Wednesday, 2 November 2011

The 0-2. What to do!

It was almost a certainty that having decided to launch a service, my results have shown three consecutive losses with the main Homer strategy dipping below 70% for the very first time. It is currently 69.80%. The last time I had a hatrick of reds was towards the end of June. Losses are inevitable and I am not going to sweep them under the carpet and only spin the good times like other sites. In the last nine games traded I have won just three but I have had losing runs twice before and I am not going to be negative about it. The losing runs are never as long or as frequent as the winning ones' and most importantly the overall position is strong with an overall no loss strike rate of 72.34% which is one loss in every 3.62 games. The other positive is that October ended as a profit at single stakes at £104.72.

One of the features of the daily service will be a post trade mini report of all the games I traded. The thoughts and choices I faced during the 90 minutes. However there is nothing that can be done in a game with no goals other than starting the game with a massive green 0-0 scalp and drip laying during the last third of the game but even then you are vulnerable to the away goal. The first half of Crystal Palace v Portsmouth was so dire that the prices far exceeded their usual position and I exited leaving zero on overs with a £26 loss that was £3 over what is acceptable. In theory I should have traded out on 42 minutes but with HT so close I decided to carry on. The second half had improved and in the end there were eight shots on target but the three goal escape never looked like coming close. ROI -41.79%.  To compound the bad day I lost internet connection just as the second half started and it didn't return for three hours.

I had pondered the HomerDog of Doncaster v Middlesbro but rejected it due to the home teams five goals in eight home games. Typically they opened the scoring on 14 minutes which would have ensured a profit.

On Monday I traded Stoke v Newcastle. Unders drifted out before kick off so I decided not to trade it but changed my mind when it reversed. At KO the unders price was 1.85 but the CS prices didn't lend that much support for a decent profit. 1.65 was the point where I was going to enter the market and I estimated it would take 15 minutes to get there leaving me vulnerable for 5 minutes. However as the game went through it's early phase, unders reduced significantly and at nine minutes was 1.67. In hindsight I should have taken a position as I was only 2 ticks away from my preferred entry point but decided to hang on and leave myself exposed when the game entered the 11th minute. Frustratingly the price hovered between 1.66/1.67 and I was punished by my poor decision making when Newcastle scored in the 12th minute with the price at 1.66. There was no value in risking the trade when short of a price by just 0.01 and I was left kicking myself. At that point I had no option but to trade out with an ROI of -46.39% but my liability was low as I had not executed the lay. 

The strategy gives firm exit points for the 0-0 and 0-1 but the 0-2 is a scenario where there is no right or wrong way. It comes down to personal choice. This was the quandary for traders as Newcastle made it 0-2 on 38 minutes. So let's assume that traders fired in their lay with single stakes at 1.67. As the second goal was scored the CS was lost but the unders was strong enough at 4.7 to make an immediate exit with a tiny profit. At half time it had reduced to 4.2. It was a very open first half so naturally the carrot of just one more goal for a full profit was a very tempting one but a decision needed to be made before proceeding any further.

a) Do you exit at half time with a guaranteed scratch?

b) Do you stay in the market at the point where you hedge the unders so that unders leaves a max loss of £23 while one goal and overs will be scratch? This would have been when the price reached 3.25 and would be somewhere between 52 and 55 minutes. The goal arrived in the 76th minute so this would have resulted in a scratch.

c) Do you stay in the market until the max loss of £23 is guaranteed with or without a further goal? That would have been when the price hit 1.96. In this game price was reached at 70 minutes and the goal came in the 76th minute so would have been a loss.

My philosophy is to stay in at all times until the max loss is reached. So for me I was always destined to lose.

I use Soccer Mystic to help me analyze games and work out scenarios with prices at certain points in the game. It is a good tool to use when in the middle of a trade as it will help you define when exit points are to be reached and what happens to the prices if a home or away goal is scored. I have added a section about the product. It is a free tool from within the Bet Angel software.

The full October analysis is as follows:

Traded Matches 28
Profit = 15 Minimum ROI 29.68%, Maximum ROI 57.38%
Scratch = 3 Average ROI -2.13%
Loss = 10 Minimum ROI -32.46%, Maximum ROI -47.03%

Overall P&L if using single stakes = £104.72
Average P&L across all 28 matches = £3.74
Average Liability = £52.63
Average ROI = 7.94%
A loss every 2.80 matches.
Longest winning run = 4
Longest losing run = 2 (yesterdays game is November)

Below is my results split by country. Where the strike rate is above 50% it is shown in green otherwise it's red. I have left all the popular countries/leagues in the grid so you can  see which one's I am yet to trade. 

Of the stats where the games traded are above 10 matches, It is interesting to see that above the average of 72% is Ireland 90%, Sweden 86%, CL&Europa 83%, Germany 80%, Brazil 79%, Japan 75% whilst below the average is England 64%, Internationals 65% Argentina 62%. All of these are profitable.

There are just three countries under 50%. Spain Scotland and Iceland with only 14 games traded between them.

1 comment:

jakg88 said...

Would you be interested in exchanging links?