Wednesday, 30 November 2011

Round in Circles

Running a service on my own plus trying to get a good days trading behind me is far harder than I could ever have imagined. I seem to always be on the go and spare time is at a premium. This is why there have been a few days without a post.  However I am thoroughly enjoying myself and wouldn't have it any other way.

The screenshot above looks like I have had a fairly placid last few days but it has been far from that. The horse racing includes two separate £100 losses.  I always make sure that when I back in a chase or hurdles, I stay in the trade for as little time as possible. In these cases I was extremely unlucky as both fell a few seconds after I opened the trade.

It was a similar situation with the football. Having multi staked with two losers on Saturday and then a loss on the Swansea game on Sunday, I then staked very heavily on the Liverpool v Manchester City which brought me back towards profitability. I then cemented the come back with three winning Homers on Monday. 

£100 over five days is not going to feed the family but at least it is not a loss. I did not post today's P&L as I started writing this earlier in the day but now its late here it is.

So let's see the final scores on the doors for November.

Traded Matches 27
Profit = 11 Minimum ROI 27.87%, Maximum ROI 57.81%
Scratch = 3 Average ROI -2.64%
Loss = 13 Minimum ROI -9.30%, Maximum ROI -45.33%

Overall P&L if using single stakes = -£81.53
Average P&L across all 27 matches = -£3.02
Average Liability = £60.67
Average ROI = -3.87%
A loss every 2.08 matches.
Longest winning run = 4
Longest losing run = 3

Friday, 25 November 2011

Another Green Day

Another Horse Racing session with the guys at TF combined with my own strategy which resulted in a profit of almost £50. However at one point I was up £80 but got caught in between trades when a horse fell. I have upped my bank quite considerably not only for the horses but for scalping from the PMT tool too so that I can open more than one lay trade at a time.  I am looking for an average daily profit of £80 but will not force any trades just because I am short. Over the two days I am at an average of £73.

There were no Homer picks from me for yesterday but there were four qualifying games. Three were guaranteed winners, the other match would have been either a winner or scratch depending on the route that was take after 0-2.

Thursday, 24 November 2011

A Clear Mind and my Daily Challenge

Now that I am unemployed for the first time in my working career, I have a weird feeling of complete release. As if I have had a weight lifted off my shoulders. I can now fully focus on doing something that I truly love to do and perhaps this totally relaxed state will aid my trading. How I perform over the next  month will decide whether I can take that step into trading full time.

I have therefore decided to put myself in the spotlight and record my P&L each day. If I have a truly dreadful day then you will see it in all it's glory. The fact that I am committing myself with my results may hold me back from making any stupid decisions.

This afternoon I tackled the horse racing and used a combination of Robbo's excellent in play advice over at TF, together with my own pre-race and in-play strategies.  It didn't start well as I lost £24 in the first race but then I picked things up nicely throughout most of the rest of the card until I lost £25 over two races near the end. The end result was a profit of almost £40.

I then moved into the evening session with a HomerDog of Leverkusen v Chelsea. Yet again HT was a disappointing 0-0. I had scalped the 0-0 so decided to exit with a scratch rather than continue to 55 minutes. For the members who hadn't scalped, they implemented the exit rules and the trade was saved thanks to the last minute third goal. ROI -3.75%

I managed to make a profit from the game after I laid the current score at 1.24 which gave me some satisfaction. This enabled me to accumulate just short of £100 for the day.  This is the sort of daily result that is needed consistently if I am ever going to consider making this a full time occupation.

Wednesday, 23 November 2011

A Weekend To Forget!

Trading is all about taking the rough with the smooth but making sure that the smooth is more dominant to obtain long term success. Having had a relatively smooth ride these last seven or so months my Homer family picks hit rough waters at the end of October and are still traversing through them. That is not to say that the strategies are heading towards Niagara Falls, indeed they are still producing result after result. Over the weekend MarketMatcher highlighted eight Homers. I picked three which all lost. The other five won. However despite this temporary difficulty my picks still have a no loss strike rate above 70%. 

