What will happen to the elite?

I have decided to try to continue to post at least once a week but make the content more than just my P&L performance.

Let's start with the recent Premium Charge rises which will only affect a ‘small’ number of successful customers who have acheived lifetime profits of over £250,000. For customers who were profiting from the very start of Betfairs existence that would mean that to reach today's milestone they only needed to profit at an average of £60 per day. When you look at it from that perspective, the quarter of a million doesn't look that impossible to many people. Us bog standard traders know that it 's far easier said than done. Nevertheless should these elite few be penalised for profiting perhaps as low us £25,000 a year? I am sure they would argue that they have been instrumental in making Betfair what it is today.

I admit that I am not the brightest spark and I apologies in advance if I make naive comments but surely a PC of up to 60% of any profit is going to force the elite to move to Betdaq. What choice do they have? I cannot see how they can accept giving away more profit than they will earn.

I know there is always talk of a mass move and that nothing ever happens but isn’t this going to force the issue or will the loss of the elite make minimal impact to the liquidity. Is this what Betfair want?

I understand that the more a customer trades the more points they get and the less commission Betfair will receive from the constant winners which is disproportionate to the average customer base and that existing losing customers are leave Betfair quicker than expected when they find that they just cannot cut it as a trader but don’t they need to balance that with the risk of assisting other exchanges to grow?

From a selfish point of view, if the Elite do disappear from the scene it may make trading the ladders much easier. I know I find trading the ladders a whole lot easier on Sundays when I am sure that most professional traders take time off with the family. If it puts extra green in my pocket at the expense of the elite then that’s payback for all the times I have been screwed when the ladders go against me for long enough. It will also evolve over time to elevate a new elite group who will have a few years to enjoy the fruits of successful trading before reaching the upper limit.

I would really be interested to read comments from others on this.

Now, from successful traders to one particular person that I cannot get my head around. John from Betafir Profit and Loss. I respect anyone who takes the time to blog and with John you really get the feel of what is going on in his mind and his heart. When you read the comments from many people they may criticise John but it is almost always constructive rather than abusive. He gets criticism quite often in the blogging world too and it is done to genuinely try to help him rather than to kick him when he’s down.

John was very successful up to the end of September 2010 and showed his P&L for the previous 3 months at around £12k but since then things have gone downhill quite rapidly. In the last few months John has been sending the same message again and again. He says he is continuing to lose as he simply doesn’t have the large bank he needs to profit. This is simply not true and he has been told that more times than I can remember. If he has an edge to a winning strategy it doesn’t matter if he puts £2 or £200 on it as the end result is a win. His £12k profit he made between June and September 2010 may result in £600 this time round if he adopts the same strategy. Then he has a decent bank to move forward. In the last three months that he has been moaning about his bank he would have recovered his position to at least have more resources to step up. While John continues to take the view that a small bank will not work for him he will continue to lose. Psychology is all part of the trading game. If you are not in the right mindset you cannot possibly be successful in the dog eat dog trading world where there is such a fine line between success and failure. In his last couple of posts he is complaining about his small loss in the last three months but he fails to comment that in his last week of the three months he has won £226. He must stop his negative thoughts of how things used to be in the past and concentrate on being positive and moving forward. John doesn’t have any other income so he is under even more pressure to succeed which can also lead to unreasonable and rash trading decisions.

I and many others want to see him turn things around. Firstly he needs to be positive. Review his historical P&L for one last time and understand what went wrong then reduce his sport portfolio to concentrate on his strongest markets. He then needs to draw a line and start with a fresh page forgetting the past. I don’t want to read anything referring to how things were good last year. He needs to have a clear strategy on each market and keep to it. If he was successful in 2010 through strategy rather than being lucky then he will continue to profit. Bank size is totally irrelevant as he can reduce his stakes to scale but if he wants to start with a higher bank then the harsh reality is to find a job however junior it may be.

Us occasional bloggers are not all losing money!

I have been spurred on to add to my blog by a few factors. The biggest one is by Cassini at Green all Over and his extended post this morning celebrating his 250,000 hit.  It is a big acheivement to keep blogging to the extent that he has over the past three years but I take umbrage to his sweeping statement that bloggers who have not lasted the course are losing money. He may have the time to devote many hours to blogging but some of us make lifestyle changes that make it very difficult to continue.

