Wednesday, 28 September 2011

Update Since Last Friday

I was thinking about where I want to go with this blog. It was supposed to be a diary of my sports trading which was dominated by my up and down horse racing exploits in the early days. Then after a few months neglect I seem to be posting regularly but this has not been a concious effort, I have just been recording the success I am acheiving with my strategy.

I am surprised but appreciative with the numbers that continue to follow the blog but having read back all my entries this year is it really interesting to see post after post about the Homer?  It is for me but I don't think it is for most. I also think it gives the impression of arrogance which in actual fact is the last thing I want to portray. Perhaps it's just the excitement that after years of struggling I have actually got something solid to build on.

I mentioned previously that I was going to trade the horses less and focus on the parts of trading that I am consistently good at. With the main evening racing over it was always going to happen anyway but strangely I really miss getting stuck in with those ladders. It has always been stressful and frustrating but I still feel drawn to it however it is going to be very difficult to find time for a session or two on weekends or the odd late meeting on weekdays but I am going to try to make the effort.

Anyway, so where is all this waffle leading?


Well as usual I don't really know other than to say that I will make it more interesting by including all my other sports trades although my Homer progress will always be the main topic.

So let's bring things up to date on the Homer front.

Sat 24/9 Derby v Millwall - What a strange set of prices that was.  At the time Derby was 4th and Millwall was 16th. Friday's MO price for Derby was 2.50 but throughout Saturday morning the price drifted and at KO was 3.20 whilst Millwall was 2.60. How could that be? It just didn't make any sense! In the past I have left these games alone but Derby's CS prices were very meaty so I would have been foolish to have ignored the opportunity. The trade was the HomerDog the result was 3-0 and the job done! ROI 38.26%

Sat 24/9 West Brom v Fulham - This one was not so good. I had 0-0 scalped which gave me the extra minutes but it seemed more obvious as they game progressed that this was going to end 0-0. ROI -37.75%

Mon 26/9 Norwich v Sunderland - This game played out perfectly for the Homer but I made a staking error when I layed the unders which meant that my profit was short on what it should have been. ROI 20.13%.

Tue 27/9 Derby v Barnsley - Another winner but this was lucky as it could have easily been a loss. Barnsley had taken the lead against the run of play. At HT the single stake loss was only £8 thanks to the 1-1 price which was far lower than it usually is. The exit point is £20 and I was £1 short of that when Derby equalised in the 62nd min. Another 30 seconds and I would have started exiting. The scenario of a 0-1 HT score normally means a potential loss of about £12 which would allow the trade to continue until 55 mins. It finished 1-1 which is the highest green. ROI 39.97%..The profit for September would be just short of £280 if using single stakes.

In addition to the Derby Homer I made two speculative lays. One was laying 2-3 in the Man. Utd game as they seem to score very late regularly and that paid off. The other was laying 1-1 in the Derby game on 89 minutes for minimal liability. Unfortunately that didn't come off.

2 comments:

Peter "redimp"Hunt said...

You certainly don't come across as arrogant Andy. It's quite clear you put a lot of work in to the Homer family and as your results show, it pays off. Nice work buddy.

Pete

Jackhulk said...

Hi Andy. Congrats with Homer! I too had my break through year this year by switching sports, and in joy want to shout about it to the world! It's only natural I feel after putting in so much effort and hard work since 2003 (on & off)! May the Homer success continue!

I hope to get in on the action at some point too (when I have time), but wondering which site to sign up to for it, Betting System Notes or Tradingfootball.eu? Any benefits over the other with regards to Homer?