Friday, 26 August 2011

An Excellent Evening

The evening certainly didn't pan out as I was expecting. I was going to trade the horses but I just couldn't leave the football markets alone even though I wasn't interested in the Europa competition. I just had to take a quick peek at MarketMatcher which had three Homer selections. The one that caught my eye was Dinamo Tbilisi v AEK Athens. AEK were 1-0 ahead from the first leg so Tbilisi needed to get a goal if they wanted to progress. I posted the pick on my facebook page with details of Tbilisi's recent home performances which were very encouraging. 

However, I didn't expect them to score inside the first minute. Under normal circumstances the profit (although not a big as when the lay is executed) was secured but Betfair did not suspend the markets immediately after the goal so they then suspended it for the next 35 minutes while they sorted through and eventually voided all the bets that were made after the goal. During these 35 minutes another goal to either side would have resulted in a loss of the overall trade. Thankfully this didn't happen and we eventually traded out in a far better position giving the TF members a large 72% ROI.

Because I had to keep my eye on the Tbilisi game while it was under suspension, I couldn't switch to the horses. By the time I had exited my position I was not in the mood for the horses.

There were two other Europa games where the prices qualified for the Homer which I didn't fancy but others took the plunge.
Sion v Celtic - The home team scored in the 3rd minute but the Celtic red card spoilt the usual post goal CS prices. However the profit was acceptable as like Tbilisi the lay wasn't executed. 27% ROI.
Birmingham v Nacional Madeira - The home team scored in the 15th minute and added a second before HT. The FT score was 3-0 which secured 25% ROI.

I then turned my eye towards Salzburg v Omonia Nicosia. Salzburg were 1-2 down from the first leg but a goal would see them take the advantage by the away goal. Salzburg was too strong a favourite to be a Homer pick but with the game at 0-0 on 38 minutes the prices all fell onto the Homer radar and I was able to trade the HomerActive. Salzburg scored in the 51st minute and my profit was secured with an ROI of 51%. HomerActives will always be a higher profit but can only be picked instinctively mid match.

The final Homer pick was the 12.15am game Palmeiras v Vasco da Gama. This was a Brazilian Copa 2nd leg match. The first leg was a 2-0 win to Vasco da Gama so Palmeiras needed to push for a goal to get back into the tie. The prices were just on the minimum that is acceptable but I decided to proceed with the many TF members who were still in chat and awake! We were rewarded with a home goal on 13 minutes. The game ended 3-1 and we took away an ROI of 25%.

Five Homer family trades were available and all five won. Only the three matches that I traded will be added to the spreadsheet.  I will be putting my picks on Facebook only but will report on their outcomes on here and on twitter. I have put one up for tomorrow already so If you want to be a part of my facebook community please link up with me with a message of your TF chat alias. Unfortunately if I don't see 'friends' occasionally in the 'green' room then the link will be removed.

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