The other factors which I have been surprised at include the many messages asking me to come back and the fact that despite not posting for two months, I still receive thirty separate hits a day.

Whilst I was blogging I wasn't able to devote my time to really knuckle down on the football trading. I used to be in the TF chat room a couple of nights a week but now I am logged in on most days after the evenings racing has ended. I have developed my own successful Homer strategy which I log on my new facebook page and compliment this with some of the TF's established strategies. I cannot tell you how TF has totally changed how I trade football games and they are the best service by far if you want to get into football trading.  Both my Horse Racing and Football trading has improved greatly and my profits are now consistent which I have been trying to reach unsuccessully over the last four years.

Blogging was an important part of my daily life whilst I was struggling trading but I have reached the point where the hour or two spent posting is better spent sharpening my trading skills. If I continue posting showing profits I am only going to be accused of showing off anyway and that has never been my intention so I am seriously considering calling it a day blogging.

I have said recently that I now trade inplay on races that are over 1m 4f which has really worked well and the reason is a bizarre but simple one. I never watch the race. I just react to the price movements. If I watch the race I am seeing and reacting to events that I am well behind on so there is no way I can ever maintain any kind of profit. Not watching changes things for me. I cannot describe what these price movements are but when it is about to drop down it reacts in a certain way and I am right most of the time and when I am wrong I set myself a price to get out. I have been caught out a few times but not so much as to wipe out a large portion of my profits.

One other thing. As I have been using Geek for a long time, I decided to take a free trial out with Fairbot and Gruss just to see what the competition is like. I have even traded a whole evenings card using the two trialists and I was back using Geek as they don't come close. Bet Angel is as good but I can't use it as it is too slow.

....oh and if anyone decides to make stupid comments, sign in with your name or don't bother!

Making Progress

Apart from the small football loss in the early hours of Monday, I had a rest from trading. It was an emotional rollercoaster at QPR and I didn't feel like doing much when I got home other than chill.

We were nine minutes from being champions when Hull decided to spoil the show with their only shot on target. However when our game finished we were promoted so long as Norwich didn't get a very late goal. Of course we all know what happened in the sixth minute of injury time which put a dampener on the afternoon. Pundits have been saying how we are as good a promoted but I don't agree. We are six points ahead of Cardiff with a 13 goal difference which could reasonably be overturned. We never beat Watford at Vicarage Road which if other results don't go our way will leave a rather nervy last game at home to Leeds.

The small break must have done me some good as I has a marvellous Tuesday evenings trading. I was juggling between the horses and a couple of early snooker frames of the evening session. I also traded a successful Homer in the Stoke game and put a lay on the draw in the Man.U game just as they scored and was disappointed that it wasn't matched.

I broke all the rules by laying a greyhound to win £25 or lose quite a bit more. But it was no ordinary greyhound. This one was called Miss Betfair and it came last.

Homing In On Profit

Another horse huff and puff session with lots of effort without reward. You can see from the image below that I lost close to £70 on the closing races. I seem to regularly have a good start only for it to be undone towards that end. It must be due to fatigue that results in loss of concentration.

Most of the snooker profit was gained yesterday when Higgins was playing Mcloed. Higgin's price at the start of each frame was an incredibly low 1.45 so there was plenty of room to manoeuvre thoughout each frame.

The football was an experience as I successfully led the Trading Football community through trading an Argentinian game between Arsenal and Gimnasia using the Homer strategy. The winning result showed a 32% roi. It really was a responsible and pressured experience until the first goal, as it was not just my cash at risk. I also led an unsuccesful trade at 12.15 in the morning where there were about 30 others burning the midnight oil. The exit was at half time and meant a small loss of £10 but any players that decided to stick it out were rewarded as the final score of 2-1 meant that one part of the strategy which was the  U2.5 lay at 1.68 came home.

The TF community has really grown over the past couple of months with some great characters old and new. It's such a pleasure entering into discussions with other members without any fear of abuse. Everyone supports each other and we are a close bunch which is suprising in such a virtual world. 

So £32 has been gained over the past couple of days. Not alot but at least it's in the right direction.

