The Weekends Thoughts

Now that I am satisfied with the Homers long term performance. I want to spend more of my time developing the Dog and reinforcing the Active strategy. I am wary that the Dog is very much work in progress but recently I have been prepared to announce my picks, add them to my overall results and offer them out to a handful of hard core Homerites on the understanding that the strategy is not the finished product nor is it proven. I have been looking at this concept since July and whilst the early phases had mixed results with more losses than wins there has been a gradual improvement as time has gone by. 

MarketMatcher has been an essential element in my experimental process. With so much research needed this tool has saved me hours of valuable time and given me the incentive to continue to develop new ideas. Don't under estimate the power of this very simple tool, especially the custom search. If the developers can just add a facility to save custom searches it would be the icing on the cake. Click on the Betting System Notes banner in the right column for more information.

I am at the stage now where I am happy with the price parameters of the Dog but still trying out slightly different staking methods to extract the best value possible. Naturally it will be more profitable than the Homer across the three CS's although the overs result will be the same .Over the long term we know that the market get's it right therefore it is reasonable to expect that a HomerDog will not have the same win ratio as the Homer. This means it is essential that the picks are sensible and that the CS winning trade extracts more profit than the Homer whilst leaving the max loss exit the same as the Homer. I am trying to make the profit gap between greening up and letting it run the whole game as close as possible as it is in everyone's interest to secure an acceptable profit as soon as possible to free up the bank.

Whilst the Homer and Dog are rigid, the Active is far from it. There are many in play strats out there with one or two trades but I do not know any where a complete strat containing at least four different trades are fired into the market well into play. It is such an instinctive strategy that you may not have ever thought of trading the game until you see a scenario at a particular moment. For me this moment was last night with the game Almeria v Real Valladolid. MM confirmed the game had the Homer pricing but I was concerned that all the prices were on the very edge of qualifying and that an end to end game would result in the overs not reducing significantly enough that could leave a difficult risky situation. Some TF members decided to trade the Homer and the unders reduced nicely for them.  I continued to monitor the markets when after twenty minutes I noticed a scenario that I had never seen before. The unders were reducing nicely but the 1-0 and 1-1 were not moving. There are always games where the away team is dominating in a game at Homer prices but that 1-0 still reduces but at a slower rate. This gave the opportunity of a HomerActive that would have looked totally impossible at KO. I got on it and there was significant liquidity to offer it up complete with staking to all members in the chat room. Quite a few jumped on with me and the goal five minutes before half time secured the profit not only for the Active but for the Homer too. The final score was 1-1 which gives the biggest profit across the CS.  For the Active traders a score of overs would have given a much higher profit as the price was 1.45 instead of the Homers 1.70.

The summary of the weekends trades are as follows.

Friday 7/10 Czech Rep v Spain  HomerDog. Spain scored on 2 minutes so the insurance kicked in and the trade ended there with a scratch. ROI -7.31%.

Sunday 9/10 Albinoleffe v Livorno HomerDog. The pick was chosen with the objective of a good performance of the home team. It was far from that scenario as Livorno took them apart and were soon in a 0-2 lead. The important third goal came soon after the restart. ROI 29.68%.

Sunday 9/10 Gimnastic v Cartagena Homer. These were the bottom two teams. Both has played six and had still to chalk up their first win and had managed just seven goals. This is a classic Homer pick as two very poor sides up against each other normally results in goals. How wrong could I be as the final score was the dreaded 0-0. ROI -37.52%.

Sunday 9/10  Almeria v Real Valladolid HomerActive. ROI 41.03%.

Now that I will be using the Dog and Active more, I will keep a record of the strategy by type in addition to the total record.

As far as other trades are concerned I had a nice lay of Hamilton in the F1 on the basis of his recent reckless form and the added possibility of letting his team mate Button through if required. Hamilton's early puncture and his aggressive personal battle with Massa secured the profit. I also put in a lay of the Notts.County v Hartlepool score as the game entered added time which was also a great success.