For the members who have followed me through TF they recognise that this is a temporary blip but for those who are brand new to the strategy it is more difficult to accept and I can appreciate that. How many times do I keep saying that you can do the all the homework you want for any football strategy but you have no control once the game kicks off. Let's bring the results up to date since the successful Colombia HomerDog.

Friday 18/11 Kaiserslautern v  Leverkusen. HomerDog. This was 0-0 at HT. The away team scored on 54 minutes which is the worst time for the away goal. This game finished 0-2 despite 24 shots on target in what was a very entertaining game. ROI -41.02%.

Saturday 19/11 Sunderland v Fulham. Homer. This had a lively first half and the home team were unlucky to have scored but while goals were being scored all around the Premier League, this game petered out in the second half to finish 0-0. ROI -36.70%.

Saturday 19/11 Fiorentina v AC Milan. HomerDog. The perfect pick with the home team's great goalscoring record at home and Milans recent scintillating form. Milan had a perfectly good goal ruled out for offside which would have set us on the way but it was not to be.  I staked heavy but paid the price. FT 0-0. No home goals in the three traded games.ROI -39.92%

Sunday 20/11 Elche v Deportivo. Homer. I wasn't planning on trading this as liquidity was low but I received a few emails from members asking for me to stake it. That drove my interest and a handful of us were at the console for the 11am kick off. A goal in the 20th minute secured the profit. It ended as an overs result. ROI 27.87%.

Sunday 20/11 Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano. Homer. This was as poor as a game can get with two sides who would struggle to beat a lower division Sunday pub team. Osasuna had been scoring at home but seemed to be still affected by the week before's 7-1 away defeat to Real Madrid.Yet another 0-0. ROI -38.42%.

Sunday 20/11 Hamburg v Hoffenheim. HomerActive. This is the first time I traded this strategy with a group. We got on in the 20th minute. The goal came 5 minutes later. FT 2-0. ROI 28.14%

Tuesday 22/11 CSKA Moscow v Lille. Homer. The home team needed the home win to secure qualification and had been scoring for fun at home. However, just  like the previous picks the form was out of the window as Lille dominated. The 0-2 score meant another loss. ROI -45.33%.

What was ironic was some members against my advice traded the Homer Granada v Mallorca and secured the profit only for the game to be abandoned after 61 minutes due to the linesmen being hit in the face by a brolly!  Perhaps the weekend was never meant to be.  

Weekend - 7 Trades. 2 wins, 5 losses and just 3 home goals. At single stakes that is a loss of £95.

Overall - 201 Trades. 125 wins, 17 scratches, 59 losses.

The in-play console which I only introduced by overwhelming demand by the members has worked well. It is only used during Homer fixtures exclusively for those strategies.

Now that I am officially unemployed, I am going to start trading the horses in the afternoon and will report on my progress.

Stay positive. Onwards and upwards.

Sunday, 20 November 2011

A Geeks Toy supports Children in Need

It's Children in Need weekend and that means that the team at A Geeks Toy have organised various fundraising activities to support this important project. Please pop over to their forum to see what activities are in play.

Talking about 'in-play', AGT will be upgraded on Monday to include this new feature. 

The application is already rich in important features. The current version 1.2 beta has new functions such as Stop Loss, Dutching, Bookmaking and the Multibet tool. 

In addition, the application will soon be available for the Betdaq markets. 

But there is one feature that dwarfs all others......the application is totally FREE!!!! 

A Geeks Toy Pro.....Probably the best Betfair Trading Software in the world!

Thursday, 17 November 2011

Can't Wait Until the Weekend

This morning I have released my newsletter which contains picks and a watch list for the fixtures on Friday evening through to Saturday evening.  There are three firm picks subject to movements in price and nine others on the rolling watch list. 