Off to QPR soon for the game with Hull. A win will guarantee promotion and the championship so will be an emotional afternoon if all goes to plane. Just hope we don't get bitten in the bum by losing points after the hearing next week.

Who Needs The Horses

A day when everything goes to plan is very rare but I acheived it without any horse racing and finished the day with a satisfying £123.

I wasn't even trading all day. The morning was spent trading a handful of snooker frames, earning £53 followed by an afternoon out with the family. I traded two football games using my newly named Homer. This is the strategy backing 1-0 1-1 2-0 and laying u2.5. The main criteria is to find a game with a fairly strong home team with a low u2.5 price. I sometimes take a risk and place the back bets while waiting for the u2.5 to drop to at least 1.80. I make sure that I pick a game that will reach 1.80 within 5 minutes of the start. It is a guaranteed winning strategy if the home team scores at any time.

I chose the Nottingham Forest v Leicester game as they both needed to push for the win. I layed u.5 6 minutes into the game and a few minutes later Homer was landed as Forest took the lead. With ten minutes to go and the scores at 1-1 I layed the current score to win an extra £15. 

My other game was Sligo v Bohemians. I recommended this game in the Footbal Trading chatroom but I don't think anyone else traded this game. U2.5 was a staggering 1.46 pregame and absolutely perfect for the Homer. Sligo scored early in the first half and the job was done. Better still, the game ended 1-2. I layed 1-2 with 15 minutes to go but there were no more goals. I should really accept my win and not be greedy to try and make extra gains.

Generally I put at risk about £70 to win £30. I will look to increase the risk over the next few weeks.

Hearts v Motherwell looks great for Homer. U2.5 is currently 1.73 on Betfair. Hearts are out on their own in 3rd place and I am hoping for a typical relaxed end of season game where goals will easily arrive. After note: I have noticed that this is not in play.

Good luck to QPR as they take on Cardiff live on BBC1 later today. I never trade a QPR game but I am expecting goals in the is one.

There is plenty of racing today but I won't be trading them intensively. I will just dip in and out. 

Thy Cup Runneth Over

I couldn't resist that title after having more than a chuckle watching the Real Madrid player drop the Spanish Cup trophy from the top of an open top bus only for it to fall beneath the wheels. It must have been a smashing night!

I do like reading Peter Webbs Bet Angel blog and I have a lot of time for his opinions and thoughts but one of his recent posts really challenged me! It challenged me into thinking what the hell was he going on about. So much so that I had to read it three times over to make sure that I didn't miss anything. I am sure there was nothing to miss. His last sentence said "so that's what I aim to acheive in 2011'. Please can someone explain to me what it actually is that he wants to acheive because I seem to be incapable to grasp what he's trying to say. Perhaps my educational background leaves me lacking in understanding.  Click here to see for yourself and then answers on a postcard.

Over the past four days I have profited by pennies under £100. That's just enough to push me back into the green. Football let me down as I traded the wrong side of the Tranmere v Notts.co. game. I could have settled for a loss of about £20 but did a couple of speculative gambles which didn't come off and ended up down by £58. I am making steady progress going in play on the horses and have even dabbled in the Australian version.

Happy Sunday

A profitable weekend which leaves me just £63 down for the month but it could have been so much more. Saturdays steady progress was undone when I lost £88 on one race. I only have myself to blame as the only two losses over £10 were in races of 7f which I shouldn't have been trading in play. I was down pre-race and thought that I could make it up in play. I must keep to my own rules of never going in play under 1.5 miles. The IPL ensured I ended up in a green position.

Sunday was much better as I reached three figures for the first time in seven weeks. It started early in the morning when I was suprised to see Vettels very low price of 1.5 a few minutes before the start. I layed him for £100 and was very happy to see him struggle off the start. The price shot up to 4 but then settled to around 2.7 before I started to take the profits. In the middle of the race it was interesting to see his price fall to well under 2's when he was still in third place. I should have gone back into the market but I settled for my £46 and moved on.

