategies and detailed picks will be available here. Details will follow in the next few days.

However, the Sunday belonged to Queens Park Rangers and the magnificent display against their bitter rivals. The atmosphere was tremendous and the victory was very sweet!

Risk & Reward

Three wins in a row and October is looking much healthier.

Thursday saw Tottenham v Rubin Kazan. I don't trade Europa group games as these are often dour affairs with teams full of second string squad players but I had a play around on the PMT tool which is something I should be using more considering I am paying monthly for it. I managed to gain free green on the under 2.5, 1-0 & 1-1 so it didn't cost me that much more to add to the CS backs. That wonderful free kick ensured an ROI of 41.34%.

On Friday I continued my testing of the HomerDog on St.Patricks v Derry. The home team sat one place behind Derry but the prices suggested that the away team was by far the strongest. I opposed this view and was rewarded by the home goal on thirty minutes. Things got even better when Derry equalised which was the highest green. I laid some of the 1-1 off towards the end so the overs could be bumped up in case of another goal. That was an ROI of 48.06%. The HomerDog is now at 7 wins and 1 scratch since I have been confident enough to start recording the results. I have of course tested it far more over the past few months. I will make the strategy and parameters available very soon along with the HomerActive.

Late last night I noticed a nicely priced Homer opportunity for a 6am game of Yokohama v Urawa. It was 4th against 16th in a league with eighteen teams. Liquidity was very low and I took that as the reason for such pricing. However I put my alarm on for 5.30am to review the prices and was pleasantly surprised to see the prices retained at much higher liquidity. It was one of those really strong opportunities that doesn't appear that often and I committed to the trade. The home goal arrived on four minutes and I was able to end the trade from the insurance at an ROI of 36.84%. In monetary terms at single stakes the liability was £30 and the profit was £11. As it happened the game finished 1-2 so perhaps there was a reasonable explanation to the generous home pricing.

The average single stakes across the entire Homer family is £54.52. If I only include games where the lay was matched the average is £57.84. When I state the return on investment it is based on the initial liability as that is what is committed from the bank but of course in real terms the strategy is risking just £23 with a profit of anywhere between £18 (78%) and £30 (130%). 

This is why when the prices are in the zone this strategy is a no brainer. It is also a very safe trade for those that want to know where they stand before they make the commitment to risk their bank. In very simple terms at single stakes you either win £23ish or lose £23ish. At four times stakes it's almost £100 either way. So as long as the discipline to exit is set in stone the strategy only needs a no loss strike rat of 50.01% to be profitable. The strike rate is currently 73.60%.

As far as discipline is concerned why continue past the max loss exit point and put more and more of your liability at risk against the same amount of profit you would have had the chance of winning from the start. At 90 minutes with the score 0-0 you risk losing up to nearly three times more and would win less than average as a 1-0 goal at the very end will not leave any value in topping up it up as the 1-0 has the lowest green. 

Frustration

On Tuesday I picked Millwall v Brighton for the standard Homer and was disappointed that such a lively game was deadlocked at 0-0 by the time I had exited. On watching the highlights I was astonished to see a miss by Millwall from three yards out and with the goal gaping. You just can't trust players to do their jobs these days. I almost escaped with a scratch but the third goal never came. That player should be paying me compensation for my loss! ROI -36.92%.

Even more frustrating was the HomerActive potential in the game Southampton v West Ham. It was 0-0 after 20 minutes and the prices were excellent, especially the 1-0. I started working out my backs when the match suspended. I thought to myself that it was very unlucky to have just missed out on a good opportunity due to a goal but the game was not suspended because of the goal. It remained suspended for fifteen minutes by which time the key prices has passed and the CS liquidity was poor from then until the end of the game. Southampton scored just before half time which would have given me an above average profit so you can imagine I was not best pleased.

On Wednesday I traded a HomerDog for the game Olympiakos v Dortmond. I don't usually trade CL group games but Olympiakos were bottom and had to really go for it and I was hoping they could nick that home goal during the first half. My assumption was right but they scored too early for the trade to be fully launched and I was paid up from the insurance. ROI was 48.76% but that was high because the lay had not been fired. At single stakes the liability was just £30 and the win was just under £15.

I had also thought that Leverkusen v Valencia was a good shout too and that would have been a full HomerDog profit but I was only ever going to trade one match at a time under test.

The final Homer trade of the evening was an Active on Marseille v Arsenal. The first half was very lively so I jumped into the trade on 25 minutes and was unlucky not see goals before half time. However the second half was another story as the game disintegrate into a boring scrappy affair and the loss was then easy to determine. ROI -47.03%. Thankfully I managed to pull back the loss with a lay of the current score as the game entered added time. I always do this when I am facing a loss as it is very cheap and last minute goals are more frequent than you would think.

