Wednesday, 23 November 2011

A Weekend To Forget!

Trading is all about taking the rough with the smooth but making sure that the smooth is more dominant to obtain long term success. Having had a relatively smooth ride these last seven or so months my Homer family picks hit rough waters at the end of October and are still traversing through them. That is not to say that the strategies are heading towards Niagara Falls, indeed they are still producing result after result. Over the weekend MarketMatcher highlighted eight Homers. I picked three which all lost. The other five won. However despite this temporary difficulty my picks still have a no loss strike rate above 70%. 

For the members who have followed me through TF they recognise that this is a temporary blip but for those who are brand new to the strategy it is more difficult to accept and I can appreciate that. How many times do I keep saying that you can do the all the homework you want for any football strategy but you have no control once the game kicks off. Let's bring the results up to date since the successful Colombia HomerDog.

Friday 18/11 Kaiserslautern v  Leverkusen. HomerDog. This was 0-0 at HT. The away team scored on 54 minutes which is the worst time for the away goal. This game finished 0-2 despite 24 shots on target in what was a very entertaining game. ROI -41.02%.

Saturday 19/11 Sunderland v Fulham. Homer. This had a lively first half and the home team were unlucky to have scored but while goals were being scored all around the Premier League, this game petered out in the second half to finish 0-0. ROI -36.70%.

Saturday 19/11 Fiorentina v AC Milan. HomerDog. The perfect pick with the home team's great goalscoring record at home and Milans recent scintillating form. Milan had a perfectly good goal ruled out for offside which would have set us on the way but it was not to be.  I staked heavy but paid the price. FT 0-0. No home goals in the three traded games.ROI -39.92%

Sunday 20/11 Elche v Deportivo. Homer. I wasn't planning on trading this as liquidity was low but I received a few emails from members asking for me to stake it. That drove my interest and a handful of us were at the console for the 11am kick off. A goal in the 20th minute secured the profit. It ended as an overs result. ROI 27.87%.

Sunday 20/11 Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano. Homer. This was as poor as a game can get with two sides who would struggle to beat a lower division Sunday pub team. Osasuna had been scoring at home but seemed to be still affected by the week before's 7-1 away defeat to Real Madrid.Yet another 0-0. ROI -38.42%.

Sunday 20/11 Hamburg v Hoffenheim. HomerActive. This is the first time I traded this strategy with a group. We got on in the 20th minute. The goal came 5 minutes later. FT 2-0. ROI 28.14%

Tuesday 22/11 CSKA Moscow v Lille. Homer. The home team needed the home win to secure qualification and had been scoring for fun at home. However, just  like the previous picks the form was out of the window as Lille dominated. The 0-2 score meant another loss. ROI -45.33%.

What was ironic was some members against my advice traded the Homer Granada v Mallorca and secured the profit only for the game to be abandoned after 61 minutes due to the linesmen being hit in the face by a brolly!  Perhaps the weekend was never meant to be.  

Weekend - 7 Trades. 2 wins, 5 losses and just 3 home goals. At single stakes that is a loss of £95.

Overall - 201 Trades. 125 wins, 17 scratches, 59 losses.

The in-play console which I only introduced by overwhelming demand by the members has worked well. It is only used during Homer fixtures exclusively for those strategies.

Now that I am officially unemployed, I am going to start trading the horses in the afternoon and will report on my progress.

Stay positive. Onwards and upwards.

1 comment:

Football Gambler said...

Hi Andy,

Your last line sums it up, the system has worked over time and that's the main point.

I've used systems myself, some of my own crap ones, and one or two from off the shelf, and flown off the handle after a couple of losses and chased.

The main point is sticking with what you know (as I'm sure you don't need me to tell you) and it will come good again, not that it has even gone bad looking at your results.

For anyone just starting out with the system, it's the long run you need to judge it over, not a couple of weeks.

Unlike me in the past, it's just a case of keeping calm, patient and disciplined, and over time the system will come good.

Regards, Dean