Saturday, 10 September 2011

Lo to Hi in Shamrock

Let me make it clear. In last nights game between Shamrock and Sligo, anyone who did not scalp pre-game the result was a scratch plain and simple.

The game reached HT at 0-0 with little goalmouth action. The correct decision was to exit as per the strat description leaving the possibility of an escape if three goals were scored in the second half. However I also presented an option for those who were prepared to take a risk for an additional £15 loss. That was to close the CS which was showing a loss of £3 and leave the unders untouched and perhaps start to trade out if two quick goals materialised.

Shamrock scored on 60 minutes and to my surprise there were quite a few excited members stating that the Homer had succeeded. To be honest I was shocked as I realised that some members did not exit at all. The whole basis of making any kind of long term profit is to be totally disciplined. What is the point of having an exit strategy which some members choose to ignore. They had got away with it and went away with a £19.50 profit but they had risked the full liabilty of £65 to acheive this. It's not trading, it's gambling.

For those that chose the riskier option of closing the CS but leaving the unders market open, the 60th minute goal didn't make much impact so there was little option but to continue to leave the unders market open. Shamrock then had a player sent off which was not a good thing as you would expect them to park the bus to protect their lead. As far as the rest of us still in the trade were concerned it was almost certain curtains for the trade.

On the 80th minute Sligo equalised and unders rose to the price it had started at and the trade could be exited for a scratch, however everyone who had decided to risk that extra £15 decided to continue. One minute into injury time and Shamrock were down to nine men as another red card was issued. The last kick of the game Sligo scored and pandemonium broke out with the realisation that traders on single stakes had just won £46 an ROI of 73%.

There is nothing wrong with taking that extra risk and accept a higher loss but what is not acceptable is to continue blindly and risk it all.

For me and anyone else who had scalped the 0-0 it was a strong profit. As I had scalped 0-0 I was able to continue until 55 minutes when I closed the CS for a £10 profit. By this time unders had reached 1.05 so there was absolutely no point in doing anything with it and I had resigned myself that 3 goals would never be scored in the last 35 minutes and that it was likely that the trade would be my first red in 9 games. The rest is history as I collected the full overs profit plus my CS profit. An ROI of 90%.


gundulf said...

This revisits the conversation we had the other night about quitting winning trades too early and holding onto a losing trade too long in the (usually) vain hope that it will turn itself around.

People were fortunate that night... but long term as you say there is no future in pursuing that course of action. Good tho the strat is it won't survive too many wipeouts at £65 a pop!

GolfingGolfer said...

Sounds familiar Gun!

Beware of the disposition effect :-)