I have now recorded 16 Homers this month of which 8 have been winners, 2 have been scratched and 6 losers. Not as good as September but it can't always be rosy as we cannot stick the ball in the net so have to rely on overpaid professionals doing their jobs properly. For me the most important aspect is that I have been happy with my picks and that the family of strategies continue to show a positive trend over the longer term. The month is still in profit although £32.93 is nothing to shout about.

Now that we are approaching the end of the year I am going to add year 2013 to the ResultMaster spreadsheet and send the new version as a free update to all purchasers with clear instructions, perhaps even a video, on how to migrate the existing data over to the new spreadsheet.

Weekend Roundup

Dogs and Actives were put to one side as three standard Homers were traded producing one of each of the possible results. Saturdays EPL trade of Stoke v Fulham finished 2-0 but the opening goal came too late. The escape of the third goal never materialized and a loss of -36.92% was the result. 

Sunday's Rome derby of  Lazio v Roma was the next trade. This was an evening match which followed the afternoons main Serie A fixtures that produced seven from eight 0-0's. The eighth game was 0-2 therefore not one home goal was scored before the big game in Rome. Roma took the lead on five minutes so the trade was immediately over with a scratch which produced an ROI of 6.55%.

The final trade was the early morning match Lanus v Velez which had a tempting unders price of 1.65. Argentinian games have always been the most successful for me and thankfully this continued. Lanus took the lead on 35 minutes then Velez equalised just before half time. It remained 1-1 which had the largest green and on 80 minutes I Iayed some off to bump up the overs which turned out to be the right move when Velez scored a late winner. This was an above average ROI of 41.89%.

October 2011 Results

My weekend Homer P&L was quite a bit down as my Stoke stakes were much higher than the others but overall the weekend was profitable with an opening lay of Jenson Button in the Korean Grand Prix. I didn't have to do much after the start to secure the profit. I had a successful CS Jobby (TF members will understand) on Newcastle v Tottenham. I also put in a speculative lay of Webb Simpson half way through his round at the PGA golf. He was one stroke off the lead at the time but his price was lower than the leader so I took that as value. My thoughts were that Thompson would go on to win but in the end he dropped out and it was Crane who came from absolutely nowhere to win in a playoff with Simpson. Crane stood at the 8th tee eight shots behind the leader with a Betfair price in excess of 200 and birdied eight of the next ten holes.

 

I have refereed Sunday league football on and off for the past twenty years so I was disturbed to hear about a serious incident at Saturdays non league game Chesham United v Redditch United in the Evo-Stik Southern Premier league. These incidents are extremely rare but does not help the general situation of the lack of referees at local level.

Brief Entry

I recorded the third profit in a row on Thursday. It was a HomerActive just for single stakes on Malmo v Hacken. Four of us traded it whilst in the TF chat room. We started the trades on 24 minutes and the important home goal arrived in the 60th minute. The ROI was 37.41%.

Walking the Dog

I have now updated the spreadsheet so that the results are split between each strategy. This is particularly important with the Homer proven and others in test. I have added the HomerActiveDog although I don't plan to do anything with it for a little while.

My current focus is on the HDog and Mondays trade of Oldham v MK Dons went perfectly. I have been waiting for the scenario of a late goal to assess the following price movements. It is definitely worth trading out at 1-0 which is not the case for a Homer.  The ROI was a generous 51.59%. In monetary terms I had £60 of liability with an exit loss of £23 and profited with just under £32.

The 0-1 in a HDog trade will cause more problems than a Homer. The market is expecting that the away team will win so the 1-1 will not be as low. Naturally a second goal will push the overs to the fore in the same way as a Homer but if the score remains 0-1  there needs to be something to soften the blow. I think I may have found it. It is pleasing that I have had no losses since I decided that it was stable enough to record the results, however I am not getting carried away after just six results especially as there have been many losses during it's early testing. It is just as important to see how losing trades play out so the exit points can be reinforced.

I was thinking yesterday about trading the HDog with the game Denmark v Holland but decided to have a day without trading. That was a shame as the game played out nicely and would have been a good profit.

