Thursday, 29 July 2010

Seven Up

I thought I would start by wishing the rather lovely Jessica all the best for tomorrow as the 24 year old starts her quest to add the European Heptathlon gold medal to an already impressive World Outdoor and Indoor gold. I am not going to make a cheap comment with a suggestion to lay her! I think that would be a bad idea as she should romp home. I will monitor her progress closely and will get on her as soon as the opportunity presents itself!

Enough of that!  

In all seriousness, I am really surprised at the lack of interest the Euro Championships are experiencing. The stadium is empty, the markets are poor with only £118 matched on the Heptathlon winner market and the blue track is really annoying me as it just doesn't look the part!

What I gained in the Mens 100m, I lost on the womens. Had a little play on the horse for a small profit but overall I was slightly down on the day. To be honest I have switched off for this month and are now focussed to gain a good start for August.

Wednesday, 28 July 2010

Climbing the Mountain

I have been following a weekly documentary on one of the lesser known sky channels called Everest - Beyond the Limit. This week concentrated on two climbers who were on the final climb to the summit. They were tantalisingly close to the top but their progress was very slow and  for every step they took nearer, they were getting weaker and hypoxia was starting to set in. Hypoxia literally means "deficient in oxygen" and is a shortage of oxygen in the body.

It was clear that if they didn't turn back immediately they wouldn't make it back down the mountain. The lack of oxygen to the brain was giving them poor judgement and making it harder for them to make the correct decision to abandon their quest as they didn' t realise the massive danger they were in! Thankfully they had people around them who made them turn back and made sure they got down as quickly as possible.

At times trading can feel like a slow but careful climb up a never ending mountain and when a loss is encountered the first thing that comes into the mind of an undisciplined trader is to make that loss back as quickly as possible. We all know that the correct decision is to ignore the temptation to chase and to continue with the strategy that brought you half way up the mountain in the first place but much like the climbers, poor judgement sets in and we make decisions that we know are wrong but make them anyway as all sense of reason and financial safety are not even considered.  Thankfully unlike these inspirational brave climbers, we won't die if we ignore the symptoms but we will have an empty bank account that can have a lasting affect on ourselves, family and general life.

Like most, I do have a chasing problem but luckily my general strategy seems to be strong and the wasted losses are not more than the gains. Sundays bad performance continued into Monday. At one point I was up almost £100 on the horses but that disappeared very quickly and I was soon in a loss situation. Added to this was poor judgement in the cricket and football which contributed to an overall loss of £114.  On Tuesday I made a concious decision not to trade the horses and just put all my energies on the Essex Lancashire game which gave me a £48 profit.

I decided to give the whole trading lark a miss today but I made a spur of the moment to decision to put a little lay on Dwain in the 100m final as I felt that his odds on price was a little generous. A gamble it may be but a profit nonetheless.

Sunday, 25 July 2010

Ouch! (Part two)

The last three hours have gone from bad to worse.

Man.City unders, Phil Taylor lay, US racing suspended early.

Bad day...scream a little...draw a line...think positive...line graph still looks healthy...move on....goodnight.


It was always going to be an uphill task to gain profit today after the £86 loss thanks to the Brazilian game last night. I don't normally lose that much on one game but what can you do when you fall asleep and wake up with just 10 minutes of the game left! I have said before that you shouldn't trade when tired so another broken rule has cost me.

My opening move in the Grand Prix was to lay Alonso before the start. As the race progressed I switched positions and ended up with an all green book of just £12. Unfortunately I was already concentrating on the horses when Ferrari hinted at Massa to let Alonso through otherwise I would have dived in with everyone else. I probably wouldn't have picked up anything anyway.

The horse session was poor simply because of a mixture of trying too hard and being a complete arse. My mind was focused on reducing the deficit rather than just taking it steady race by race. I know that to trade successfully you need to be mentally stable and I definitely wasn't. I was scraping for everything I could including backing £100 at 1.08 at the Mabait photo because he had clearly won and it was an easy six quid. I lost £40 as the dead heat was announced. I would never ever do anything like that!

