Tuesday, 31 January 2012

Extreme Extravaganza Exhilaration

It was a great night at the console and it shows how important it is to have a decent scalp when trading the EHD. I decided to forget about analysing form and trade the three Premier EHD's on face value to show that the EHD produces result after result. The largest profit was at Wolves where they were smashed 0-3. This strat is not just about the home team.

All of the different type of Homer strats have the same single stake exit of £23. Swansea's first half goal meant that an exit at HT ensured  £28. Wolves 0-3 loss at the hands of Liverpool secured £51 profit. Unfortunately Everton's goal came too late but would have been a winner had the 0-0 been scalped successfully. This drew a slightly higher than normal £25 loss.The overall result over the three games was £54 profit.

The profit for the month based on my picks using single stakes is £265.02. The profit since September 2011 is £726.46

On the Horse Racing front the lays are producing interesting results where a large amount of selections are not only losing but are finishing unplaced. The last two days results are as follows:

30/1 14.20 Ayr  - Royal Mackintosh 5th BSP 5.10 fav                                      £24.39
30/1 15.40 Wolverhampton - Striker Torres 4th BSP 10.50                               £10.53
30/1 15.50 Plumpton - Don't Panic 8th BSP 6.40 fav                                     £18.52       
30/1 16.40 Wolverhampton - Justcallmehandsome 6th BSP 9.00 3rd fav          £12.50
31/1 13:30 Southwell - Newport Arch 4th BSP 7.60 2nd fav                              £15.15
31/1 13.50 Folkestone - Open Hearted 1st BSP 1.74 fav                                -£100.00
31/1 15.40 Taunton - Woodlark Island 6th BSP 8.60 3rd fav                             £13.16
31/1 16.20 Folkestone - Refusal 4th BSP 11.50                                               £9.52

Less 5% comm = -£1.42

23 Selections - 3 losses. Cumulative P&L = £5.91

Tuesday 31/1 Lays

Today’s lay selections:
1330 Southwell – Newport Arch
1540 Taunton – Woodlark island
1620 Folkestone – Refusal
1350 Folkeston - Open Hearted

Yesterday was a clean sweep with selections even outside the places. I will update yesterday's result later today together with some thoughts on staking differently to max the profit situation of having just 2 race winning horses since I started listing them on here.

Monday, 30 January 2012

Lays for Monday 30/1

Today’s lay selections:
1420 Ayr – Royal Mackintosh curr 5.60
1540 Wolverhampton – Striker Torres curr 11.00
1550 Plumpton – Don’t Panic curr 9.00
1640 Wolverhampton – Justcallmehandsome curr 8.60

Going Forecasts 
Ayr - Heavy-Soft in places (Precautionary Inspection 7.15am)
Wolverhampton - Standard
Plumpton - Good to Soft, Soft in place

Saturday 28/1 Results

1330 Cheltenham– Royales Charter Fell BSP 18.00                £5.88
1345 Leopardstown - AupCharlie  1st BSP 3.20 fav                 -£100
1435 Cheltenham - Time For Rupert 4th BSP 4.80 2nd fav        £26.32
1500 Lingfield – Nubar Boy 2nd BSP 6.60 3rd fav                    £17.86

Less 5% comm = -£52.44
15 Selections - 2 losses Cumulative P&L = £7.33

No selections Sunday 29/1

Saturday, 28 January 2012

Friday 27/1 Results

P&L to a liability of £100

1710 Wolverhampton –Garstang 2nd BSP 11.00                      £10.00
1810 Wolverhampton – Spin Cast 6th BSP 5.90 3rd fav            £20.41
1910 Wolverhampton – Not Til Monday 8th .BSP 8.00              £14.29

Less 5% comm = £42.46  Cumulative = £59.77

Friday, 27 January 2012

Thursday 26/1 Results

Not quite a clean sweep today but the last was a very unlucky race. Cut the Cackle had the momentum and was always likely to win as they approached the final furlong but was cut across and had to check before going wide and then gained very quickly and only just fell short on the line.

These things are always likely to happen and will no doubt even themselves out.

P&L to £100 liability. I am not suggesting to lay for this amount or even to lay at all. It is just a marker to monitor the performance.

1525 Warwick – Ockey de Neul 3rd BSP 5.60                            £14.71
1555 Warwick – Sizing America 9th BSP 12.50                           £8.70
1935 Kempton – Rightcar Won BSP 4.75 (highest in play 16)    -£100.00

Less 5% comm = -£77.76   Cumulative = £17.31

Thursday, 26 January 2012

Lays for Thursday

I am out and about today so just a quick post with today's lays. Please remember that these are not selected by me and should only be followed to see how they perform as they are sent to me from an old friend who backs horses only but says these are the strongest to lose.

Today’s lay selections:
1525 Warwick – Ockey de Neul curr 4.4
1555 Warwick – Sizing America curr 11.5
1935 Kempton - Rightcar curr 4.2

Warwick - Good to Soft-Soft in places on Hurdles course.
Kempton Park - Standard

No Place to Hide

Just a quick update on the those lays I put out earlier today. All five were not only winning lays but the selections were never in serious contention and none were even placed.

