Wednesday, 21 September 2011


I have mentioned previously that I have developed a family of Homer strategies. Apart from the main strat which is where the vast majority are picked from, I also have the HomerActive and HomerDog. To be honest the strong success of Homer over the past few weeks has meant that I have rather neglected it's smaller siblings. 

The HomerActive has a very similar structure to Homer but it starts in play from anywhere between the 20th and 30th minutes where the score is still 0-0. There is an element of risk as the trades are not executed at the same time. It can also be a bit frantic as the prices are rapidly on the move but the rewards are higher and the max loss is the same as Homer. There is only a very rough idea pre-match which games may lead to an opportunity but the decision to pick will be made around 15 minutes in play and even then it could be scuppered by a goal. The structure is not black and white, every Active trade is slightly different to each other which makes it very difficult to document it. Only top league games with plenty of liquidity can be traded as a group as otherwise there will not be enough cash in the market to go around


The HomerDog is a strat that I have been testing on and off over the past few months. It's main objective is for a home team goal where the away team is a strong favourite. It is not often that I find a game where I strongly feel that the MO prices are wrong and it's this opinion that can lead to a HomerDog opportunity. The game that stood out a mile for me was Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough. Crystal Palace were approx 3.3 and Middlesbrough 2.3. I assume Middlesbrough were priced low as they had won six out of six league and cup away games including a 1-0 win at Selhurst Park last weekend. However Carling Cup games normally lead to large team changes and this is exactly what these two teams did making the stats for each teams recent form irrelevant.  As you would expect with a big underdog, the CS prices were much higher. 1-0 was 12.50, 2-0 was 22's.  I offered the trade in the TF green room and a few jumped on with me. Unders was much higher than the maximum entry point so we took extra cover on the FG with the aim of executing the lay on 20 minutes. We could afford to do this thanks to the very high CS prices. In  the end the home goal came in the 18th minute which was just short of the lay but gained a profit from the FG and CS with an ROI OF 39%. It was picked on facebook so is added to the results spreadsheet.

I am nearly ready to document it and hopefully it will be included in MM at some point.

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