For those who are members of Betting System Notes, Saturdays Homer selections will not appear on MarketMatcher until 48 hours before the match is due to kick off. Purchasing the Homer Family strategies and subscribing to my daily service will ensure that potential Saturday Homer Family fixtures will be highlighted at least 54 hours before kick off as I will examine each and every game. I rarely pick French or Scottish games but ALL games with potential Homer pricing will be highlighted together with my personal opinion on the fixture.

If anyone who has subscribed to the daily service has not received the newsletter then please contact me via email so I can investigate.

Wednesday, 16 November 2011

Colombia v Argentina. The Perfect HomerDog

It has been an extremely hectic week since the strategies have been released but now the peak is over I can now focus on the blog. I can now give a brief review of the opening three official picks and update the results on the right and on my spreadsheet under the 'Homer Results' tab.

However, firstly big thanks have to go to Bingo and Robbo who both gave a scintillating performance with their advice on the afternoons horse racing over at TF yesterday. They advised the entries and exits points on most of the in-play racing and came up trumps every time. It was clear that this wasn't guesswork. Both had done meticulous research as they justified their picks. It was a great alternative to the football in a week where the fixtures for trading have been poor.

The first official pick since the release of the strategies was Friday's HomerDog of England v Spain. I rarely get involved with friendlies but thought that England and the corresponding CS prices were grossly overpriced and it was worth a look. It was clear midway through the first half England's intention was to defend at all costs as if it was some kind of experiment to prove to their critics that they can defend against the best in the world. However this was at the cost of having no attacking strategy. It was as if Capello told the team that scoring wasn't important. The unders dropped quicker than a lead balloon and we were faced with an unbelievable scenario of the MLE at 37 minutes. The MLE has always been reached at half time at the absolute earliest so this was a unique situation. With so much going on I did not have any time to scalp and so exited at 37 minutes and a loss to start the service. ROI -38.11%. Those that had a full 0-0 scalp would last to 50 minutes and would have been rewarded by the 47th minute goal. I cannot emphasise enough how important it is to learn and successfully execute the scalp. In the end the basis of my pick was right as England came out winners.

On Sunday saw the Homer trade of Deportivo v Celta Vigo. This game provided a small profit as the 4th minute 1-0 ensured that the insurance kicked in.  It was however a disappointment that the strategy wasn't give the opportunity to be used in full. ROI 31.33%

Yesterday I picked the HomerDog of Colombia v Argentina. Argentina have been struggling away and I felt it was a good opportunity for the underdog to at least get on the score sheet if not win the game. I prepared properly for this trade and was fully scalped on the 0-1 and half scalped on the 0-0. This left me in a very strong position but could still lose if the game remained 0-0 up to 60 minutes.

The home goal came very late in the first half which just shows what a fine line there is between winning and losing. As it was so late the market it settled at greatly reduced prices in addition we had a fantastic unders price of 1.47 enabling everyone who was chatting on Facebook to green up for a £30 profit to single stakes. ROI 57.81% The game ended 1-2 so anyone who left the trade open won £18.50.

Over the three games we have had three very different scenario's that has produced two greens and one red. At single stakes the fees for the Family of Homer Strategies document is well on it's way to being covered.

There have been no opportunities to introduce the HomerActive but I am sure we can find one or two games over the busy weekend. It is not the easiest to trade but I am sure it will be an interesting experience for members.

I will also be doing various videos of my trading and how I use A Geeks Toy to scalp, monitor and exit trades.

Monday, 14 November 2011

Brown Pants Factor

There is no such thing as free money and don't the layers that have spent £43,000 to win £43 just know it!

Amelia Lily who was one of the X-Factor favourites, gave an average performance in the very first week and paid the price. Naturally her price reached the Betfair ceiling and nobody could have predicted that not only has she returned to the show but she is the favourite at 4.3. Had anyone backed her for £10 at 1000 can now green up for £1,200.

Friday, 11 November 2011

No Spin With Me!

First and foremost, with me there is no spin. None whatsoever!