As far as the Homer is concerned I am not comfortable with the revised staking I introduced a few weeks ago as it leaves the 1-0 short particularly if the goal comes just before the max loss exit because the post goal 1-0 price will need more topping up than the usual.  It has also given situations where the max loss has been acheived a couple of minutes before HT. One of the answers is to increase the minimum price parameters but that would make match selection which is already sparse, even less which is not desirable. Trading is about offsetting the good with the bad. If the answer was simple we would all be millionaires but the reality on trading exchanges is that where there are winners there are losers. I suggest for the time being reducing the lay from £52 to £50 and perhaps shave a bit off the FG.

The Weekends Thoughts

Now that I am satisfied with the Homers long term performance. I want to spend more of my time developing the Dog and reinforcing the Active strategy. I am wary that the Dog is very much work in progress but recently I have been prepared to announce my picks, add them to my overall results and offer them out to a handful of hard core Homerites on the understanding that the strategy is not the finished product nor is it proven. I have been looking at this concept since July and whilst the early phases had mixed results with more losses than wins there has been a gradual improvement as time has gone by. 

MarketMatcher has been an essential element in my experimental process. With so much research needed this tool has saved me hours of valuable time and given me the incentive to continue to develop new ideas. Don't under estimate the power of this very simple tool, especially the custom search. If the developers can just add a facility to save custom searches it would be the icing on the cake. Click on the Betting System Notes banner in the right column for more information.

I am at the stage now where I am happy with the price parameters of the Dog but still trying out slightly different staking methods to extract the best value possible. Naturally it will be more profitable than the Homer across the three CS's although the overs result will be the same .Over the long term we know that the market get's it right therefore it is reasonable to expect that a HomerDog will not have the same win ratio as the Homer. This means it is essential that the picks are sensible and that the CS winning trade extracts more profit than the Homer whilst leaving the max loss exit the same as the Homer. I am trying to make the profit gap between greening up and letting it run the whole game as close as possible as it is in everyone's interest to secure an acceptable profit as soon as possible to free up the bank.

Whilst the Homer and Dog are rigid, the Active is far from it. There are many in play strats out there with one or two trades but I do not know any where a complete strat containing at least four different trades are fired into the market well into play. It is such an instinctive strategy that you may not have ever thought of trading the game until you see a scenario at a particular moment. For me this moment was last night with the game Almeria v Real Valladolid. MM confirmed the game had the Homer pricing but I was concerned that all the prices were on the very edge of qualifying and that an end to end game would result in the overs not reducing significantly enough that could leave a difficult risky situation. Some TF members decided to trade the Homer and the unders reduced nicely for them.  I continued to monitor the markets when after twenty minutes I noticed a scenario that I had never seen before. The unders were reducing nicely but the 1-0 and 1-1 were not moving. There are always games where the away team is dominating in a game at Homer prices but that 1-0 still reduces but at a slower rate. This gave the opportunity of a HomerActive that would have looked totally impossible at KO. I got on it and there was significant liquidity to offer it up complete with staking to all members in the chat room. Quite a few jumped on with me and the goal five minutes before half time secured the profit not only for the Active but for the Homer too. The final score was 1-1 which gives the biggest profit across the CS.  For the Active traders a score of overs would have given a much higher profit as the price was 1.45 instead of the Homers 1.70.

The summary of the weekends trades are as follows.

Friday 7/10 Czech Rep v Spain  HomerDog. Spain scored on 2 minutes so the insurance kicked in and the trade ended there with a scratch. ROI -7.31%.

Sunday 9/10 Albinoleffe v Livorno HomerDog. The pick was chosen with the objective of a good performance of the home team. It was far from that scenario as Livorno took them apart and were soon in a 0-2 lead. The important third goal came soon after the restart. ROI 29.68%.

Sunday 9/10 Gimnastic v Cartagena Homer. These were the bottom two teams. Both has played six and had still to chalk up their first win and had managed just seven goals. This is a classic Homer pick as two very poor sides up against each other normally results in goals. How wrong could I be as the final score was the dreaded 0-0. ROI -37.52%.

Sunday 9/10  Almeria v Real Valladolid HomerActive. ROI 41.03%.

Now that I will be using the Dog and Active more, I will keep a record of the strategy by type in addition to the total record.

As far as other trades are concerned I had a nice lay of Hamilton in the F1 on the basis of his recent reckless form and the added possibility of letting his team mate Button through if required. Hamilton's early puncture and his aggressive personal battle with Massa secured the profit. I also put in a lay of the Notts.County v Hartlepool score as the game entered added time which was also a great success.

Bad Luck or Fate?

 

I had one of those evenings which trading deals out to me occasionally.  A day when losses are inevitable no matter what happens on any course or any stadium!

I decided to trade some of the Kempton evening races and went about my trading in the usual way. The fourth race of the evening was the 7.10. It was 1m 4f which is the minimum distance that I trade in running. I allow myself one minute of scalping in a race that on average lasts about two and a half minutes. I was happy with my overall market position when suddenly my Geek software just disappeared. I was left holding my mouse and staring at my desktop. I had left some backs in the market which I only ever do when it's a flat race and knew what they would be swallowed up leaving me with a considerable loss if the favourite went on to lose. My backup is an Ipad running 3g but by the time I had the market up, my backs had been taken and the race was all but over. I am sure it was not a general problem with the software as I was one of it's first users and it has never done that before. I have also been using the current version for a while.

Was it just bad luck or fate! I would have been unharmed had the race been a hurdle or a chase or decided to close pre-race or after the first minute. The race was called 'Back or Lay at Betdaq.com' so perhaps it was a message!

Things did not get better when trading the Homer of Cittadella v Modena. To be honest after the episode with the horses I really wasn't in the right frame of mind but I had the 0-0 scalped and got the prices I wanted across my backs. It was 0-0 at HT but the scalping gave me the advantage to continue to about 55 minutes. Bad luck or fate raised it's ugly head yet again. I exited on 55 minutes only for Cittadella to score 30 seconds later. I had left myself with a scratch possibility but the FT score of 2-0 ensured that I made a loss. ROI -38.64.

I was unapproachable for the rest of the evening!

The Fine Line

It is a very fine line between winning and losing and this was highlighted in Saturdays trading. My first pick to kick off October was Wolves v Newcastle. At HT the score was 0-2 so the trade was was at zero and it allowed me to continue to 75 minutes before reaching the acceptable loss. Unfortunately the important third goal came far too late and I had already exited with the loss.  However things could and should have been very different. Wolves dominated the first half and were awarded a free kick midway through it when the incident clearly took place yards inside the penalty area. The ROI was -36.51%.

The second pick was Inter v Napoli. This certainly didn't go to script and I was extremely lucky to come away with a profit. HT was 0-1 with Inter down to 10 men. The loss at HT was lower than normal as the unders price took into consideration the red card and that more goals were expected. Napoli were in total control but by 55 minutes there were no further goals and I had reached my exit point. As I was about to exit Napoli scored to make it 0-2. I had lost the entire CS but my unders had increased significantly so that the entire trade was a scratch. To exit at this point would have been an acceptable move but I trade to the max loss and I figured that I could go to around 75 minutes before exiting. The scenario then played out exactly is it had 20 minutes earlier. I was ready to exit but before I could place my trades Napoli made it 0-3 and the Homer was landed with an ROI of 31.62%. Another fine line between winning and losing and a fair result that one was a win and the other was a loss.

The final game on Saturday was a HomerActive game Fluminense v Santos which three of us traded via PM in the TF chat room. We started entering trades on 25 minutes and we were able to secure a really low unders price before Santos scored on 33 minutes. 7 minutes later it was 1-1 and we calculated that we would be far better off closing all our positions so at HT we had done so and had achieved a large ROI of 48.98% for 15 minutes work. HomerActives are more profitable but decisions to trade them are made whilst the game is in play and are higher risk because prices are not very stable especially when liquidity is below average.

I didn't do any trading on Sunday or Monday but I suggested that Swansea v Stoke was a good one to get on. The unders price was just below 1.60 at the start so the strat to use would have been the HomerLow. The early goal secured a profit. The FT score of 2-0 would have given traders an above average profit.

As far as QPR are concerned, the least said about that the better!

 

My facebook is now full of friend requests where no TF alias has been stated. These requests will never be accepted.

September Summary

On Wednesday I traded the HomerActive on Middlesbro v Leicester. It was a lively game with the home team dominating possession and missing so many chances. The final score of 0-0 meant a loss with an ROI of -37.12%. It was definitely the right pick but unfortunately Middlesbro didn't read the script!

I did not do any trading on Thursday or Friday and so ended a very successful month for the Homer family. The final results for September were as follows.

Traded Matches 23

Profit = 17 Minimum ROI 20.05%, Maximum ROI 90.12% Average ROI 36.05%

Scratch = 2 Average ROI 3.91%

Loss = 4 Minimum ROI -34.98%, Maximum ROI -38.30%, Average ROI -37.04%

Overall P&L if using single stakes = £259.35

Average P&L across all 23 matches = £11.28

Average Liability = £55.96

Average ROI = 20.70%

A loss every 5.75 matches.

Longest winning run = 11

Longest losing run = 1

Please see the Homer Results tab to view the results by match for September 2011.