Wednesday, 12 October 2011

Walking the Dog

I have now updated the spreadsheet so that the results are split between each strategy. This is particularly important with the Homer proven and others in test. I have added the HomerActiveDog although I don't plan to do anything with it for a little while.

My current focus is on the HDog and Mondays trade of Oldham v MK Dons went perfectly. I have been waiting for the scenario of a late goal to assess the following price movements. It is definitely worth trading out at 1-0 which is not the case for a Homer.  The ROI was a generous 51.59%. In monetary terms I had £60 of liability with an exit loss of £23 and profited with just under £32.

The 0-1 in a HDog trade will cause more problems than a Homer. The market is expecting that the away team will win so the 1-1 will not be as low. Naturally a second goal will push the overs to the fore in the same way as a Homer but if the score remains 0-1  there needs to be something to soften the blow. I think I may have found it. It is pleasing that I have had no losses since I decided that it was stable enough to record the results, however I am not getting carried away after just six results especially as there have been many losses during it's early testing. It is just as important to see how losing trades play out so the exit points can be reinforced.

I was thinking yesterday about trading the HDog with the game Denmark v Holland but decided to have a day without trading. That was a shame as the game played out nicely and would have been a good profit.

As far as the Homer is concerned I am not comfortable with the revised staking I introduced a few weeks ago as it leaves the 1-0 short particularly if the goal comes just before the max loss exit because the post goal 1-0 price will need more topping up than the usual.  It has also given situations where the max loss has been acheived a couple of minutes before HT. One of the answers is to increase the minimum price parameters but that would make match selection which is already sparse, even less which is not desirable. Trading is about offsetting the good with the bad. If the answer was simple we would all be millionaires but the reality on trading exchanges is that where there are winners there are losers. I suggest for the time being reducing the lay from £52 to £50 and perhaps shave a bit off the FG.

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