I laid £100 at 1.25 on Frontline Phantom as he battled with Robbie in the last at Carlisle. I got matched and the price immediately jumped to 3.5ish which would have netted me £60 but I was too slow and it went on to win.

Other badly traded races meant that the I ended with a horse loss of £128.37.

As I write Taylor is 8-7 up and I have a £200 lay at 1.12 to get me out of jail. More hope than judgement.

More later.......

Saturday, 24 July 2010

A Blog To Remember

It is sad to see that Adam Heathcotes blog heads my three month death row list and is just two weeks away from execution.
Every trader who has ever explored the blog scene would have come across his blog and formed their own opinion as to it's authenticity. It is hard to think that Adam would have gone to all the trouble of writing pure fantasy and somehow posting false P&L's for an entire year but then again how is it possible for anyone to acheive profits of almost £300,000 in 12 months?

His final post has also brought much conversation as to whether the previous year had taken it's toll with strange talk of the essential glass of water and the dreaded slow hand!  For me, he was a breath of fresh air that offered hope to all of us that are desperately seeking that elusive holy grail.

I have sent him a comment in the hope that he is still reading them with a request that he updates his blog. I really hope he does.

I have really got back into the zone with horses as I recorded my consecutive ton only for the day to be spoiled by the football markets. It is even worse than the P&L shows as there is an £86 loss on a Brazilian game that was settled in Sundays P&L so it will be hard work to turn that into profit. Roll on the Grand Prix.  I certainly need some strong advice from John at Betfair Profit & Loss as he certainly knows how to nail the football market.

Friday, 23 July 2010

Has It Really Been That Long?

I looked at my blog stats at about 4pm today to see that I had the grand sum of fourteen unique visitors of which eight were brand new. So I can definately say that I have six hard core supporters! So a big thank you to the two from England, two from north of the border, and one each from Norway and Portugal who have visited every day last week and still visit my page one week after my last post. It's far from the daily 150 that usually turn up when I post regularly with my daily P&L status.

...but is posting my P&L regularly a good thing?  Cassini over at The Green posts a comment from Rob the Builder who thinks that my type of blog is boring to read. Rob has his own blog that I have not visited before, it is called Gambling Cos Building is up the Spout. To be honest I think it is an interesting well written blog and I have added it to my bloglist but if you examine his visitor stats on the day he posts you will see that his comments of boring P&L postings are without foundation as his audience is very low and he has been doing this far longer than me.

You will notice that last Saturday I added a world counter. I think it's interesting seeing people from all the many different countries and cultures landing on my page.

So what's happened to me all week?

It's simply been a case of putting the family first. My 17 year old son had a Driving Test appointment for the end of September but last Saturday he had the opportunity to accept a driving test appointment for this afternoon due to a cancellation. 

He has been having professional lessons once a week since the middle of March with me also taking him out in his old banger that we bought him. His general road skills were not bad but he could not do any maneuvers such as Parallel Parking, Reversing round a corner and bay parking and there was not a cat in hells chance of him passing. So I agreed to take him out every evening for an intense training session. When I got home from work at 6ish on Monday through to Thursday, I took him out for a couple of hours so by the time I got back it would be about 8.00 to 8.30 by which time I am knackered and not in the right frame of mind to trade or even open my laptop!

So today was the big day and he had the ability to pass. However his final practice with me an hour before the test was poor which I put down to nerves. I didn't hold too much hope when he started the test, he pulled out of the car park indicating left and then changed it to right. However thirty minutes later he was back in the car park holding a Pass certificate having  obtained just seven minor errors. (You are allowed 14 minors but not one single major).

This means that I will have to work even harder at the trading game as I now have a huge Insurance premium to pay!