I am not taking any credit for the fact that I know some of you, including myself, came away with a profit of £60 or more for the HomerDog pick of Estonia v  Rep. Ireland.

Having launched the service yesterday I was keen that despite no official picks today, the members should trade a game for quarter stakes just to get used to the concept of these unique strategies. I advised not to use single stakes which would risk £20. The average potential profit was £28 but the strategy also has a scenario which could result in a profit of at least £60. I selected this fixture because the under 2.5 was at a ridiculous 1.46 so the liabilities would be kept to a minimum. There was no way I ever thought that the match would turn out like it did.

To be honest, I was concerned to learn during online chats that some members used single stakes. Incredibly the MLE was reached just as the score went 0-2 so some members had exited and others were preparing to exit. Closing the trade was the correct decision and those that did ended with a scratch trade. For the one's that were fated to be still in the trade found themselves heading towards the scenario which was timed perfectly to give members profit of anything between £55 and £75.

There were a couple of members that used their trading software providers training mode and there were also a couple that got themselves in a pickle and lost a very small amount but the idea of micro trading was for the very purpose of understanding the strategy and the maths behind the MLE and making the mistakes when the stakes are tiny.

Had I not been helping out on facebook chat I would have traded out about 30 seconds before the second goal. There will be no record against my stats.

The HomerDog really is the jewel in the family. Not a home goal in site and the biggest win a single stakes Homer family member has ever produced.

So well done to the winners. Unlucky to the scratchers but a big learning experience for all!

Thursday, 10 November 2011

Homer Strategies Now Available & Competition

Just a short post to advise that the Homer Strategies are now available as well as the monthly subscription which is free in the first month.

To celebrate the launch and my first HomerDog pick I have a super competition which is open to all subscribers of the daily service.

Email me with the time of the first goal in the England v Spain game up to 15 minutes before kick off and the nearest time will win lifetime access to Betting System Notes which has the fantastic MarketMatcher tool.  If you think the score will be 0-0 then state 'no goal'.  In the event of a tie a random draw will be made.

If the winner is already a BSN subscriber, they will receive a refund of the subscription fee of £39.99.

Wednesday, 9 November 2011


The last few days have been manic and I haven't had any time to bring the blog up to date.

On Sunday evening I traded the Homer Rayo Vallecano v Sociedad.  Like in the Everton game the home goal was scored not long after 9 minutes but enough time to execute the lay which ensured a winning trade. ROI 31.36%.

It is so important to get that lay in by the 10th minute at the latest and not to hang on to gain those extra few ticks. There is no excuse if the max price has been reached but if the price is a few ticks short then make the decision to either close the entire trade for scratch or take the high price and accept that a winning position will result in a small profit if either of the three CS scores are the final result. An overs result will not be affected by the high lay price.

The FT score was 4-0 which meant that I was paid on the overs result so had I entered my lay at a very high price it would not have had any bearing on my profit.

I will continue with the blog but my focus and priority will be with the Homerites that join the daily service which starts tomorrow. I don't want to sound cliche as it is not meant to sound like the boring hard sell slogans that we see time and time again but if everyone commits to joining that has already registered then there is no way that I will add to the numbers. I am already in 'knocked for six' by the response.

I will add the paypal links to the "Purchase and Subscription Service' tabs and links will be automatically emailed to download the PDF Strategy document and the Excel Spreadsheet. I will look out for any email queries throughout Thursday and aim to respond as quick as possible. I will also activate chat on facebook for more instant help. I advise anyone who joins the daily service to hook up with me on facebook just to have the instant chat facility if you need to get hold of me quickly.  

It will be a slow start as there are only a limited amount of secondary league competitive matches coming up over the next 7 days. I never trade friendlies or first leg matches so that will rule out all the weekend International games but hopefully the second leg playoffs midweek will have some opportunities. This period is not necessarily a bad thing as it will mean that Homerites can spend time understanding the strategies and get back to me with any queries.

