Sunday, 26 September 2010

Get Out Of Jail Free

By the time I had sent my last post yesterday morning,  I had already traded two football matches. I didn't mention them as I was hoping to add to them but as it happened my next trades were very late and were carried over to Sunday as I had arrived back from QPR later than anticipated.

The chat room was still busy at 10.30pm and three Brazilian games were about to kick off. Most people had decided to trade the Flamengo v Palmeiras as recommended by Adster but there were just a couple of us who had decided to concentrate on Santos v Cruzeiro using the Nugget Nibble strategy which looks for a high scoring game where the goals start to appear early.

Half Time was 0-0. If I had followed the strategy to the letter I should have been out of the match by 30 minutes with a scratch apart from one large green score but I decided to continue to half time which gave me room to make a few trades without having to rely on just one large correct score. I continued into the second half praying for the goals to come and they did. Five of them in total but the problem was that most of them came late so it was past midnight that I needed to green out with a considerable trade. Unfortunately only a small amount got matched so rather than collecting a nice all green position of £59 I ended up with just £17.


I was very frustrated but I knew that trading late carried risks of low liquidity. That was my warning of never to trade very late. I got out with a little profit but it could have so easily turned red. However my reasoning was overcome by tiredness and I jumped straight into the fire by moving straight to Colon v San Lorenzo which had just kicked off. The strategy I was using was AA. Most of the people in the chat room had left but Razor stayed on to offer advice. This is one of the major benefits of the chat room, there are always people ready to help. He wasn't trading the game but was willing to stick with me as I think at the back of his mind he thought my decison to play this game was a mistake. It truly was but that was not necessarily because I had applied the wrong strategy, it was because the liquidity was very poor and the prices on offer were way off what they should have been.

Razor did his best to guide me through an exit strategy but the prices were just not there and I had resigned myself to a £37 loss. Razor left with about 10 minutes to go and with time fast running out and the score at 1-0, one of the few options open to me was to lay the U1.5 market.  I did this with 5 minutes to go and my lay was matched with 2 minutes gone of the 4 minutes added time. The lay price was far higher than it should have been but 30 seconds later Santos came up with the goods by scoring the important goal.

I had just used my get of jail free card and the lesson has been well and truly learnt.

So today I am currently £34 in profit and with so much sport still to come I am determined  to significantly build on that. Easier said than done!  My plan today is to get involved with Elche v Valladolid  and then concentrate on this afternoons horses. It will be the first time in quite a while that I have been able to devote time for an entire horse session and I am looking forward to getting back to what was my core trading sport and attacking those ladders over the five meetings. I also want to do something with the Singapore Grand Prix but I am not happy with the prices on offer so will follow the early laps before deciding what to do. If I am still in the mood I will join the chat room in the evening for possible Spanish football trading.

I will try to write an entry tonight with the final results of the day.

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