Saturday, 22 October 2011

Risk & Reward

Three wins in a row and October is looking much healthier.

Thursday saw Tottenham v Rubin Kazan. I don't trade Europa group games as these are often dour affairs with teams full of second string squad players but I had a play around on the PMT tool which is something I should be using more considering I am paying monthly for it. I managed to gain free green on the under 2.5, 1-0 & 1-1 so it didn't cost me that much more to add to the CS backs. That wonderful free kick ensured an ROI of 41.34%.

On Friday I continued my testing of the HomerDog on St.Patricks v Derry. The home team sat one place behind Derry but the prices suggested that the away team was by far the strongest. I opposed this view and was rewarded by the home goal on thirty minutes. Things got even better when Derry equalised which was the highest green. I laid some of the 1-1 off towards the end so the overs could be bumped up in case of another goal. That was an ROI of 48.06%. The HomerDog is now at 7 wins and 1 scratch since I have been confident enough to start recording the results. I have of course tested it far more over the past few months. I will make the strategy and parameters available very soon along with the HomerActive.

Late last night I noticed a nicely priced Homer opportunity for a 6am game of Yokohama v Urawa. It was 4th against 16th in a league with eighteen teams. Liquidity was very low and I took that as the reason for such pricing. However I put my alarm on for 5.30am to review the prices and was pleasantly surprised to see the prices retained at much higher liquidity. It was one of those really strong opportunities that doesn't appear that often and I committed to the trade. The home goal arrived on four minutes and I was able to end the trade from the insurance at an ROI of 36.84%. In monetary terms at single stakes the liability was £30 and the profit was £11. As it happened the game finished 1-2 so perhaps there was a reasonable explanation to the generous home pricing.

The average single stakes across the entire Homer family is £54.52. If I only include games where the lay was matched the average is £57.84. When I state the return on investment it is based on the initial liability as that is what is committed from the bank but of course in real terms the strategy is risking just £23 with a profit of anywhere between £18 (78%) and £30 (130%)

This is why when the prices are in the zone this strategy is a no brainer. It is also a very safe trade for those that want to know where they stand before they make the commitment to risk their bank. In very simple terms at single stakes you either win £23ish or lose £23ish. At four times stakes it's almost £100 either way. So as long as the discipline to exit is set in stone the strategy only needs a no loss strike rat of 50.01% to be profitable. The strike rate is currently 73.60%.

As far as discipline is concerned why continue past the max loss exit point and put more and more of your liability at risk against the same amount of profit you would have had the chance of winning from the start. At 90 minutes with the score 0-0 you risk losing up to nearly three times more and would win less than average as a 1-0 goal at the very end will not leave any value in topping up it up as the 1-0 has the lowest green. 

No comments: