Thursday, 7 October 2010

Mr Geek - A Mixed Message

I have been feeling rough over the last three days, so after the late football on Sunday which settled just after midnight I kept away from any trading until I caught some of last evenings Kempton racing. You really need to be 100% well and fully focused to trade the horses and I was very sluggish and wasn't in the zone. I only traded five races and managed to lose £67.06. It was straight forward pre-race trading with nothing going in play so at least I didn't lose my cool over the disappointment.

However, I made it up on the football thanks to a few minutes of the Mickey Mouse cup between Sheffield Wednesday and Chesterfield. I thought there would be early goals and used a strategy which I tested out in the Boca v Lanos game on Sunday night and paper traded two games on Tuesday.

It is called the EGG strategy with stands for Early Goals Gamble. You place a bet on over 2.5 goals and the key is whether goals are scored by the 15th minute. After this time if one or no goals are scored you then trade the correct score looking to reduce the immediate liability. I will share it with the Nugget Crew members once I am comfortable that the strategy consistently works but for now it's in test mode. It is not rocket science as the first 15 minutes instruction is to do nothing. The hard work on the CS starts in the 16th minute when the score is 0-0 but if one goal is scored during the 15th minute there is some ammunition to work with. Last nights game was 1-1 after a quarter of the first half and I just locked in the profit and there ended my football session. Obviously I was very pleased but the core of the strategy is what happens when it's 0-0. We all know that 0-0 is a football traders nightmare so I need to see more of the 0-0 after 15 minutes before I share the strategy. Naturally game selection is critical with a reasonable price for the overs essential but it is safe to say that EGG is strictly not recommended for Italian, French and Portuguese games.

I have a backlog of spreadsheets to email out so if you have been waiting for a week or so I will get to your request over the next couple of days.  I was asked by a fellow nugetteer to produce a  spreadsheet solely on football. I have produced it largely based on my overall trading spreadsheet but is split by strategy types so that it gives an instant overview of which strats are working and which do not yield the profits. I have added a mini diary tab so that records can be kept on what you actually did during each game. It's nothing fancy but if football trading is your main sport then it works! I am just waiting for feedback before making it generally available.

I logged into GT yesterday and was presented with a mixed message from Mr. Geek!. I hope he doesn't mind me putting up a link to his forum post but I am not sure of the message he is trying to convey so I will let you make your own mind up. Is it that he is just not posting on his forum? Or is he stopping the advancement of his product?   It was only a few days ago that he announced that the charting was in test and once that was issued he would concentrate on the stop loss facility. I am getting a mixed message! If anyone can add some clarity to the situation it would be appreciated.

If he is walking away, whilst I personally would be disappointed, no user should have cause for complaint for the free software that he has provided over the past year. My personal message to Mr Geek is that it is a shame if such a great product with a large and supportive customer base is not developed further. We have all had a very long and successful free trial and it's time that you, Mr Geek, made some money out if it and started charging us!


Anonymous said...

Hi Andy,

Ref The Geek, i just think he is distancing himself from the politics and progressing TT in a more businesslike manner. He obviously has other commitments in his life and he has devoted the past 12 months creating a welcoming environment within the forum. From his point of view he is probably thinking he has done what he set out to do and i imagine the next step to make his business model viable will be to start charging which i have no problem with as i'm sure many won't. Just my thoughts but i cant see the TT being shelved after him spending so much time getting to the point he is at now.

Well done on the Footie trading by the way.

All the best

Anonymous said...

From what I can tell he's just taking a backseat from the forum to concentrate on development of the program and his other work. Not sure if you're a lifer on the forum but lots in that forum explaining things.

You probably know yourself how forums/blogs etc can take up your time and have few rewards at the end other than passing time. The Geek was probably on the forum almost 24/7 either having a laugh or replying to queries, sometimes you come to the conclusion that time could be better spent elsewhere.

I wouldn't worry about the toy disappearing as the new versions due look like it's the other vendors who should be worrying :)

Handy Andy said...

Thanks for your thoughts AT. I have not noticed your blog before and I have added it to my list.

Handy Andy said...

Hi Anon,

I rarely go on the forum and when I do I always take a look at his hilarious News 24 thread which he is stopping. I just noticed his message chance as it displayed when launching the GT application.

gundulf said...

And there I was thinking the 'forum wars' had been relegated to the dustbin of ancient history!

TG has been a great poster on his own and other forums over the years, and I will miss his wit and insight... however I respect his decision. He has come up with a great tool in GT, and although I use others for different things on my rare forays into pre-race scalping GT is, for me at least, the tool of choice!

Anonymous said...

hello mate, i wonder if you could add my blog to your list? i have added yours already. also ur a superhoop if im not wrong? good man

Anonymous said...

Would you like to exchange links?

Many Thanks

Betfair Guru said...

I believe The Geek has big plans for the future.

And I'm also led to believe that those plans are reliant on the Toy staying free.

I don't think anybody could blame him though if he charged for it.
Paul currently fronts all associated costs out of his own pocket less donations made by the few rather than the many.

I don't think anybody could complain about a £10 per month charge which I did hear was muted about at one stage. That's not come from TG though so don't quote me.

It's an excellent product.
As things stand though, his time is very limited and he cannot offer the levels of support that a cost based product would require.

Lets hope it remains essentially free but more people can find it in their hearts to donate and help him along with it.