I did do a little bit on the iBet application earlier this week but it was a crazy thing to do and of course I lost a bit so tonight was the first real opportunity to trade since my big loss of over a week and I felt so fresh and found it an easy session making £137 which is almost one months premium!

I will be making every effort of adding to my page every day this week.

Thanks for your support. It's great to be back.

Saturday, 17 July 2010

A Day Off

After the misfortune of Thursday I decided to have a clean break and not do any trading yesterday. That was a bad decision as I was considering laying McIlroy before he started his round and laying Hampshire in the cricket.

I have friends over this afternoon so there will be no horse trading but will get involved with the odd trade in football and this evenings cricket.

Friday, 16 July 2010

The Inevitable Day

It seems almost inevitable that I have one very bad day during the middle of the month and this month hasn't disappointed. Having lost £25 on the first evening race I traded, my broadband  router decided to reboot just as the following race was about to start leaving me with an open liability of £164. There was no time to put the backup plan into action as the 5f race started and I just kept my fingers crossed that Piazza didn't win. It had a bad start but typically it came through just as the finish line fast approached. 

What is even more frustrating is that my decision not to chase cost me too. I know it's the best decision over the long term but  if I would have taken the plunge I would be in the green.

Am I superstitious? I am not sure, but this is the second time that I have seriously thought of withdrawing some cash on the morning of a  big loss and as I look through my records I can see that I have one big loss of over £101 per month which seems to occur during the middle of each month.

13/4 243.94
9/5   192.17
14/6 357.68
15/7 175.35

Oh well....onwards and upwards!

Wednesday, 14 July 2010

A Late Slog To A Century

I didn't do much trading on Tuesday but had a steady evening session tonight that took me to £67. There was not too much on the TV after 9.30pm so I flicked over to ATR to see Matt Chapman presenting the US races. He really does lift what is usually quite a boring show. I made my decision to trade the races until I had added the £33 necessary to reach £100. It was very slow progress and I was still short when the main show ended so I continued on until one of the last races before midnight when I was mid trading when the race suspended a little early and I was left with an open position with a loss of £55 if the favourite won. Thankfully the coin came up on my side this time and I bagged £29. 

I think I will give the US races a miss next time and just accept the initial profit.

Tuesday, 13 July 2010

The Football Season Starts This Week

With the World Cup only just over, the new 2010/2011 football season is about to start as the qualifying rounds of the Champions and Europa Leagues kick off this week. There should be quite a few 'overs' opportunities to take advantage of.

It has been the third day trading the horses since I have had my laptop back and it looks like those markets have returned to normal. There were a couple of standard volitile markets last evening but it looks like CM has disappeared from the scene along with his other World Cup and Wimbledon mates.

When a blog reaches three months without an update I remove it from my blog list. So it is sad that 'Drifters and Steamers' has fallen off the cliff! I always found what he had to say interesting and his trading recordings were very useful.

Sunday, 11 July 2010

From Joy To Despair

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and I should have turned off my laptop at 1.05pm and enjoyed the sun with the family after seeing Vettel lose the race on the first lap. My opening lay just needed a £2 back bet to ensure that any miraculous recovery was covered. He actually did fantastically well to finish 7th and I was £93 up.

I made a little profit on the cricket but it was all down hill after that. I think that the early profit made my attitude while horse trading complacent. It's a fine line getting it right pre-race and I think I was too relaxed. Then frustrated at how poorly I performed I went into overdrive on the WC final. I started with laying unders, followed by laying no next goal and ending with backing the outright win for Netherlands. A hat-trick I would like to forget!

In reality I have only lost £76 compared with last months huge loss but to think I was £93 up makes it even more frustrating.

I try to keep reminding myself that in this game it is hard to win and easy to lose!