14:20 Lingfield - City Legend 7th BSP 7.80 3rd fav    liability to £100 = £14.71
15:20 Lingfield - Sumani 6th BSP 3.60 fav                liability to £100 = £38.46
15:30 Hereford - Bull Market PU BSP 13.00             liability to £100 = £8.33
16:20 Lingfield - Ermytrude 4th BSP 4.50 2nd fav      liability to £100 = £28.57
19:40 Kempton - Pharoh Jake 6th BSP 11.00           liability to £100 = £10.00

Less 5% commission = profit of £95.07

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Trading Update

It's been four weeks since my last post and my commitment to blogging every day is easier said than done. Even though I am not currently in a 9 to 5 job there just aren't enough hours in the day.

I review the next three days fixtures and prepare the newsletter around 7.30am which takes a good two hours. That leaves me about three to four hours to do other daily stuff such as shopping, doing the normal chores of daily family life and  relaxing and catching up with what I have recorded on sky plus. Then I am back in front of the laptop for three to four hours trading the horses. The last race is usually around 4pm which is the time when my wife arrives back from work and the kids from school. I then have a few hours with the family before the evenings football starts and I am usually at the console from 6.30pm for four hours. It's incredible how quick the day goes. It will be Christmas soon!

My general trading has been coming on leaps and bounds. Horse racing especially as I combine my own style of trading with Robbo's service over at Trading Football.  His single back to lay approach is really paying off and the guy never seems to sleep as he is trading football in the evenings and tennis throughout the night. On top of this he has time to maintain his blog at http://robbotradingpro.blogspot.com/.

With so much going on at the moment I don't have time to join the TF community for the football and to be perfectly honest I do miss it. Bingo, Ads and Robbo are super people with a great service and have very knowledgeable senior traders working with them. I wouldn't be trading any football if it weren't for them but I wouldn't change what I am doing in my life right now. It's hard work but thoroughly enjoyable.

The Homer Family picks have been maintaining there usual strong strike rate since the middle of December after an awful four weeks following the launch.The introduction of the Extreme HomerDog has been particularly encouraging. This strat is supposed to have a lower strike rate with a larger payout as the home side is by far the underdog. There is nothing that you can gain from the stats to justify the selection other than they are at home but the strike rate is on a par with all it's siblings with profits for a low CS result an average of £50 compared to the others that have a low score CS average of £23. A great example was a game last week between Doxa Dramas and mid table Aris Salonika. Doxa are rock bottom of the Greek league and had scored one goal all season. Their stats were P12, W0, D3,  L9. Doxa opened the scoring midway through the first half but were eventually beaten 1-3. We don't care who wins the game as long as the home team makes some sort of effort to score a goal. At 1-0 the trade was greened up for a £40 profit and on to the next game.

Picks aside, the daily list of qualifying games consistently have more wins and scratches to losers so whilst there could be consecutive losing trades, at the back of your mind you will always know that the true average will come to the fore.

The results on the right show the P&L if you traded the same games as me on single stakes.

I bumped into an old friend about three weeks ago at a wedding. Hadn't seen him for a couple of years. He has always backed the horses and had claimed to be very good at it but I never thought much about it. I told him what I was doing and how Betfair works etc. He told me that he backs at the bookies but not interested at all about anything online as hasn't a clue about computers and has no interest in it at all. He knows his horses and what was really interesting was when he told me how he makes his picks and the way he rules horses out.  I asked him had he ever thought of picking good priced horses to lose and I was shocked to hear that he had never even thought about it so I asked him if we could keep in contact and that whenever he did his selections could he let me know the best horses that he was very confident would not have a chance. He didn't even have an email address so would call me but I have since sorted it out for him.

Now I know nothing about horses apart from the fact they have four legs and make lots of mess that I have to avoid on approach to QPR!  He tells me the major contributor to his selections is the going and that he does his selections early in the morning but often changes them if the going changes and doesn't submit his bets until later in the day. He has been sending me a few selections a day from the last 10 days and there have been just two occasions where the horse has won the race and prices have been under 5's. What I find really interesting is that in most of the selections the horse has not even been in contention with 2 to 3 furlongs to go. They often disappear in the back straight. It has certainly been profitable for me.

So I thought it would be interesting to put the selections up here and we will see how they continue to perform. I will only put selections where Betfair price is no more than 16. To get better prices the lay can be made against the SP with a maximum price set or alternatively waiting for a better price in play.

1420 Lingfield– City Legend currently 5.7 to lay
1520 Lingfield - Sumani currently 4.5 to lay
1530 Hereford – Bull Market currently 9.0 to lay

1620 Lingfield - Ermytrude currently 3.6 to lay
1940 Kempton –Pharoh Jake currently 12.5 to lay but there is a big gap as the back is 10.0

Lingfield -Standard
Hereford - Soft 

Kempton - Standard

As he doesn't lay horses he has no staking plan but for now let's see where this take us. However to have some kind of marker I will record as a £100 liability to SP.

So that's another thing that will keep me busy!