I am sure we can find the odd low stake fun trade to practice on.

Sunday, 6 November 2011

Out of the Blocks in November

The weekend arrived on the back of four straight losses,  I have not experienced this sequence since I started recording the results in May and have to admit I was feeling a little under pressure going into the pick Newcastle v Everton which I suppose is only natural.

Now there is something to really worry about!

The pick was a 'no brainer' as the prices were generous, Newcastle being the form team while Everton had been struggling in their away games. I went into this game having scalped 0-0, 1-0 and 2-0 thanks to the marvellous PMT tool so was in a strong position from the start and was due to receive a bumper profit had it ended as unders with the usual three CS scores. This time the result mirrored the form and it was pleasing recording my first green in November although the 2-1 overs result produced a standard. ROI 30.00%.  At just single stakes the profit was exactly £18 which is almost double the monthly subscription to my support service. If you are interested or just want to know more please complete the form in the left column.

Trading is all about the bigger picture and the no loss strike rate remains consistent at over 70% and as long as teams play to their current form and do their jobs properly the Homer family will always be profitable.

Daily service to start Wednesday 9/11
Detailed Strategy Breakdown £19.99 one payment
Homer incorporating HomerLow

Daily Homer Picks and Support £9.99 per month
Three day rolling game watch. I highlight every game with the Homer family potential. Which one’s I am likely to follow and which games I will reject. Be prepared as the match draws near. Saturdays matches will be highlighted the Wednesday before.
Receive my trading Homer picks with justification. These will be known well in advance as a natural progression of the rolling game watch.
Receive my picks stakes. These will be mailed at least six hours before kick off and will be based on single stakes.
Free Homer Results Spreadsheet. Record your progress and see your results, strike rate and analysis by country.
Post Trade Analysis. I summarise the matches I trade. What went right and what were the difficulties..
Homer Results. I list the results of all games where the prices qualified for each Homer strategy whether picked or not.
Work in Progress.  Read my thoughts as I develop two Homer variations. HomerActiveDog & HomerExtremeDog. These strats will be available for free for members
Facebook.  This will be where I will be available for live one to one support. I will be available during all the games I pick and will advise in my daily emails what other times I will turn chat on. My facebook ‘friends’ will be amended for only paying members.
Notes. There will not be a chat room as I continue to support the Trading Football service and have absolutely no intention to compete against their first class service. I will trade the occasional Homer  in their room but I will not be releasing stakes until shortly before kick off. Members of my service will receive stakes and advice at least six hours before kick off. I will not be trading the Dog or Active strategies in their room.
Strategies Only.  The cost for the strategies without the daily support  but with the free spreadsheet is £29.99.
Support. Email me with any Homer related queries to

Saturday, 5 November 2011

Homer Kicks off Wednesday

If you are interesting in joining this exciting venture, please register in the left column.

You can now access my facebook page without having to give a TF alias.

Wednesday, 2 November 2011

The 0-2. What to do!

It was almost a certainty that having decided to launch a service, my results have shown three consecutive losses with the main Homer strategy dipping below 70% for the very first time. It is currently 69.80%. The last time I had a hatrick of reds was towards the end of June. Losses are inevitable and I am not going to sweep them under the carpet and only spin the good times like other sites. In the last nine games traded I have won just three but I have had losing runs twice before and I am not going to be negative about it. The losing runs are never as long or as frequent as the winning ones' and most importantly the overall position is strong with an overall no loss strike rate of 72.34% which is one loss in every 3.62 games. The other positive is that October ended as a profit at single stakes at £104.72.

One of the features of the daily service will be a post trade mini report of all the games I traded. The thoughts and choices I faced during the 90 minutes. However there is nothing that can be done in a game with no goals other than starting the game with a massive green 0-0 scalp and drip laying during the last third of the game but even then you are vulnerable to the away goal. The first half of Crystal Palace v Portsmouth was so dire that the prices far exceeded their usual position and I exited leaving zero on overs with a £26 loss that was £3 over what is acceptable. In theory I should have traded out on 42 minutes but with HT so close I decided to carry on. The second half had improved and in the end there were eight shots on target but the three goal escape never looked like coming close. ROI -41.79%.  To compound the bad day I lost internet connection just as the second half started and it didn't return for three hours.