A Good Return On The Horses

I subscribe to many blogs and general websites and read them through two Firefox addons, Google Redesigned and Feedly. As there are so many, I separate them into folders by marking each one from A to E with A being the most interesting for me. I only have a handful in A and one of them is Betting For A Living. Here I am, putting myself through this emotional rollercoaster with the comfort of knowing that if it all goes tits-up it's only a secondary income. However Mudflaps has two big worries constantly hanging over him. The obvious one of trading for his primary income and also trading the highly unpredictable in play horse markets without the fast pictures of the big boys. I admire anyone with the balls to take the plunge full time.  We all know that trading performance and confidence go hand in hand and  unfortunately his efforts have been rather sticky over the past few weeks so I wish him well to get back on track as he introduces additional strategies.

As for me, my first day back with nags was satisfying for my level. Having made £85 over 24 races I was pushing to try to reach £100 and my lay and subsequent trades of Bangladesh nearly paid off which would have netted me an additional £80. Unfortunately it was not to be.

The World Cup reaches it's climax this evening and I am very suprised to see that most predictions together with the markets suggest we will see a Spain victory. In my view Netherlands have performed much better than Spain and they continue with their remarkable record of 100% wins from the start of the qualifying group. To see the Orange Men at 4's to win is way off the mark in my opinion.

I know that normally the Final is a very defensive affair but I have a feeling that this will be a more open game so will be placing an opening trade of laying under 2.5 goals. At 1.61 it's worth a go. Naturally I will be looking for that early goal to set things off.

What about the Grand Prix? The market suggests that we are in for a procession but I think that Vettels price of 1.59 is too low. I will be laying shortly before the off and hope that Webber get's off to a better start. I do realise that if Vettel get's off to his usual good start the price will drop to around 1.35 but there will be still be 90 minutes of racing where anything can happen!

Saturday, 10 July 2010

Great To Be Back

No I have not disappeared off the face of the earth, you can't get rid of me that easily!

As stated last Sunday my laptop went in for repair and I never really had a chance to use the family PC as the kids were hogging it. When I did try to use it they were all nagging me to get off so I just gave up! In addition I have been working in France for a couple of days. 

This afternoon I picked up my little baby and I didn't realise how much I would miss it! It's all back to it's sparkly best and it now has a matt screen so I don't have to see my ugly mug reflecting back at me.

Have I missed trading the horses? You bet I have. Don't know if that's a bad thing and whether I should call Gamblers Anonoymous yet. Hmm maybe I'll wait until I start having losing months!

I have still managed to trade a few Cricket and Football games using the iBetmate app on the iPhone with mixed success. Today's cricket was a traders dream with the losers getting off to a great start with the price falling to about 1.30 but it's not the same without the four legged beauties.

By the way, is CM still around or has he emptied his wallet?

Finally, congratulations to Howard Webb who will reach the pinnacle of his career on Sunday.

Sunday, 4 July 2010

The Cash Master

It's been an interesting couple of days. Firstly there's the horses. £178 on Saturday and £95 for only a handful of races today. This is no coincedence because my strategy for the latter half of Saturday and all the races I traded today was based on the activity of one person!

I called this person an Idiot punter earlier this week but because the actions of he/she has now started to comfortably make me money over the last 24 hours, they will be referred to as the 'Cash Master'. Everyone who trades the horses religiously will know who I am talking about. Those massive chunks of cash that populate the market occasionally that drop the price faster than Orlando's Tower of Terror are not spoof bets and whatever CM's trading strategy is I hope he/she is here to stay as I am reading CM well. I know that in this game a good strategy does not last forever which is naturally why I won't be revealing it. Eventually everyone ends up reading the moves and in time it is all nullified so I will be happy while it lasts!

Did anyone notice that CM put in a huge bet just a couple of seconds before the start of an Irish race where they must have been matched for quite a bit coz they went in play which stuck out like sore thumb! They must have cash to burn!

One thing I will say is that the Geeks Toy (free trading software) was a major factor to my strategy with it's lightening speed. I recommend clicking on the banner and taking the plunge. I am not on any referal scheme so there is nothing in it for me.