I traded a handful of horse races and was dispappointed at my final result of £9 as I managed to lose £25 in the last race. It was a good day with the Football. I layed 0-0 with about 15 minutes to go. I secured the profit thanks to Arsenals late penalty and saw a good opportunity when Liverpool had their free kick just as time was almost up. The price for 1-1 was 13's and I thought that it was too high as the FK was in a very good position. It was surely worth putting a measly £2 on it even if it was almost the last kick. The FK didn't come off but naturally I was delighted to see a penalty awarded a few seconds later and that it was converted. To finish the day I successfully traded my signature strategy (I must think up a name for it).  Laying a low priced U2.5 with correct scores of 1-0 1-1 2-0. As you can tell my stakes are generally small for Football and I need to have more scores go against me so I can work my way out of them with minimal loss before increasing them.

Lucklily I steered clear of the featured game at Trading Football which was Bolton V Stoke. Nobody could have predicted 0-3 after 30 minutes and while the service tried  to get the best out of a bad situation, it is a reminder to everyone that  whilst we enjoy the best fruits of success, these sort of games pop up now and then that no stats can predict. The real test is how you manage the position when it all goes against you and Bingo whilst accepting a loss was inevitable, led the troops to as minimal a loss as possible.

Huff & Puff

£93 may seem a satisfactory result but when it has been acheived over the course of 11 hours and 48 races, £20 of which was a late night US race it is disappointing. At least I have made a significant reduction to the month's red but I would have been happier with an average of £4 per race. £200 would have been a good return for all that huff and puff.

I lost a little on the football but to be honest they have all been gambles rather than trades over the last few days. All I did yesterday  was lay the current score late in the Norwich game. I need to get back into the routine of actually trading the games and what better way to start than with the Manchester Derby

There is plenty of other sport this weekend. World Snooker starts today and I will be dipping in and out of the frame market. Sunday there is the Chinese Grand Prix and the Marathon. IPL continues and it is interesting to see that out of the completed 13 matches, 10 have been won by the team chasing.

Red Alert

Well, so much for the miracle at Tottenham!

The last couple of days have been a bit of a mixed bag. I am comfortable with my in play  horse strategy for the races over 1.5 mile. What I am falling down on is that I try to dabble in the sprints which is just not the correct thing to do because it is a 'luck' thing rather than my clearly defined longer race strategy. I am off work today so I am going to do the marathon 50 races and just pre-race in the sprints and see where that take me.

 

My football exploits over the last couple of days have not been great. I thought that the LDU game would produce lots of goals seeing as it was a group qualfier decider that both needed to win. In the end I was thankful for the tiny profit across the markets because I fell asleep midway through the first half. Not a great strategy to take! Then there's the Tottenham game where my dreams of a nice grand was just that...a dream!

I did an SHS on the Braga game on 60 minutes. If I followed the strat correctly I should have been out before the end but I decided to let it run thinking that Kiev would go all out for the goal they needed leaving themselves exposed at the back but they never really pushed hard and the goal never came.

My P&L this month does not make good reading but I am an eternal optimist and I am determined to pull it back. As you can see from the monthly summary I need to make £17.49 per day for a green month.

Almost There

A narrow win at Barnsley by Warnocks blue and White army means that we are eleven points clear of third place with 15 points to play for. Our vastly superior goal difference is worth an extra point so a win on Monday at home to Derby and we are back in the promised land.

It has been an unbelievable season. It has not always been the Taarabt show, the whole squad has worked very hard and played as a team. However the best signing has been Neil Warnock. His team selection, tactics, and man management skills cannot be faulted. I am sure that if the result goes our way on Monday it will be an emotional night!

I only hope that Blackpool can survive the drop so that we can be assured of some points and welcome the legend that is Holloway back to Loftus Road for a Premier Leage Game.

As for the trading. It was a total disaster. I did a combination of pre race and in play during the twilight meetings and I lost over £100 overall thanks to leaving a bet in the market. Same old same old! Why can I never leave a lay in, at least I would have more of a chance. The bet was on the favourite and of course the jockey gets wind that Handy has left a bet in so let's go slow to teach him a lesson! So that's about £250 down for the month. Happy days!

A friend of a friend knows someone who hears voices foretelling the future. I don't know if that is after he has had 10 pints and a bottle of Jack down the local but his advice is to lay the arse off Real Madrid to qualify coz it's deffo going to happen. I will be sticking a £10 liability on at 1.01 and if it comes off I will strip naked and dance around my webcam for all to see!