Turkey is not just for Christmas

The Homer is starting to pick up again with 7 wins and 1 scratch in the last 9 trades. Three of these were Turkish league games with teams that I can barely announce. It was surprising how high the liquidity was for these games. It was not tremendous but certainly more than enough to trade. Perhaps it was because there were not too many games on at the same time.

I traded a Portugal game for the first time. I decided to trade it as I had a considerable green from scalping 0-0 and the fact it was a cup QF game and the other three ties all finished as overs. Unfortunately it was all over in two minutes and the game was a scratch. The final score was 2-2.

December trades at single stakes is currently showing a profit of £94. Not fantastic but a welcome change to November.

I would like to take this opportunity to wish you and your family a very happy Christmas.

December Update

It has been 10 days since my last post but it only seems like yesterday. I seem to be far busier than when I was working and can't believe that Christmas is almost upon us. I know I said that I would be posting every day but it really is an impossible task at the moment.

Above is my P&L since last time (P&L blog bashers look away now) and as you can see I have been treading water. Positives are that as the first two days were very good, the monthly profit is £253. Negatives are that £23 over the10 days is not going to pay the bills!

I have updated the Homer traded results page and December is more or less running level. It is an improvement on the struggle in November but not anywhere near the fantastic performance before then. So what's gone wrong? I took the day off trading to concentrate on evaluating my results. Is it just unlucky or was my previous six months of success just a lucky streak? I think I may have a contributing factor and it's in England!

Between May and September I traded 23 English league games:

16 profit

1 scratch

6 losses

Between October and today I have traded 27 English league games

10 profit

3 scratch

14 losses

I have traded a total of 86 games since the beginning of October and the English games has counted towards 34% of those. It is the only country where losses are more than the wins. My best success was between May and August where English games were few.

How many English games did I trade between May and July? The answer is zero.

If I remove the English league my trend continues as normal. My overall no loss strike rate increases from 69% to 72%.

Having said all that I have examined many statistic sites and cannot find a trend that differs in the English league so perhaps I am just trying too hard and picking far more English fixtures than I should to make the weekend far more interesting for members. I will certainly be cutting down in the future. I am certainly not relaxed as I used to be and this could also be affecting my judgement.

I am currently testing a new variation. Extreme HomerDog. This is where the away team is by far the favourite and a winning trade should give a profit around the forties against single stakes ROI should be at least 75%. I have traded three with two winners of which one was the FG and one loser.

The horse racing has been hit and miss too. I have been upping my stakes which has only meant that instead of winning and losing £5 to £20 I am now winning and losing £10 to £40. I traded 146 races over the past 10 days and have come out with a profit of £83 or £1.76 per race. This is a mixture between pre-race and in running. I just can't get out of the 'round in circles' mode that has affected me since I started trading horses nearly five years ago. I invested in some pre race training a few months back which I have not focused on as I have been so busy with Homer but will be devoting time towards it especially as I now have time to trade in the afternoons.

I will give the trading until the end of January and if the results do not show significant improvement to sustain a decent living then I will be looking for a more stable income.

 

Boxing Clever

December has got off to a super start with profits across Horse Racing, Football and this evenings Boxing match which I had no intention of getting involved with.The football P&L is a little lower then the months Homer P&L to the right due to a losing non Homer trade.

I was watching the WBA middleweight clash between the champion Sturm and outsider Murray. Sturm got off to a good start but Murray was slowly coming into it and by the end of the ninth round I had them level. I had a look at the market at that point and Sturm was trading around the late 1.30's and the draw was 42's. First thing I did was look to see if I was watching the fight live or was my Sky Plus running behind! No, everything was in order and I just couldn't believe how the market and priced the fight up. To say there was value was an understatement!

I don't know too much about the Boxing market but my eyes are in good working order. So I placed a lay of £50 on Sturm and popped a tiny £1 back on the draw  which added to the amount from the lay. Perhaps in hindsight I should have lumped on but I wasn't totally comfortable as this sport is one that I rarely get involved with.

At the end I thought that Murray had just done enough to win but was extremely pleased to find that the fight was a draw and a nice £90 profit. You can see below that even after the fight had finished Sturm was 1.25.

Round in Circles

Running a service on my own plus trying to get a good days trading behind me is far harder than I could ever have imagined. I seem to always be on the go and spare time is at a premium. This is why there have been a few days without a post.  However I am thoroughly enjoying myself and wouldn't have it any other way.

The screenshot above looks like I have had a fairly placid last few days but it has been far from that. The horse racing includes two separate £100 losses.  I always make sure that when I back in a chase or hurdles, I stay in the trade for as little time as possible. In these cases I was extremely unlucky as both fell a few seconds after I opened the trade.

It was a similar situation with the football. Having multi staked with two losers on Saturday and then a loss on the Swansea game on Sunday, I then staked very heavily on the Liverpool v Manchester City which brought me back towards profitability. I then cemented the come back with three winning Homers on Monday. 

£100 over five days is not going to feed the family but at least it is not a loss. I did not post today's P&L as I started writing this earlier in the day but now its late here it is.