Unfortunately for me my laptop is being sent away for a week to be repaired as half the screen is dark red. This will mean that when I trade the evening horses on the family PC I will not be seeing pictures which always makes me a little uncomfortable.

In contrast to the horses there is the Tennis. Tradeshark had another live session where he traded the ladies final. I decided to copy his moves using half his stakes. He ended up profiting with £55 and I lost £8. Work that one out!  I can't even follow correctly!  Today I traded the mens final and lost £38. Perhaps Tennis and me and not meant to be!

Then there's the football. I was looking around to see if there was anything decent to get me over £100 today. Yes I know that I shouldn't be using targets but I am only human! So I went for the Norwegian classic of Lillestrom v Valerenga. I laid the draw for £50 with a liability of around £130 and at half time it was 0-0. My exit stategy is to part trade out at about 60 minutes and look for other markets within the same game to help reduce the loss.Three minutes before I aim to exit Valerenga score. It would have been better if the home team scored but at least I was even. I waited a couple of minutes and then I went to trade out completely with a loss of £1. One of the great features of Geek is that you see the trade counting down and with one second to go it suspended. First thing I thought was 'damn it's going to be 1-1' but lucky for me it went 0-2. As soon as it unsuspended I put in my closing trade with an all green profit of £34. Would you believe it........with one second to go it suspended again.....and I got lucky again as the score went to 0-3 and I could finaly exit with a profit after comission of £44.

The game ended 1-4.

I am not getting carried away as I know too well that things can turn against me but I am determined not to make the same stupid mistakes that cost me so much last month.

Saturday, 3 July 2010

A Nice Reward

A quick post to show that I had a really good horse session to take me past the total profit in June. More in the morning.

Ghana Goner

I am a qualified football referee and watching the amazing end to the Ghana game reminded me of my training course many years ago and a particular scenario which at the time my tutor claimed had never happened in the professional and major amateur game. We got very close to that scenario yesterday and if it actually would have happened it would have been interesting  to have seen if the referee would have applied the law correctly.

If the goaline handball was technically the last action of the game, the game is then extended to  allow for the taking of the penalty kick. I am assuming that the referee would have advised the players that the actual kick would be the last action which would rule out any possible follow ups by a save or hitting the woodwork. As we know, the ball hit the bar and flew over but what would have happened if the ball hit the bar came back and hit the back of the goalkeeper and went into the net?

If this was the end of game penalty shootout a goal is awarded but as it was a standard penalty kick and the last kick, as soon as the ball travelled away from goal the referee must signal the end of the game so he should have disallowed the goal. If he did apply the law correctly there would have probably been a riot on the pitch as I can't imagine the players and managers would have known about it.

I mentioned last month about looking at opportunites that may arise in other markets as a result  of the market that is currently in play. One such opportunity came to light when Ghana were awarded that last minute penalty. Over on the 'winner' market the price of Uruguay rose to 400. There wasn't much cash available but it would have been a gamble worth paying if Ghana missed and then went on to lose the shoot out. This is exactly what happenned and as a result the price for Uruguay reduced to 12.

Encouraged at Paul's ease at trading the tennis market over at Tradeshark plus the fact that I had the day off, I decided to give the Murray game a go. Like a true inexperienced Tennis trader I managed to lose £40. Oh well there is always todays game!

I made it back thanks to Middlesex.

The small horse loss doesn't tell the whole story as at one point I was down £80 thanks to the return of the idiot of a punter who seems to enjoy placing their large back bets half down the ladder to hoover everything above which sees the price suddenly drop 20 ticks. In one pre race I was up £18 only to see me down £25 in less than a second! I admit that I went in play a few times (even though I shouldn't) to try to recoup my losses but the strategy worked this time as I quickly clawed it back.

I was up a tiny bit on Thursday but overall I am slightly in the red for July.