Friday, 28 October 2011

Homer News

Bringing my exploits up to date, on Tuesday whilst most sane people were trading the Arsenal cup game I traded a very different Arsenal team. Arsenal FC V San Lorenzo in an Argentinian league match. I was drawn to it as the prices were very good. It kicked off a little earlier than the UK games so I was wary of the chance of poor liquidity which meant it was only using single stakes which for me I class as a fun trade. As it happened the markets were reasonably okay but whilst there was excitement and positivity in the TF chat room as the UK games were reaping profits, my little trade went down the pan!  The home goal came in the 75th minute which was far too late.  There is not much you can do when a game plods on well into the second half with no goals. The more you scalp of the 0-0 pre-game the longer you can progress but going too deep into the second half will see unders close to 1.01 with that full liability realised you will also be putting at risk the scenario of an away goal which would put you in serious trouble as 0-1 is not covered and the later the away goal the lesser the impact on the unders price. That home goal on 75 minutes was far too late and the only benefactors would have been the non-disciplined gamblers who whilst breathing a big sigh of relief this time will only find their bank empty over the medium term. ROI -39.00%.

On Wednesday I traded the HomerDog Stoke v Liverpool. I felt that with Stoke's home record plus teams that will not be the same come the weekend that it was worth a go. I was heading to my first strat loss since I had secured the trading parameters to start recording the results and was saved thanks to a first half added time goal. Liverpool then brought the big guns on in the second half, took control and won the game ROI 36.79%.

Yesterday I lead the Homer of Espanyol v Real Betis in the chat room and unfortunately the game played out the same way as on Tuesday. 1-0 towards the end of the game and ROI -37.49%. So two consecutive Homer defeats with a happy Dog in between.

I quickly got my money back as I jumped on a greyhound tip made in the chat room and pencilled in a possible HomerActive Ath Bilbao v Ath Madrid. Liquidity wasn't great but it was just about okay to safely trade. The idea is to enter the market on 20 to 25 minutes whilst the score is still 0-0. The 1-0 was about 7.4 on 20 minutes which is about right and then it suddenly jumped up to 8.4 with a fair value available. I immediately took that price and a few seconds after I was matched it dropped down to 6.8. Well that set me up for a well above average profit if the home goal arrived and it finished unders. Bilbao scored around the 70th minute which was about 5 minutes before I was due to exit. I then had the opportunity to lay some of that lovely 1-0 to boost the unders profit but to be honest the game was poor up to that point and I didn't think there were two more goals left in the game. How wrong I was as it ended 3-0 and the standard overs profit. ROI 35.40%.

So a mixed few days which leaves the months profit if at single stakes £109.98. I only trade at single stakes when liquidity is low.

You may have noticed that I have added a banner to the left where you can register your interest in purchasing the Homer. I am not putting up any flashy 'squeeze' page or telling you how wonderful my system is. I see them all the time and I just find them patronising. Hurry as there are only 3 left and the price is going up tomorrow sort of thing. I have said before that the Nugget Crew over at TF introduced me into how to make a decent attempt and trading football. They helped me to think for myself which is how I got into devising my own original idea. It wasn't an overnight production, it evolved over time until I was happy to introduce it to the TF members as a genuine thank you. The single Homer strategy is also available at BSN due to the close association with TF. 

However, the important price criteria did not produce enough picks to trade many games on a daily basis so I was developing other Homer based strats to compliment and it wasn't easy to find the right balance.  I have spent so much time with testing, generating the facebook group, being in the chat room for most days, chatting on facebook, generally being available to answer any queries and keeping up with this blog that I feel that it's time to reward myself for the time I have been helping and sharing with others. The Homer interest has grown into something that I could never have imagined and I have to take a step back and think of what is right for me.

What I plan to do is to introduce a service to have two options. The first is to make available the Homer, HomerDog and HomerActive as a comprehensive PDF document with free lifetime access to any other Homer family strategy that I make available for example the HomerActiveDog which I am working on and will be available to offer support. I will also be supplying the Homer results spreadsheet which will have all the formulas set up and very easy to maintain for those who are not familiar with Excel. It will be an unprotected spreadsheet unlike my ResultMaster product which is fully protected from copying etc. I plan to make this available for a one off £29.99.

The other option is to enhance what I have been doing on facebook for the TF members and that is to send daily emails which will give details of the upcoming games which one's I am monitoring and why. What games I am going to avoid and why.  The all important staking. I will provide a four day rolling position on the upcoming games. Naturally a four day lead time will be used as a guide only so that subscribers can plan well ahead and know what I am thinking. I will also discuss the development of any other strats that I am looking at and make videos available to support the strats.

This is a big commitment from me and one that I assure I will not be taking for granted. If I am going to have paying subscribers I am going to ensure that the information is delivered accurately and timely and that you are getting value for money. There will be no more last minute instructions for games that I trade for the Homer and HomerDog. This will be true for most of the HomerActives but there are occasions when a game does not start as anything near Active potential and then develops into one as the game progresses. I will fire emails out to all subscribers when that happens so there will be times where there will be a last minute panic. I will also be supplying the Homer results spreadsheet.  If anyone is interested in this offer I plan to make the PDF strats available for £19.99 with a modest monthly subscription of £9.99.

I will discuss the possibility of adding the HomerDog and HomerActive to MarketMatcher (BSN)  but only the Homer strat will be available there as it is now. I strongly recommend that you subscribe to BSN for a one off payment of £39.99. The banner is on the right.  I will continue to support the excellent TF and play an active part of their community as usual.

We all see across the Betfair forum the mention that if a system is any good it won't be shared as you lose your edge. Not necessarily. The three strats will not be affected when trading the premium leagues as there is enough cash to go round. HomerActive is only advised to be used for the premium european leagues. For the secondary leagues Homer and HomerDog will be fine.

This strategies are not a guarantee of future profit but my results has shown that the strike rate has been consistent.

At this stage please register your interest on the left so that I can gauge the numbers. Obviously if there is not much interest then I won't proceed with the monthly subscription. Having said that I put the banner up an hour ago without this post and I am already getting  response. If I do proceed I will make a formal list of the subscription benefits before making it available for purchase. I expect to launch after I have tied up a couple of things in the next couple of weeks.


GolfingGolfer said...

Good luck Andy, people should be biting your hand off for a proven strategy and the support that comes with it!!

gundulf said...

I'll second that andy! And I wouldn't take the bf forum too seriously, either!