So let's see the final scores on the doors for November.

Traded Matches 27

Profit = 11 Minimum ROI 27.87%, Maximum ROI 57.81%

Scratch = 3 Average ROI -2.64%

Loss = 13 Minimum ROI -9.30%, Maximum ROI -45.33%

Overall P&L if using single stakes = -£81.53

Average P&L across all 27 matches = -£3.02

Average Liability = £60.67

Average ROI = -3.87%

A loss every 2.08 matches.

Longest winning run = 4

Longest losing run = 3

Another Green Day

Another Horse Racing session with the guys at TF combined with my own strategy which resulted in a profit of almost £50. However at one point I was up £80 but got caught in between trades when a horse fell. I have upped my bank quite considerably not only for the horses but for scalping from the PMT tool too so that I can open more than one lay trade at a time.  I am looking for an average daily profit of £80 but will not force any trades just because I am short. Over the two days I am at an average of £73.

There were no Homer picks from me for yesterday but there were four qualifying games. Three were guaranteed winners, the other match would have been either a winner or scratch depending on the route that was take after 0-2.

A Clear Mind and my Daily Challenge

Now that I am unemployed for the first time in my working career, I have a weird feeling of complete release. As if I have had a weight lifted off my shoulders. I can now fully focus on doing something that I truly love to do and perhaps this totally relaxed state will aid my trading. How I perform over the next  month will decide whether I can take that step into trading full time.

I have therefore decided to put myself in the spotlight and record my P&L each day. If I have a truly dreadful day then you will see it in all it's glory. The fact that I am committing myself with my results may hold me back from making any stupid decisions.

This afternoon I tackled the horse racing and used a combination of Robbo's excellent in play advice over at TF, together with my own pre-race and in-play strategies.  It didn't start well as I lost £24 in the first race but then I picked things up nicely throughout most of the rest of the card until I lost £25 over two races near the end. The end result was a profit of almost £40.

I then moved into the evening session with a HomerDog of Leverkusen v Chelsea. Yet again HT was a disappointing 0-0. I had scalped the 0-0 so decided to exit with a scratch rather than continue to 55 minutes. For the members who hadn't scalped, they implemented the exit rules and the trade was saved thanks to the last minute third goal. ROI -3.75%

I managed to make a profit from the game after I laid the current score at 1.24 which gave me some satisfaction. This enabled me to accumulate just short of £100 for the day.  This is the sort of daily result that is needed consistently if I am ever going to consider making this a full time occupation.

A Weekend To Forget!

Trading is all about taking the rough with the smooth but making sure that the smooth is more dominant to obtain long term success. Having had a relatively smooth ride these last seven or so months my Homer family picks hit rough waters at the end of October and are still traversing through them. That is not to say that the strategies are heading towards Niagara Falls, indeed they are still producing result after result. Over the weekend MarketMatcher highlighted eight Homers. I picked three which all lost. The other five won. However despite this temporary difficulty my picks still have a no loss strike rate above 70%. 

For the members who have followed me through TF they recognise that this is a temporary blip but for those who are brand new to the strategy it is more difficult to accept and I can appreciate that. How many times do I keep saying that you can do the all the homework you want for any football strategy but you have no control once the game kicks off. Let's bring the results up to date since the successful Colombia HomerDog.

Friday 18/11 Kaiserslautern v  Leverkusen. HomerDog. This was 0-0 at HT. The away team scored on 54 minutes which is the worst time for the away goal. This game finished 0-2 despite 24 shots on target in what was a very entertaining game. ROI -41.02%.

Saturday 19/11 Sunderland v Fulham. Homer. This had a lively first half and the home team were unlucky to have scored but while goals were being scored all around the Premier League, this game petered out in the second half to finish 0-0. ROI -36.70%.

Saturday 19/11 Fiorentina v AC Milan. HomerDog. The perfect pick with the home team's great goalscoring record at home and Milans recent scintillating form. Milan had a perfectly good goal ruled out for offside which would have set us on the way but it was not to be.  I staked heavy but paid the price. FT 0-0. No home goals in the three traded games.ROI -39.92%

Sunday 20/11 Elche v Deportivo. Homer. I wasn't planning on trading this as liquidity was low but I received a few emails from members asking for me to stake it. That drove my interest and a handful of us were at the console for the 11am kick off. A goal in the 20th minute secured the profit. It ended as an overs result. ROI 27.87%.

Sunday 20/11 Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano. Homer. This was as poor as a game can get with two sides who would struggle to beat a lower division Sunday pub team. Osasuna had been scoring at home but seemed to be still affected by the week before's 7-1 away defeat to Real Madrid.Yet another 0-0. ROI -38.42%.

Sunday 20/11 Hamburg v Hoffenheim. HomerActive. This is the first time I traded this strategy with a group. We got on in the 20th minute. The goal came 5 minutes later. FT 2-0. ROI 28.14%

Tuesday 22/11 CSKA Moscow v Lille. Homer. The home team needed the home win to secure qualification and had been scoring for fun at home. However, just  like the previous picks the form was out of the window as Lille dominated. The 0-2 score meant another loss. ROI -45.33%.

What was ironic was some members against my advice traded the Homer Granada v Mallorca and secured the profit only for the game to be abandoned after 61 minutes due to the linesmen being hit in the face by a brolly!  Perhaps the weekend was never meant to be.  

Weekend - 7 Trades. 2 wins, 5 losses and just 3 home goals. At single stakes that is a loss of £95.

Overall - 201 Trades. 125 wins, 17 scratches, 59 losses.

The in-play console which I only introduced by overwhelming demand by the members has worked well. It is only used during Homer fixtures exclusively for those strategies.

Now that I am officially unemployed, I am going to start trading the horses in the afternoon and will report on my progress.

Stay positive. Onwards and upwards.

A Geeks Toy supports Children in Need

It's Children in Need weekend and that means that the team at A Geeks Toy have organised various fundraising activities to support this important project. Please pop over to their forum to see what activities are in play.

Talking about 'in-play', AGT will be upgraded on Monday to include this new feature. 

The application is already rich in important features. The current version 1.2 beta has new functions such as Stop Loss, Dutching, Bookmaking and the Multibet tool. 

In addition, the application will soon be available for the Betdaq markets. 

But there is one feature that dwarfs all others......the application is totally FREE!!!! 

A Geeks Toy Pro.....Probably the best Betfair Trading Software in the world!

Can't Wait Until the Weekend

This morning I have released my newsletter which contains picks and a watch list for the fixtures on Friday evening through to Saturday evening.  There are three firm picks subject to movements in price and nine others on the rolling watch list. 

For those who are members of Betting System Notes, Saturdays Homer selections will not appear on MarketMatcher until 48 hours before the match is due to kick off. Purchasing the Homer Family strategies and subscribing to my daily service will ensure that potential Saturday Homer Family fixtures will be highlighted at least 54 hours before kick off as I will examine each and every game. I rarely pick French or Scottish games but ALL games with potential Homer pricing will be highlighted together with my personal opinion on the fixture.

If anyone who has subscribed to the daily service has not received the newsletter then please contact me via email so I can investigate.

Colombia v Argentina. The Perfect HomerDog

It has been an extremely hectic week since the strategies have been released but now the peak is over I can now focus on the blog. I can now give a brief review of the opening three official picks and update the results on the right and on my spreadsheet under the 'Homer Results' tab.

However, firstly big thanks have to go to Bingo and Robbo who both gave a scintillating performance with their advice on the afternoons horse racing over at TF yesterday. They advised the entries and exits points on most of the in-play racing and came up trumps every time. It was clear that this wasn't guesswork. Both had done meticulous research as they justified their picks. It was a great alternative to the football in a week where the fixtures for trading have been poor.

The first official pick since the release of the strategies was Friday's HomerDog of England v Spain. I rarely get involved with friendlies but thought that England and the corresponding CS prices were grossly overpriced and it was worth a look. It was clear midway through the first half England's intention was to defend at all costs as if it was some kind of experiment to prove to their critics that they can defend against the best in the world. However this was at the cost of having no attacking strategy. It was as if Capello told the team that scoring wasn't important. The unders dropped quicker than a lead balloon and we were faced with an unbelievable scenario of the MLE at 37 minutes. The MLE has always been reached at half time at the absolute earliest so this was a unique situation. With so much going on I did not have any time to scalp and so exited at 37 minutes and a loss to start the service. ROI -38.11%. Those that had a full 0-0 scalp would last to 50 minutes and would have been rewarded by the 47th minute goal. I cannot emphasise enough how important it is to learn and successfully execute the scalp. In the end the basis of my pick was right as England came out winners.

On Sunday saw the Homer trade of Deportivo v Celta Vigo. This game provided a small profit as the 4th minute 1-0 ensured that the insurance kicked in.  It was however a disappointment that the strategy wasn't give the opportunity to be used in full. ROI 31.33%

Yesterday I picked the HomerDog of Colombia v Argentina. Argentina have been struggling away and I felt it was a good opportunity for the underdog to at least get on the score sheet if not win the game. I prepared properly for this trade and was fully scalped on the 0-1 and half scalped on the 0-0. This left me in a very strong position but could still lose if the game remained 0-0 up to 60 minutes.

The home goal came very late in the first half which just shows what a fine line there is between winning and losing. As it was so late the market it settled at greatly reduced prices in addition we had a fantastic unders price of 1.47 enabling everyone who was chatting on Facebook to green up for a £30 profit to single stakes. ROI 57.81% The game ended 1-2 so anyone who left the trade open won £18.50.

Over the three games we have had three very different scenario's that has produced two greens and one red. At single stakes the fees for the Family of Homer Strategies document is well on it's way to being covered.

There have been no opportunities to introduce the HomerActive but I am sure we can find one or two games over the busy weekend. It is not the easiest to trade but I am sure it will be an interesting experience for members.

I will also be doing various videos of my trading and how I use A Geeks Toy to scalp, monitor and exit trades.