Wednesday, 11 April 2012

The Real World

I have not added to my blog for a while as my day is swallowed up so quickly.  I have so much going on now what with the Homer Family football, trading the horses and now T20 Cricket which is currently being traded at the console.  We will also be having a delve into the Snooker World Championship which starts soon. I have also received many emails asking me to bring back the Lay Homers Horse selections which I am seriously considering.

With all this new content my blog is now outgrown and looking cluttered so I am in the process of migrating to a brand new website where I have far more freedom to expand and express myself. I am looking to launch this at the end of the month.

Once up and running I will do my best to update it every day with all aspects of my trading without spin and without the patronising statements that some other content providers choose to use. Having said that there are also services out there which are good and run by people that genuinely care about what they provide to their members.

As far as my own Homer service is concerned you can see the results on the right. When my members and I win, I shout about it like everyone else but when we lose I don't remain silent either! Adults do not need to be treated like children and only shown the bright side of the coin. I tweet even when days are not so good and don't find excuses for members either. Losing is part of trading and control of the losses are key to any successful long term strategy.

If you want to profit at £1000 a day and stay in a game for 89 minutes risking all and hoping to be saved you won't find it here. Instead you will profit in the real world with risk that is as slim as possible with a community of people who genuinely care about each others trading welfare.

Many traders subscribe to multiple services. I don't mind if members attend the console and don't take part in the console conversations but actively contribute in other services as I will announce audio instruction alerts so you will never miss out on any important in-play moves. I am niche and I encourage people to join many services for a varied portfolio.

To buy my strategy document please click the 'PayPal Buy Now' button and to join my service with the first 14 days free, please click the 'Subscribe' button below. Below that is an extract from the 33 page strategy document which gives an overview about me and how my football trading developed.

Add to Cart £29.98
The Family of Homer Football Strategies. 
Homer, HomerDog, HomerActive, EHD.
Free Homer Excel Results Spreadsheet.

Homer Daily Service - Free 14 Days  (New members only)
Thereafter £9.99 per month.
Daily Newsletter, Picks, Stakes,
Analysis, 3 Day Rolling Watch.
Access to console:
Trade Homer games live.
Trade T20 cricket & Snooker Frames live.
Be part of a friendly community.

If you are a returning member please subscribe on the Homer Buy/Subscribe tab.

Handy Andy.  An Introduction

I have been sports trading on and off for more than four years. Originally my main trading was pre-race horse racing but I also dabbled lightly in a few other sports including football where I was just going round in circles. Today, when I ask people what they used to do when they first started football trading most would say lay the draw and I was no different. It seems to be a bog standard way of starting out.  Like most, I would blindly forge ahead with no pre-defined structure as to the match selection, staking or exit strategy. If you can imagine standing on a slow conveyor belt travelling around a huge mug which you had to throw money into after each complete revolution then that was me. Football is my passion and I needed serious help to step off that conveyor belt but that is easier said than done. To this day my inbox is full of emails offering ‘get rich’ sports trading systems and services, mostly advertised in the same style and almost all just existing to take your money with no real interest in helping the customer. In amongst this deluge are just a handful of services that really do care about their customers and offer value for money for the service they provide.

I joined one service two years ago and they helped to completely transform my football trading. Within a few months I was disciplined with firm objectives for each match I traded. I analysed the match statistics, staked correctly, knew exactly where my exit points were, thinking for myself and enjoying the challenge.  However there was one factor which shadowed everything that I had learnt and that was plain old hard work and dedication!

I was making a small and steady profit on football for the first time. I had stepped off the conveyor belt and was now climbing the stairs at a slow pace. I was finally thinking for myself. I wanted to see if it was possible to find a simple to use strategy that had a quick defining moment which would secure an immediate profit but at the same time provide for a safe reasonable exit that would ensure the long term success. Something that I could call my own! 

I tried many ideas for months but was soon hooked on the concept of the home goal, after all even the worst teams seem to score regularly at home. What if I could make the home goal that one defining moment where no matter what else happens a profit was secured. What if I could add other factors that would increase the chances of a winning trade.  Could I find a way to win and lose as close to the same amounts as possible thus making the no win strike rate profitable at 51%?  The simple answer is yes but the match selection is key. If a game can be found where the prices qualify but at the same time giving the home team the realistic chance of providing that winning profit then we are half way there. What we have to come to terms with is that no matter how good we think our match selections are, we are at the mercy of those highly paid players. No matter how much the home team may dominate in that first half, if they don’t do their job and stick the ball in the net then we may lose money. Plain and simple.

The Homer and the HomerLow variation had been regularly and successfully traded by myself and others in another service chat room  for many months.

It is the prices that give this strategy its long term profitability. We can all lump on Chelsea when they are at home to Barnet but it won’t make any of us money over the longer term. I use strict match selection criteria which rule out a few competitions. Unfortunately this meant that the qualifying Homer matches were limited to around one every day and  perhaps two each on Saturday and Sunday. So I wanted to expand the Homer portfolio so that I could trade these games regularly. Therefore I developed the HomerDog, the frantic but successful HomerActive and the more recent Extreme HomerDog (EHD). Naturally they are all based on the home goal concept but the price criteria and staking is slightly different. HomerDog and EHD are very simple to execute, in fact those strategies need no intervention after the initial trades unless the max loss exit (MLE) needs to be executed. These three strategies are not traded on any other service and the criteria has only been published in this document.

I traded Homers successfully within another service and was very happy there, however, the success and popularity of the Homer coupled with the development of the siblings, answering queries, advising individuals, maintaining the blog and Facebook had taken its toll on my spare time. I arrived at the crossroads of either taking a back seat and trading quietly or continuing to use my time to help others in a more structured and professional manner where I could at the very least receive a fee for the time and effort that I was devoting. I now have a super community of my own.

What makes the Homer family stand out against many other strategies that I have come across is that you know where you stand to win or lose before you take the decision to trade. I provide a strategy calculator for console attendees which takes seconds to implement.  In basic terms Homer, HomerDog and HomerActive offer an average of the same win to lose ratio. This means we can instantly know that when we use x2 stakes we will win or lose approx £46, x4 stakes £92, x6 stakes £138 etc. EHD offers the potential of a bigger win.

For each single stake you have an iniital liability of around £60 but only ever risking up to £24. so if you trade a game using x4 stakes you will need a bank of at least £240. Only use multiple stakes for major league games with high Correct Score market volumes. Late night South American games should only be traded at half to single stakes and should be classed as fun trades.

In simple terms if you get to at least half time with the all scores except 0-0 & 0-1 you will not lose and even with these two scores there are options to scratch and even win the entire trade.


john said...

Have to agree with Andys comments above. I have been a follower since he started. This is the place to be at the minute. Andy does all the hard work so you don't have to. Every morning I get an E-mail with the days qualifying matches and Andy thoughts on them. I can plan my trading around my own busy life. The results are there for all to see and I can testify to their accuracy. Andy's console is also a great help where you can log-in for advice if you need it or just a general chat about the footie and with the cricket and snooker trading now where else would you want to be. Keep up the good work Andy.

Redimp said...

Nice post Andy. Great to see some transparency given some of the crap that has been posted on Twitter recently.