I had pondered the HomerDog of Doncaster v Middlesbro but rejected it due to the home teams five goals in eight home games. Typically they opened the scoring on 14 minutes which would have ensured a profit.

On Monday I traded Stoke v Newcastle. Unders drifted out before kick off so I decided not to trade it but changed my mind when it reversed. At KO the unders price was 1.85 but the CS prices didn't lend that much support for a decent profit. 1.65 was the point where I was going to enter the market and I estimated it would take 15 minutes to get there leaving me vulnerable for 5 minutes. However as the game went through it's early phase, unders reduced significantly and at nine minutes was 1.67. In hindsight I should have taken a position as I was only 2 ticks away from my preferred entry point but decided to hang on and leave myself exposed when the game entered the 11th minute. Frustratingly the price hovered between 1.66/1.67 and I was punished by my poor decision making when Newcastle scored in the 12th minute with the price at 1.66. There was no value in risking the trade when short of a price by just 0.01 and I was left kicking myself. At that point I had no option but to trade out with an ROI of -46.39% but my liability was low as I had not executed the lay. 

The strategy gives firm exit points for the 0-0 and 0-1 but the 0-2 is a scenario where there is no right or wrong way. It comes down to personal choice. This was the quandary for traders as Newcastle made it 0-2 on 38 minutes. So let's assume that traders fired in their lay with single stakes at 1.67. As the second goal was scored the CS was lost but the unders was strong enough at 4.7 to make an immediate exit with a tiny profit. At half time it had reduced to 4.2. It was a very open first half so naturally the carrot of just one more goal for a full profit was a very tempting one but a decision needed to be made before proceeding any further.

a) Do you exit at half time with a guaranteed scratch?

b) Do you stay in the market at the point where you hedge the unders so that unders leaves a max loss of £23 while one goal and overs will be scratch? This would have been when the price reached 3.25 and would be somewhere between 52 and 55 minutes. The goal arrived in the 76th minute so this would have resulted in a scratch.

c) Do you stay in the market until the max loss of £23 is guaranteed with or without a further goal? That would have been when the price hit 1.96. In this game price was reached at 70 minutes and the goal came in the 76th minute so would have been a loss.

My philosophy is to stay in at all times until the max loss is reached. So for me I was always destined to lose.

I use Soccer Mystic to help me analyze games and work out scenarios with prices at certain points in the game. It is a good tool to use when in the middle of a trade as it will help you define when exit points are to be reached and what happens to the prices if a home or away goal is scored. I have added a section about the product. It is a free tool from within the Bet Angel software.

The full October analysis is as follows:

Traded Matches 28
Profit = 15 Minimum ROI 29.68%, Maximum ROI 57.38%
Scratch = 3 Average ROI -2.13%
Loss = 10 Minimum ROI -32.46%, Maximum ROI -47.03%

Overall P&L if using single stakes = £104.72
Average P&L across all 28 matches = £3.74
Average Liability = £52.63
Average ROI = 7.94%
A loss every 2.80 matches.
Longest winning run = 4
Longest losing run = 2 (yesterdays game is November)

Below is my results split by country. Where the strike rate is above 50% it is shown in green otherwise it's red. I have left all the popular countries/leagues in the grid so you can  see which one's I am yet to trade. 

Of the stats where the games traded are above 10 matches, It is interesting to see that above the average of 72% is Ireland 90%, Sweden 86%, CL&Europa 83%, Germany 80%, Brazil 79%, Japan 75% whilst below the average is England 64%, Internationals 65% Argentina 62%. All of these are profitable.

There are just three countries under 50%. Spain Scotland and Iceland with only 14 games traded between them.